With State of Origin right around the corner, now is the perfect time to reflect back on another massive week of rugby league.
Round 12 resulted in a couple of late upsets with the Sharks defeating the Titans and the Knights knocking off Manly, and not surprisingly, the book came out well on top.
It was also a very profitable week for those that backed some First Try Scorers at long odds, while we’ve also seen some serious action in our NRL Premiership market.
To keep you up to date with the weekend’s winners and market movers, be sure to read our Round 12 edition of The Offload!
Performance of the Week
Valentine Holmes had ice in his veins on Friday night as the Cowboys’ star fullback vaulted his side back into the eight with a kick right before the siren against the Warriors.
The Cowboys drifted from $1.94 all the way out to $2.35 before kickoff, which turned into an absolute steal for punters that were willing to take on a hot and cold Warriors side that often struggles to win back-to-back games.
Kyle Feldt helped a few multis over the line as a $1.80 Anytime Try Scorer, while Scott Drinkwater ($3.60) and Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow ($2.40) were both enormous value to find the line.
The Cowboys 1-12 was paying a handy $3.80, but if you missed out on a score, there’s still plenty of time to load up on North Queensland.
Todd Payten’s men remain $2.40 to finish inside the Top 8 with some tough games against Manly, Newcastle and South Sydney coming up after the bye.
Don’t Argue…
With AJ.
He’s been a little quiet in recent weeks, but Alex Johnston burst back onto the scene on Saturday with a monster hat-trick against the Eels paying $10.
The first came off a lovely little basketball pass from Latrell Mitchell to set up AJ in the corner, a sign of things to come as the Bunnies stretched the Eels out wide all night to secure an impressive 38-20 win.
That performance has left Johno sitting only three tries behind Josh Addo-Carr atop the leaderboard, so now might be the perfect time to start sussing out the Top Try Scorer market.
Don’t Forget About…
Joseph Manu.
Desperate to bounce back from a stunning loss to the Broncos, the injury-riddled Roosters really needed somebody to step up against the Raiders at home on Saturday night.
The 24-year-old was happy to carry the load as he transitioned into the halves, and it didn’t take long for his talent to shine in the form of a second half double paying a cool $8.00.
With the Roosters facing the Titans, Panthers and Storm in the lead up to the bye, Manu’s emergence couldn’t have come at a better time.
If You’re Not First, You’re Last
It was a big week for the book as far as First Try Scorer results were concerned.
Brandon Smith lobbed at $19.00 on Friday night with some impressive dance moves against the Broncos…
Followed by this bursting run from Euan Aitken ($14) against the Cowboys.
Damien Cook looked to be the highest price winner of the round when he sold some candy to find the line a minute in…
But Josh Hodgson had other ideas, saluting at a whopping $34 thanks to a very fortuitous bounce against the Roosters.
Futures Forecast
One game really can make a difference.
Manly’s shock loss to Newcastle on Sunday has left the Sea Eagles on the drift in our Premiership market, fading all the way from $11 out to $17.00 heading into the bye.
On the flip side, the Knights have trimmed from $101 into $67, which is a little surprising considering they’ve only won two of their last five games.
In less meaningful news, the Sharks remain triple digits, but they have seen their price slashed from $201 into $101, while the Roosters are also back into $9.00 after thrashing the Raiders.
Don’t Tell the Misso
One punter learned the hard way on Sunday that there is no such thing as a moral.
Manly looked in for the fight in the first half against the Knights before Newcastle’s defence stepped up, much to the chagrin of our Neds nuffie who laid a $50k bet on the Sea Eagles @ $1.20 heading into kickoff.
Bloody Good Bets
Backing the heavy favourites at the line has been very profitable this year, and that was again the case on Friday night when one punter put down $30k on the Storm to cover -21.5.
The game between the Tigers and Dragons was a tough one to pick, but considering Wests had won three straight over the Saints heading in, one Neds customer was happy to lay $40k on the orange and black outright.
Of course, none of that compares to one ballsy punter who threw down $10k on the Sharks to beat the Titans.
Cronulla got all the way out to $2.30 before kickoff, a huge result in what was a fairly easy watch.
Mad Multis
The Tigers and Sharks winning probably upset a few multis this week, but one random Souths guy did manage to jag this beauty for a cool five-figure payout.
