AFL Round 16 Tips & Preview

AFL Round 16 Tips & Preview

Amongst all the chaos around the country, footy comes home to the land of the free and the heartland of Victoria this weekend.

You’ll see games being played in strange, weird and wonderful (yet familiar) locations as the AFL somehow finds a way to keep on keeping on.

There’s plenty of good footy ahead of us and nine chances to turn Round 16 into a profitable one.

Can we bring it home?

Read on in the preview.

PLEASE NOTE: We are waiting for confirmation of times and venues for the Crows v Lions and Freo v Blues games. 

GOLD COAST SUNS VS RICHMOND
Richmond by 60+ @ $3.60

The Suns will now “host” Richmond at the Tigers’ favourite venue – Marvel Stadium this Thursday night.

To be honest, given that Metricon became Richmond’s default home ground last year and there was the chance for some July sunshine, most of the Tiger Army would prefer if this game was on the Gold Coast in a perfect world.

It’s far from a perfect world and good old COVID lockdowns have resulted in this clash being moved to Marvel.

Everyone has been writing the obituary for the Tiger dynasty this week, especially after that insipid performance against the Saints in which only two goals were kicked resulting in the clubs lowest final score since 1961.

Playing the lowly Gold Coast Suns at this time of the year, on a quick turnaround along with having fled Queensland on short notice very much falls in the Tigers favour.

The market has them as short-priced favourites, and even with the injuries (Noah Balta for example) Richmond should be set to regain some confidence and boost their percentage.

Despite hating playing at Marvel, the Tigers have won both matches at the ground this season and with the backs against the wall and soul searching this week, expect them to get some of their mojo back.

I’m tipping Richmond to give the Suns a 10 goal + belting to kick the round off.

It won’t get people talking about them winning the flag, but it will give their season a much-needed percentage boost.

best bet
Geelong vs Essendon
Essendon (+25.5) @ $2

For the first time since Round 21, 1993 Essendon heads down to old Sleepy Hollow to take on the Cats.

Geelong got their pants pulled down by the mighty Brisbane Lions (proudly sponsored by Neds) last Thursday night so they’ll be glad to be back home.

Friday night looms as a serious challenge for Essendon and a must-win game.

There’s no doubt that Essendon has improved this year and the future is bright for Ben Rutten’s Baby Bombers.

However, the Dons are in a position where they’ll need to win most of their remaining games and have a few external results fall in their favor if they have any chance to play finals in 2021.

Having said that, the Bombers are not only good to watch but have proven to be a great side for punters, especially those of us who like the line.

Essendon has covered the line in four out of their last five games and with it being set at -25.5, the Bombers are every chance to cover it.

Geelong knows how to win, but the Cats’ past five wins have been in the 1-39 point range and it’s expected to be a wet night.

I like Essendon at the line that much, I’ve even pulled the trigger on the best bet option.

With the $2 line betting on offer for this game, it’s worth a crack.

MELBOURNE VS GWS GIANTS
Melbourne to win by 1-39 @ $2.10

The top-of-the-ladder Dees are back at home hosting the Giants on a Saturday arvo.

This match is pretty straightforward, Melbourne should be able to cement their position at the summit of the AFL mountain against a Giants outfit who have time and time again proven to be rather disappointing.

GWS blew a chance to get back into the top eight last week against Hawthorn.

They looked on track early on in the match, only to allow the 17th placed Hawks to run over them in a match for which they were clear favorites.

Melbourne, on the other hand, knows how to win good, bad, and ugly – as all good football teams do.

The Dees did it easy when these two sides met in Canberra earlier this season, and they should be able to get the job done over a Giants side who have blown their chances.

The 1-39 margin seems about right.

 

Adelaide vs Brisbane Lions
Brisbane Lions 1-39 pts

No matter if this game gets played at Adelaide Oval, Geelong, Ballarat or Timbucktoo, we’re going to back the Brisbane Lions (proudly sponsored by Neds) to get the job done over the Crows.

Adelaide has been without a doubt one of the most entertaining teams to watch all season, having a crack week in week out.

They’ve done everything that’s expected of a young team that’s in a rebuilding phase, but they will be no match for our boys.

Brisbane is red hot right now.

The Lions have won nine out of their last 10 and did it easy over the Cats at the Gabba last week.

Things are coming up Milhouse for Fages and the boys and while we should expect Adelaide to be competitive, the Lions just know how to win.

Take the 1-39 points for a bit of value.

