The 2021 State of Origin series will draw to a close when New South Wales take on Queensland in Game 3 on the Gold Coast tomorrow night.
The Blues have been nothing short of outstanding in 2021, and they are offered the opportunity at pulling off something that has never been done and realistically, something that will never happen again – win all three games in a State of Origin series in enemy territory.
The current series score line sits at 76-6, but injury has forced Blues coach Brad Fittler to make several key changes to his side, and with an untested halves combination steering the ship, nothing is certain.
Queensland are playing for pride and get a third chance to deliver a home crowd something to cheer about.
They are currently rated $3.70 outsiders here at Neds, with $2 lines set at 12 points.
You can find a brief preview of both teams and my complete 2021 State of Origin Game 3 Tips below.
|
New South Wales |
Position | Queensland |
|
James Tedesco (C) |
Fullback | Kalyn Ponga |
|
Brian To’o |
Winger |
Valentine Holmes |
|
Latrell Mitchell |
Centre |
Dane Gagai |
|
Tom Trbojevic |
Centre |
Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow |
|
Josh Addo-Carr |
Winger |
Xavier Coates |
|
Jack Wighton |
Five-Eighth |
Cameron Munster |
|
Mitchell Moses |
Halfback | Daly Cherry-Evans |
|
Junior Paulo |
Prop | Christian Welch |
| Damien Cook | Hooker |
Ben Hunt |
|
Dale Finucane |
Prop |
Josh Papalii |
|
Cameron Murray |
Second Row |
Kurt Capewell |
|
Tariq Sims |
Second Row |
Felise Kafusi |
|
Isaah Yeo |
Lock |
Francis Molo |
|
Apisai Koroisau |
Interchange |
Alexander Brimson |
|
Angus Chrichton |
Interchange |
Tino Fa’asuamaleaui |
|
Payne Haas |
Interchange |
Moeaki Fotuaika |
|
Liam Martin |
Interchange |
Thomas Flegler |
|
Nicho Hynes |
Reserve |
Kurt Mann |
|
Clinton Gutherson |
Reserve |
|
| Stefano Utoikamanu | Reserve | |
|
Brad Fittler |
Coach |
Paul Green |
New South Wales
It was supposed to be in Sydney, then Newcastle and now, the New South Wales Blues have been set the task of playing yet another State of Origin game in Queensland.
In seasons gone by, it would have been a genuine handicap to be playing against Queensland in Queensland, but with what has so-far transpired in 2021, they deserve their clear favouritism, even with plenty of new faces in the fold.
The big change is in the halves, with Jack Wighton being promoted from the bench and Mitchell Moses confirmed to make his debut. The 14 role will now be occupied by debutant Api Koroisau, who has been rewarded for his impressive form with the Panthers, and who has been 18th man for the Blues in Games 1 & 2.
Queensland
They’ve hardly fired a shot in 2021, and coach Paul Green has once again had his work cut out for him in finding a team that can (hopefully) withhold the Blues a little, and compete for a full eighty minutes.
The available of Kalyn Ponga is enormous, and that means that Valentine Holmes has been pushed back to the wing, which is quite clearly his stronger position.
Young jet Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow will make his debut in the centres, while the banning of Jai Arrow for disciplinary reasons means that 18th man Francis Molo comes back into the side for his second Origin cap.
Given their two performances so far in 2021, Queensland have opened clear outsiders and would need to improve tenfold to win, but they do have some upside with a player of Ponga’s calibre returning, and there is certainly consideration to be had at a 12-point line.
State of Origin First Try Scorer
It has proven to be a lucrative market yet again and there’s big value to be find in State of Origin First Try Scorer betting ahead of Game 3.
Tommy Turbo crossed in Game 1 at odds of $13, while Josh Addo-Carr scored for the first in Game 2 at $7.50.
I’m confident that the Blues will go over first again and I can’t pull myself away from Tom Trbojevic again ($9.50), though I also understand that Origin is very much a patriotic punter’s paradise, in which case I believe that Val Holmes represents the best value for Queensland ($12.40)
Tips:
Back Tom Trbojevic to score the first try @ $9
Back Valentine Holmes to score the first try @ $12.50
State of Origin Same Game Multi
As it has been all series, Same Game Multi is available on State of Origin Game 3, and you can pump up your odds by combining selections form some of your favourite markets.
I’m going to load up with Queensland covering the line along with Tom Trbojevic and Val Holmes crossing for tries at any time in Game 3.
SGM: Maroons (+12)/Tom Trbojevic Anytime Try/Val Holmes Anytime Try @ $7.60