A BIG weekend of Football awaits us.
It’s so BIG, we’ll keep the intro short and rip straight into the tips.
While there’s been a late rejig of the fixture, and we’ll still, unfortunately, see some games played in front of no one, there’s still footy to get on with.
Can we make it a profitable one?
Read on in our AFL Round 11 tips and preview to find out.
BIG game this one.
So BIG we’ve had to write it in capital letters.
1 v 2, both 9 wins-1 loss, big stage, yada yada yada…
It’s such a shame that a game like this doesn’t get the crowd it deserves, but at least it’s getting played and even with no fans, this clash is set to be a beauty.
In all honesty, I’m finding it quite difficult to tip a winner.
The Western Bulldogs look bloody good, fresh off delivering a 111-point spanking against St Kilda last week, they are known for kicking big scores and love it at Marvel Stadium.
Melbourne suffered its first loss for the season by one point to the Crows, and while we can dwell on the free kick not awarded in the dying stages of the match, the Dees still had plenty of opportunities to seal the deal.
Our market has the Bulldogs opening as the $1.63 head-to-head favourites, with the Dees the $2.25 value underdog.
Each of the last 12 matches at Marvel Stadium has been won by the favourites, and given how well the Doggies play that ground it’s hard to back against them.
However, Melbourne, like the Bulldogs has been incredibly impressive this season and will be eager to bounce back.
There’s only one solution for tipping in this game, I’m backing it to be a thriller, the type of match a fixture like this deserves.
Therefore I’ll back either side to win by 15.5 points or less.
I might get splinters from sitting on the fence, but at least I hope to start Round 11 of the AFL $2.50 ahead.
If you think Friday night’s game is going to be a beauty, then you’re in for the complete opposite this Saturday afternoon at the MCG as 16th placed Collingwood plays host to the 3rd placed Cats.
If anything, be glad people are sparred having to attend if my prediction is anything to go by.
It’s hard to believe that these two sides, well at least the Magpies, met in a final last year when Geelong spanked the Pies by 68 points in the semi-final at the Gabba.
Geelong got the job done against the Suns at home last week, the Pies were pipped by a point against Port.
Something tells me we’re in for a slow, low-scoring kind of game.
The Magpies will be playing keepings off and Geelong will almost certainly just be happy to wait before getting on with it and banking another four premiership points.
Take the Cats at the 1-39 margin and be done with it.
The mighty Brisbane Lions (proudly sponsored by Neds) are just humming along very nicely.
A terrific 28 point win over the Tigers, making it six wins on the trot, with four goals apiece from both Eric Hipwood and Zac Bailey, while Hugh McCluggage suffered a case of leather poisoning with 28 disposals and are now sitting very comfortably in the top four.
There’s also a bit of strut back in the side and the confidence is shown by the likes of Rhys Mathieson last week and it was truly a glorious sight to behold.
Lions fans have plenty of reasons to be up and about and they should be more than confident heading into Saturday arvo’s game against the Giants at the Gabba.
The undermanned Giants had a terrific win over the Eagles at home last week, but it would truly take something to upset the up and about Lions right now.
I’ve gone with a Same Game Multi in this clash.
Expect the Lions to get it done, so we’ll lock in the 1-39 point margin in the first leg.
Eric Hipwood is very much looking the part up forward, he’ll at least get 2+ this week, as will Charlie Cameron.
The total price of $5.42 makes for a very nice SGM as the Lions just keep on keeping on.
The Saints suffered yet another belting last weekend – this time to the tune of 111 points by the Western Bulldogs and have had the media blow torch on them all week.
You’d think they’d thank the lucky stars they’ve drawn to play last placed North, whose one-game winning streak ended at the hands of Essendon.
Usually, a game like this would have me seriously considering the NO BET option, however, the individual player markets have helped me find a little value in this game with a Same Game Multi.
If St Kilda is to bounce back, you’d expect big Max King to get the job done up forward so an effort of 3+ goals is required – pencil that in as the first leg.