HAWTHORN VS PORT ADELAIDE
Shaun Burgoyne (Hawthorn) Anytime Goal Scorer @ $2.40

A shout out to the man they call “Silk”

Shaun Burgoyne will play his 400th game this Saturday night at Marvel Stadium and it is somewhat fitting and somewhat ironic that it will be played against his old side Port Adelaide.

Burgoyne has been a Hawk since 2010 and this is his 20th season in the AFL.

Only four other men have reached the 400 game milestone – Boomer Harvey, Micheal Tuck, Kevin Bartlett, Dustin Fletcher, and now Shaun Burgoyne – the first indigenous player to do so.

Many will remember that Silk arrived at Hawthorn under an injury cloud, but he’s turned into a legend of the club and the game.

Hawthorn has done everything they can to ensure he gets to 400, as he was the medi-sub replacing Chad Wingard in the last quarter in the Hawks win over the Giants last week.

This game is a must-win for Port Adelaide if they want to cement themselves in the top four, the Power go in as $1.33 favorites, but we’re dedicating this bet to Silk and have him down to kick a goal in his 400th game.

It’ll bring the house down, no matter what the outcome is.

 

Fremantle v Carlton
Fremantle to win by 1-39 @ $2.30

Freo will now host Carlton at the MCG, in what will be a doubleheader at the home of football this Saturday.

Some may question why it’s at the ‘G, allegedly giving Carlton somewhat of a home ground advantage, however, the ground has similar dimensions to Optus Stadium, rather than the narrow flanks of Geelong.

There’s a method to this madness here.

Freo needs to win this to stay in touch with the eight, currently sitting ninth with a poor percentage, the Dockers can’t muck around here.

Carlton will be delighted they don’t get a trip to Perth and got the job done over the Crows to keep the knockers at bay for at least a week.

Nat Fyfe is a chance to get back into the team this week, and Freo can play good footy when they want to.

This is a time for Freo to be playing good footy.

I have some belief the Dockers will make the most of their chances to get within striking distance of the top eight and a rare run around the MCG.

We all know the golden rule in footy tipping is to always back the WA side at home anyway.

Sydney vs West Coast
Sydney Swans to win by 1-24 @ $3.35

We’ve seen footy being played in strange and exotic locations over the past two seasons, and Sydney hosting West Coast at Geelong is right up there.

This will actually be the first game for premiership points that Kardinia Park/Shell Stadium/Baytec Stadium/Skilled Stadium/Simonds Stadium/GMHBA Stadium has hosted that doesn’t involve the Cats.

And, if you’re up for more novelty/meaningless stats, it’s also the first time the Swans have played a home game in Victoria since Round 22, 1981 when South Melbourne bid farewell to the Lake Oval going down to the Kangas by 33 points.

With the game being played on neutral territory, it’s a bloody hard one to tip.

Sydney has lost their past two matches and the Eagles were awful at home against the Dogs last week.

The Swans have actually won some games down at Geelong recently, whereas West Coast hasn’t won there since 2006, but do these stats even matter?

I think this game will be close, but somehow the Swans should come out on top here.

I’ll take the 1-24 points margin on offer for a bit of value.

COLLINGWOOD VS ST KILDA
Either team to win by less than 15.5 points @ $2.40

Safe to say, no one saw the Saints beating Richmond by 40 points last week.

Somehow they are the $2.10 underdogs against Robert Harvey’s Magpies ($1.70)

Watching how St Kilda immortal Robert Harvey coaches against this club certainly gives a bit of spice to this game.

If the Saints can back this up against the Pies, they will somehow be in the conversation to be a chance for the top eight or at least some of their fans will be spending more time on the AFL ladder predictor.

That being said, St Kilda can also put in a shocker and has done so on many occasions this season.

Collingwood has been in some close contests in recent weeks, and many punters appear to have faith in the Pies getting one back after going down to Freo by 12 points last week.

This game is proving a hard one to tip, and it very much depends on what Magpie/Saints outfit turns up.

I expect it to be close so I’m going with my classic either by 15.5 point bet, which I’m famous for.

WESTERN BULLDOGS VS NORTH MELBOURNE
Western Bulldogs (-50.5) @ $1.90

There was a part of me that was tempted to take the Kangaroos at the line for this game, but I think it might get ugly.

The Western Bulldogs are coming off a big win on the road against West Coast and you might recall they did belt North by 128 points with Josh Bruce kicking 10 goals back on Good Friday.

As $1.04 favourites to win this game, there’s absolutely no chance of an upset.

North has been going alright playing in Tassie in recent weeks, but facing the Western Bulldogs at Marvel Stadium is a whole other thing.

Don’t be tempted by the long line on offer and back North, these Dogs mean business and you should be able to bank on this one.