AFL Round 9 Tips & Preview

AFL Round 9 Tips & Preview

Well, Melbourne remain undefeated and North are yet to win a game.

Carlton and Essendon are as inconsistent as ever, Nathan Buckley is under the pump and Richmond players find themselves in another off-field scandal.

And the Mighty Brisbane Lions (proudly sponsored by Neds) are on the march up the AFL ladder.

And the fun doesn’t stop there. We have a fantastic weekend of football in front of us with plenty of opportunities to make some cash.

Our full 2021 AFL Round 9 Tips & Preview can be viewed below.

ST KILDA SAINTS V GEELONG CATS
Cats 60+ at $8.25

The Cats made their biggest mark on the competition so far this season with the thumping of the defending premier in the Grand Final replay.

Was Geelong that good or were Richmond just incredibly bad?

Was the Cat’s pressure the difference or did Richmond just make a hell of a lot of unforced errors?

The answer is probably somewhere in the middle but the fact is that Geelong are now 5/3 and inside the top four.

Things have not all gone to plan for Brett Ratten and his Saint’s so far this season but they did find a way to beat the Gold Coast on the weekend which was a truly must-win game.

St Kilda has looked hapless at stages during games this year. They have simply had no answer and struggled to stop teams from going on massive scoring streaks.

Their last three losses have been by 54, 86 and 75 points and they have the third worst percentage of any team in the competition behind Hawthorn and North Melbourne.

This is a really good test for both teams to be honest.

Priority number one for Brett Ratten and St Kilda will be to not allow themselves to be bullied for periods of this game on the scoreboard and to simply apply pressure and intent for four quarters.

I’m just not sure they are able with the personnel available.

SYDNEY SWANS V COLLINGWOOD MAGPIES
SGM Callum Mills 100+ Fantasy Points/Over 169.5 Total Points @ $2.73

Everyone else is weighing in on Nathan Buckley and Collingwood so I’ll have a crack as well.

We simply got them wrong!

We always expect so much from the Pies but the fact of the matter is that their list lacks a whole lot of depth.

In fact it’s about as shallow as a an ex-president resorting to name calling and bullying tactics over the wearing of a jersey.

This has been exposed greatly by the injury to their most important player in my opinion in Jeremy Howe who sets them up so well with his intercept marking and rebound out of defensive 50.

And after an excruciating period of trying to watch Buckley reinvent Darcey Moore into a forward he finally put his hand up and sent him back and watched him rack up 28 touches, 19 marks (11 intercepted), 3 inside 50s and 4 score involvements.

Who would have thought your All Australian CHB would be better suited to the team in defence?!

Despite falling to sixth, the Swans have been the surprise packet so far in season 2021.

They were brave against the undefeated Dees on Saturday night at the MCG, a ground where they are better suited than the SCG in my opinion.

The Pies remain a tough team to score against despite increasing their scoring capacity this season and I see this being a low scoring affair.

HAWTHORN HAWKS V NORTH MELBOURNE ROOS
SGM Breust 2+ Goals / Worpel 90+ Fantasy Points @ $3.05

Look, North Melbourne haven’t been that bad lately have they?

It’s funny how the majority of footballing pundits and public are so understanding and almost sympathetic with teams that are yet to win a game.

Especially when compared to someone like Collingwood who sit only two spots above North on the AFL ladder.

This contest is Tassie on Saturday afternoon is not going to be the most watched game of the season but there is plenty to play for for both clubs.

I’m finding it difficult to find a winner but I’ve found a nice betting play for the game.

Gold Coast Suns v Brisbane Lions
SGM Lions Win/Charlie Cameron 2+ Goals/Daniher 80+ Fantasy Points @ $3.53

It wasn’t the best of starts for the Brisbane Lions, especially with the robbery in Geelong, but we are back on track in season 2021 with four wins on the trot by 57, 18, 49 and 24 points.

The Gold Coast Suns have found a bit of form as well putting together two impressive wins against the Swans and then Pies before narrowly going down to the Saints last Saturday by nine points.