Should North have a crack, they’ll need their skipper Jack Ziebell to do plenty of work in the midfield, averaging 27.6 disposals per game, there’s no reason he can’t crack an effort of 30+ touches.
It’s a simple play, take Max King 3+ goals and Ziebell 30+ disposals for a total of $3.81.
This I can get around.
When you’re doing footy tipping, sometimes it’s best to keep things simple.
West Coast playing at home: tip the Eagles.
West Coast playing away: don’t tip the Eagles (unless they are against the Hawks)
Essendon has developed a reputation as the “No Frills Bombers” and has been a bit hit and miss this season, but this is to be expected given where the Dons are at.
The Dons will take plenty of confidence from a big win, even if it was against lowly North Melbourne last week but backing it up against the Eagles in Perth is a big ask.
Again, we just need to keep this one simple.
The line has given the Eagles a four-goal head start, and they should cover it.
Originally scheduled to be played in Darwin, the Suns v Hawks clash now finds itself at the SCG this Saturday night.
The once-mighty Hawks are very much in rebuild mode, sitting 17th on the ladder with many pondering what exactly does the genius that is Clarko have installed for the future.
Gold Coast is following a familiar pattern of looking somewhat promising early in the year only to fall back into losing on a regular basis.
Based on recent form however, the Suns ($1.46) will go in as favorites over the Hawks ($2.70) and these are the games Stewy Dew’s men should be winning.
There’s really not much scope to make a case for the Hawks right now, but there’s good value in the Suns covering the line and the over in the double, so I’ll take it and hope they can live up to my expectations.
After the Tigers were looking forward to getting back to the MCG, a little Covid chaos got in the way and now they will “host” Adelaide at Giants Stadium this Sunday.
Perhaps they’ll like this alternative home ground more than Marvel, and they should still be looking forward to facing this opponent.
That’s not to say Adelaide won’t want to show they can slay the Dees one week and the Tigers the next, but I can’t see that happening.
Richmond fired early last week against the Lions, getting out to a 19-point lead in the first quarter with Jack Riewoldt kicking three only to have the game run away from them.
Still missing a chunk of their midfield, and yes, 9th on the ladder much to the amusement of non-Tigers fans, no one is writing off this team. We’ve seen this movie before.
Adelaide was brilliant in snapping a six-game losing streak with a 1 point win over the Dees and has actually been a lot of fun to watch this season, so it will be fascinating to see how they match up against a somewhat wounded Tigers.
Much has been said about Richmond on and off the field, but you should expect them to be back on the winner’s list and back in the eight come Sunday afternoon.
The 20-39 point range is an excellent value play.
Rather than the game itself, let’s focus our attention on Buddy Franklin.
Despite falling short by two points to Freo, what a delight it was to see Buddy kick six, his biggest haul since 2018.
This now leaves him just 37 short of cracking 1000 goals for his career.
Anyone who loves football wants the veteran to reach this milestone provided his body holds up, he’ll do it.
As reported in The Age, Buddy is averaging 2.875 goals per game and based on that average only needs another 13 games to hit the 1000 mark.
With 12 games left in the home and away season and a possible finals appearance, he probably won’t play them all but don’t rule out a few big Buddy bags here and there.
So let’s back in Buddy to kick a bag.
4+ seems about right.
He loves the SCG and doesn’t mind doing some of his best work against the Blues.
I’m watching this game for Buddy, nothing else.
The Power really isn’t doing it for me right now, nor should they, given I don’t barrack for them.
However, it’s hard to remain convinced they’ll be in the premiership mix like they were last year – despite being 7-3 and sitting 5th on the ladder.
They just got over the line against Collingwood by a point last week and have developed a bit of a reputation as flat-track bullies.
This game against Freo on Sunday could go either way.
Port comes out all guns blazing or Freo gives them a scare, if not an upset.
Freo sits just outside the eight and put together a stellar performance against the Swans with a vintage performance from Nat Fyfe and of course, David Mundy.
Line betting is giving the Power a 28.5 head start, but there’s better value in the tribet 1-24 market, especially if the Dockers have a crack, so I’ll take either by 24.5 or less in this one to keep it interesting.