AFL Round 3 Tips & Preview

Six teams are undefeated, six teams are yet to register a win, the lid is off at Carlton and we have a HUGE weekend which includes the Showdown and Western Derby.

It might only be Round 3 of the 2022 AFL season, but things are already starting to heat up.

Can we turn it into a winning one for Neds Punters?

Read on in our AFL Round 3 Tips and Preview 

WESTERN BULLDOGS VS SYDNEY
SGM Sydney Swans (+1.5)/Isaac Heeney 3+ Goals @ $6.10

It’s a must-win game for the Western Bulldogs this Thursday night as they play host to the Swans at Marvel Stadium.

We’re calling the meeting of the 2016 Grand Finalists the Owen Derby.

The Dogs Owen-Two vs the Oh’s, Sydney Two ‘n Oh.

Things are getting desperate for the Dogs.

Losses to Melbourne and Carlton to start the season off isn’t ideal, and you’d think Bevo’s mates in the media will really ramp up the heat on them if they end up Owen-three.

Buddy’s 1000th aside, the Swans are enjoying a terrific start to the season.

Solid wins over the Giants and Cats and many expect the Sydney Swans to be yet again be in the mix this season.

While Buddy’s milestone was amazing, the form of Isaac Heeney up forward has been electric.

Heeney has kicked 3+ goals in each of the Swans’ last four matches.

I’ve gone with a Same Game Multi: backed the Swans at the line and Heeney for 3+ goals on Thursday night for a solid $6.10 collect, wouldn’t that be a cracking way to kick off Round 3!

MELBOURNE VS ESSENDON
Melbourne 40+ / Over 169.5 @$4.49

There was much attention when Mick Malthouse picked the Bombers to win this year’s premiership, but the Dons are 0-2 and have put in some Barry Crockers in the first two rounds of the season.

Can we write them off for a tilt at the flag (let alone winning a final) this season?

Of course, we can.

Come September, Essendon’s finals drought will turn 18 and be old enough to open an account with Neds.

As for the game itself, Melbourne is flying.

The reigning premiers just keep on keeping on, Christian Petracca, Clayton Oliver and co are playing the best footy of their lives.

However, there’s one stat that caught my eye more than anything else when trying to find a tip for this match:

Essendon has lost 16 of its last 17 matches against reigning premiers.

The Dees will run rampant and there’s not a thing the Bombers will do about it.

 

Adelaide vs Port Adelaide
Port Adelaide (-21.5) @ $2

Both the Crows and Power head into the first Showdown for 2022 0-2 but all the pressure will be on Port Adelaide heading into this one.

If the Power can’t beat the Crows on Friday night, stick a fork in their 2022 season and expect Ken Hinkley to get the Freo-Heave-Ho from Kochie within days..

They simply have to win this game.

The 21 point head start the bookies have given Port Adelaide is generous and if they can’t cover that then they really are done.

Port has had the wood over their fierce rivals recently and have won the past four Showdowns.

That will continue on Friday night.

GWS GIANTS VS GOLD COAST SUNS
Gold Coast Suns +9.5 @ $1.90

GWS is another team that is under the pump this weekend having lost both their games so far this season with the latest the most disappointing.

They were never in the game against a Richmond team that was missing the likes of Dustin Martin and Jack Reiwoldt eventually going down by six goals.

The Gold Coast Suns were excellent when beating the Eagles in Perth to kick start their year and despite losing to the reigning premiers last week, their performance was full of merit.

They could have easily folded toward the back end of that game against the Dees but they fought right to the end to only go down by 13 points.

The Suns had more inside 50s (+5), stoppage clearances (+1) and marks inside 50 (+4) than their opponents and Touk Miller continued his outstanding form with 38 disposals.

I simply have to be with the more in form team at this stage in the season especially considering we are being given a head start.

 

COLLINGWOOD VS GEELONG
SGM Cats 1-39 + Isaac Smith 20+ + Hoskin Elliot AT Goal @ $6.75

It was a tough gig last week when Geelong went north to take on Sydney on what was such a momentous occasion for their star forward Lance Franklin.

The home ground advantage was amplified on what was an incredible night at the SCG and the five goal margin may have flattered the Swans.

Geelong has more scoring shots (+5), inside 50s (+18) and clearances (+3) but squandered many opportunities throughout the evening going at just 69.2% efficiency around the ground and 43.1% inside their forward 50.

Collingwood sit second on the AFL ladder through two rounds after solid wins against St Kilda and Adelaide giving new coach Craig McCrae an unbeaten start to his tenure at the Pies.

They led from start to finish to run out 42 point winners at the MCG against the Crows with Josh Daicos continuing to impress with25 touches and six tackles.

Isaac Smith has recorded 20+ disposals in his last 12 straight games against Collingwood and Will Hoskin-Elliott has kicked 1+ goals in eight of his last nine games against Geelong.

 

BRISBANE LIONS VS NORTH MELBOURNE
Brisbane Lions 1-39 @ $2.45

It took until round nine for North to get their first win in season 2021 but they secured the four points against West Coast last weekend albeit against a depleted Eagles squad.

Nick Larkey booted six and Jack Ziebell led the way with 29 touches (24 of them kicks) and 14 marks.

The Brisbane Lions went 2-0 after wins against Port Adelaide and then Essendon and will be looking to continue that winning form against a rebuilding side in North.

The Kangaroos have lost their last nine straight games in Queensland and the Lions have won their last four straight games against North Melbourne by a margin of 1-39 points.

That’s good enough for me.

CARLTON VS HAWTHORN
Carlton 1-39 @ $2.20

I wouldn’t have thought this before the season started but this may just be the match of the round on Sunday afternoon at the MCG.

Both clubs have new coaches and both remain undefeated in season 2022.

Carlton’s opponents, on paper at least, have been more impressive.

They first broke a 10 year draught against rivals Richmond in round one before dismantled last year’s grand finalists the Western Bulldogs in round two.

The Hawks have seemingly been rejuvenated but the truth is that they finally have an almost injury free list to chose from.

They had just one of the top seven possession winners on the ground against Port Adelaide losing the disposal count by a huge 74 and had 12 less inside 50s yet they won the game of football by 64 points.

Despite having the clear advantage in the ruck (53-29 hit outs) they lost the clearances (-24) and stoppage clearances (-14) but they cut Port up through the middle of the ground and kept possession of the football.

There is a huge amount of hype around the Blue Baggers but for me, it is a matter of time before they stumble.

I don’t think it will be this weekend though.

ST KILDA VS RICHMOND
Jade Gresham to have 80+ Fantasy Points @ $1.68

The Saints backed up a pretty ordinary effort in round one against Collingwood with a tough and gutsy performance to get over Freo last Sunday afternoon.

Both games are tough to judge at this stage in the season if I’m being honest.

It is hard to sum up just where both Collingwood and Fremantle will finish the year but it’s safe to safe that all three of the aforementioned teams will be vying for one of those spots from 5-8.

Richmond is another that may be scrapping for a finals spot come late August but they were ultra impressive when beating the Giants last weekend without stars Dustin Martin, Dion Prestia and Jack Reiwoldt.

The market is struggling to split these two teams and so am I!

Jade Gresham has had 24 & 25 disposals through two rounds and is fine form so let’s stick with him to continue his good run.

 

West Coast vs Fremantle
No Bet

As of time of publish (Wednesday) we are not sure how these two teams are going to line up and I would not be confident tipping in this game until later in the week.