Joe Daniher and Charlie Cameron are working really well in tandem up forward which has been a huge part of the Lions turn in form.

Jarryd Lyons is another who has been in excellent form. He is 6th in the competition for contested possessions and has made a huge 40 tackles so far in season 2021.

Tackling and contested footy.

Something the Lions need to pride themselves on to succeed this year.

Richmond Tigers v GWS Giants
Richmond -11.5 @ $1.90

Richmond have had a lot of success in recent years because they are such a good TEAM.

And that means if one bloke gets in a bar fight, they all join in.

It certainly isn’t panic stations at Punt Road after their bad loss to the Cats last Friday night but there were some troubling signs of uncharacteristic errors throughout the second half for the men in yellow and black.

Their injury list has been overstated. Yes there are a few key players missing but this should not be used as an excuse.

They should get Dylan Grimes back into the side this week in a very important game against a GWS side that has shown some resilience after a slow start to the season.

Wins over Adelaide and Essendon in their past two weeks has them just before Richmond on the ladder with the same win/loss record of 4/4.

Port Adelaide Power v Western Bulldogs
Total Points Over 155,5 @ $1.88

This is the match of the round as the second placed Western Bulldogs take on the third placed Port Adelaide at Adelaide Oval on Saturday night.

The Power dominated the Showdown from start to finish last week to beat their rivals by 49 points and the best thing about the win was just how many contributors they had.

The Dogs were challenged by Carlton last Sunday but responded well to mow over the top of them in the second half.

Both of these teams are free scoring sides and the Dogs have scored more points than any team in the competition this year.

The total points line of 155.5 seems low in my opinion and is the best betting play of the game.

 

Essendon Bombers v Fremantle Dockers
Essendon by 25+ @ $3.00

Essendon has been consistently inconsistent again this season with plenty to like and, for frustrated Bombers supporters, plenty to dislike as well.

The highs have been a 75 win over St Kilda and a four goal win on Anzac Day but close defeats to Carlton and GWS in the past two weeks have been disappointing.

They have no trouble scoring.

In fact, only one team (Western Bulldogs) has scored more points them throughout the year but the scoring also comes freely back the other way with only North conceding more points through eight rounds.

Despite back to back losses against West Coast and Brisbane, Freo have surprised many so far this year and sit just outside the eight with a record of 4/4.

Andrew Brayshaw, Connor Blakely and David Mundy have been extremely important in their rise up the ladder.

After a couple of close losses this is a very important game for the Dons who are much further along the rebuild faze than Freo.

They should get the job done at Marvel Stadium.

 

Melbourne Demons v Carlton Blues
Carlton +22.5 @ $1.90

When will it all come crashing down for Melbourne?

That is what we have all been asking. Let’s be honest here.

But the Red and the Blue continue to play exceptional football and step up to all challenges.

The Swans had a real, red and white, hot crack at them last weekend and the Dees responded with possibly their best win of the season.

The AFL season stats tell the story.

Christian Petracca (#1 in Inside 50s), Jake Lever (#2 Intercept Marks), Max Gawn (#1 Contested Marks & #2 Hitouts to Advantage) and Clayton Oliver (#4 Total Clearances).

Add into the mix Christian Salem and Bayley Fritsch who are having career best years and there is no wonder the Dees are undefeated.

It has been a year of frustration for Carlton fans. Something that they are not new to.

Just like Essendon, they have no problem scoring. They sit 7th in total points scored.

But they also bleed points the other way with only North and Essendon conceding more points.

Melbourne are a tough unit to beat right now but the line does seem a little big for mine.

West Coast Eagles v Adelaide Crows
Eagles -50.5 @ $2.50

The Crows started the season on absolute fire, winning three of their first four but they have come crashing back down to earth in recent weeks.

First, the Giants got a hold of them to the tune of 67 points in front of their home crowd and then they lost the Showdown by 49 last weekend.

West Coast on the hand, are going the complete opposite direction and have found some scary form recently.

It will be a matter of by how much in my opinion.

Really keen on Oscar Allen. I think we will be talking about him for a very long time.