AFL Round 4 Tips & Preview

We’re almost a month into the 2022 AFL season and we’re really starting to get a feel for how this year will pan out.

Or are we?

Some remain Owen-three

Some have the lid-off

Some are hit and miss

and some just might be done and dusted already.

Either way, the Punters’ never-ending quest to find winners continues week after week and we’re confident we’ve found a few of them in our AFL Round 4 Tips and Preview

PORT ADELAIDE VS MELBOURNE
Melbourne 1-39 points @ $2.10

I wrote in last week’s preview that if Port lost to Adelaide in the Showdown, I’d never back them again this season.

Turns out they lost the Showdown with a kick after the siren, started the season 0-3 and now face the Demons on Thursday night.

One look at Port Adelaide’s draw and there’s every chance the Power starts the season 0-5.

I cannot possibly make a case for the Power to get their season on track by defeating reigning premiers Melbourne.

The Dees are $1.38 favourites, and quite frankly that’s generous.

It should be shorter.

Expect this game to have Port on the defence, but Melbourne to get the job done.

Take the Dees 1-39 points at the $2.10 offer – it’s solid.

GEELONG VS BRISBANE LIONS
Brisbane Lions @ $2.10

The Cats and Lions on Friday night should be a beauty.

When these two sides met last year at this respective venue, everyone knows that Brisbane/Zac Bailey was robbed and Geelong got the greatest home-cooking treatment from the umps in years.

As for this game, there’s no doubting how impressive Geelong was to stage that big comeback over the Magpies last weekend with big Jezza Cameron leading the way as the Catters got the job done in Joel Selwood’s milestone game.

Can they back it up against the Lions who have started the season 3-0, and come off hacking the bone at a hopeless North Melbourne last week at the Gabba.

The Lions have beaten Port, Essendon and North – so Geelong at GMHBA Stadium is no doubt their biggest test so far in season 2022, but they’ll be more than prepared for it given they started planning for this game midway into the second quarter against the Kangas.

Lions at $2.10 for the win makes for some outstanding value.

AFLW Grand Final - Adelaide v Melbourne
Over 62.5 points @ $2

A special mention to the AFLW Grand Final taking place this Saturday arvo between the Crows and Dees at Adelaide Oval.

This matchup between the two foundation clubs is set to be a beauty with the likes of Daisy Pearce/Tayla Harris on one end and the great Erin Phillips on the other.

For Adelaide, this is their fourth AFLW Grand Final and a first for the Demons who have been oh-so-close throughout their W history but have never reached the big one.

It should be a cracking contest and anyone’s game.

Both sides have the ability to get a big score and you can expect plenty of attacking footy.

With the Grand Final experience and game being played at Adelaide Oval, the Crows open as $1.65 favourites, but it’s worth remembering they were beaten by the Lions in the GF last year.

Melbourne is the $2.20 underdog.

The two sides met in Round 4 of the AFLW season, when the Crows managed to beat the Demons by 14 points.

It’s truly up for grabs, and I feel the 62.5 over at $2 is a bloody good bet in this one.

Sydney vs North Melbourne
SGM Isacc Heeny 3+ goals/Lance Franklin 4+ goals @ $5.78

Everyone knows that $1.08 Swans are going to belt North Melbourne on Saturday afternoon, so let’s keep this game interesting with a Same Game Multi.

Both Isaac Heeney and Buddy had a quiet one in the Swans loss to the Bulldogs last Thursday night, but back on the home deck of the SCG they’ll be played back into form against the witches’ hats that are the North Melbourne Football Club right now.

I happened to see the Kangaroos live last week against the Lions, and there’s nothing that can convince me they’ll put up any fight taking on a Swans outfit on the rebound.

This should be a high-scoring, one-way affair in favour of the Sydney Swans and expect plenty of goals with the Heeney/Buddy show in full swing.

Heeny 3+, Buddy 4+ in a same game multi – Happy Days.

COLLINGWOOD VS WEST COAST
Jack Ginnivan (Collingwood) 2+ Goals @ $2.20

Sometimes you punt on form, gut feel or a quirky stat really gets to you.

However, sometimes you punt on spite.

This tip is just that.

Kane Cornes has been nothing but a bully on Collingwood’s Jack Ginnivan, living rent-free in the failed Fireman’s turned shock-jocks head all this season be it use of the GoPro or taking on Joel Selwood.

Ginnivan, who has played just under 10 games, averages 1.3 goals per game three matches into season 2022 and has plenty of personality and love of just playing footy.

Cornes is just a miserable grump looking to squeeze the jam out of the donut whenever he gets the chance.

I’m backing Jack Ginnivan to kick a couple of sausage rolls at the MCG on Saturday for $2.20 on offer, and I look forward to his GoPro work in the future.

RICHMOND VS WESTERN BULLDOGS
Total Points -Under 170.5 @ $1.88

The Tigers ain’t what they used to be and Saturday nights clash against the Western Bulldogs at the MCG is a big one in terms of Richmond’s 2022 season.

It’s the same for the 1-2 Western Bulldogs, who registered their first win for the year against the Swans last week.

Richmond is 3 wins – 1 draw and 9 losses in their last 13 games, they didn’t play finals last year and giving up 2nd half lead to be run off their feet has become an emerging trend.

While there are some significant players out in this one, it’s hard to work out just what Tigers or Dogs side will turn up for this match.

Each of Richmond’s last five matches have gone OVER the total match points line, but with pressure on both sides expect the coaching staff to put a halt to the fast pace attacking footy the majority of people love.

Expect a defensive hit out and the Under 170.5 points looks a good bet.

FREMANTLE VS GWS GIANTS
Fremantle to win by more than 15.5 points @ $2.85

At the time of publishing, both Fremantle and GWS were $1.90 in our head to head markets.

To call this a bloody hard game to tip is an understatement.

The Dockers are fresh from thrashing the Eagles in the Derby and get to stay in Perth for another week.

GWS did what they needed to do against the Suns last week registering a 26-point victory – the Giants first for season 2022.

What’s worth noting is that the game is at Optus Stadium, a venue that has not been kind to the GWS Giants having lost six of their past seven at the ground.

Freo at home alone makes them at least three goals better, and the Freo 15.5+ tribet offer is great value in an even money contest.

ESSENDON VS ADELAIDE
Essendon (-14.5) @ $1.90

Another year of Bombers pre-season hype only to start the season owen-3 is upon us.

Essendon was once called the “Same Olds” and this is truly the “Same Olds” Dons of the 21st century.

Surely the Bombers finally chalk up their first win for season 2022 against the Crows on Sunday?

Essendon has won each of its last four matches against Adelaide.

While this young Crows side will be up and about after beating the Power with a Jordan Dawson kick after siren to win the Showdown, do you really think they can back it up with a win on the road against Essendon?

I’m willing to give the Bombers a go here and I’ll take them at the line.

HAWTHORN VS ST KILDA
Either team to win by less than 15.5 points @ $2.55

There’s a lot to like about both the Hawks and Saints so far in season 2022 and Sunday’s clash at the MCG should be a beauty!

Despite their first loss for the season against the Blues last week, Hawthorn fans can hold their heads up high and have lost no admirers.

St Kilda went BANG in the last quarter against the Tiges last week, with big Maxy King kicking four in a dominating display as the momentum shifted completely to the Saints.

Don’t rule out Max King winning another game for the Saints here on Sunday, but expect the Hawks to be right in it.

I’m hoping for a thriller and the either by 15.5 or less option (one of my all-time favourite markets) is a good play in this one.

GOLD COAST SUNS VS CARLTON
Carlton 1-39 points @ $2.10

The lid is off at Carlton.

There’s no lid to be seen at Princes Park/Lygon Street.

The glory days are back.

Vossy is taking the Bluebaggers to the promised land.

However, they shouldn’t expect to phone it in against the Suns on Sunday.

Expect the Gold Coast to stay in touch for as long as they can, in a similar fashion to when they played the Dees a fortnight ago.

The Blues should win this and start 4-0.

We finally know they are coming.