AFL Round 5 Tips & Preview

Tip the footy they said.

You know your stuff they said.

Find some winners for the punters they said.

It’s Round 5 of the 2021 AFL season and tipping has been a deadset nightmare.

But I’m not giving up without a fight.

I’m going all-in on some upsets, big bags and a whole lot of value ahead of another epic weekend of football and perhaps the method to the madness will pay off.

Read on in our AFL Round 5 tips and preview.

ST KILDA v RICHMOND
Richmond to win by 1-24 @ $3.30

An absolutely cracking match will kick off Round 5 with the Saints hosting the Tigers under the lid at Marvel Stadium.

St Kilda will take plenty of confidence going into this match, after achieving a comeback for the ages to record a 20 point win over the Eagles last week.

The Saints were able to overcome a 33-point deficit late in the third quarter – kicking 8-6 to the Eagles 0-1 in that period of time to post one of their best wins in recent seasons.

Richmond have lost their past two matches, but no one is writing off the Tigers, they fought out an epic battle against Port only to go down by two points.

Yet again we saw more brilliance from Sir Dustin Martin in the game, to get the Tigers within a kick early in the last quarter but a few missteps and some controversial calls from the umps saw them fall short.

The Tigers ($1.42) will go into this game the clear favourite in the head to head betting with the Saints good value as the underdogs ($2.9)

These two sides last met in the Semi-Final last season, when the Tigers simply outclassed the Saints by 31 points, however, some will recall the earlier match at Marvel in 2020 when St Kilda led by Dan Butler eager to impress against his old side getting the job done by 26 points.

St Kilda does do very well at Marvel Stadium, while the Tigers are subjected to a rare trip to the other side of the Melbourne CBD and it should be a pretty close encounter.

In what will be a similar result to what was witnessed when they played in the semi-final last year, Richmond on the rebound should be too good for a spirited Saints outfit.

Tigers 1-24 points is some outstanding value.

WEST COAST v COLLINGWOOD
Collingwood (+18.5) @ $1.90

I think I’ve seen this movie before?!

The highly fancied West Coast Eagles ($1.36) take on an underdog, backs to the wall, written off, away from home Collingwood ($3.20) at Optus Stadium.

To be honest, this game will be a new episode in the series rather than a repeat of last year’s Elimination Final between the two, in which the Magpies recorded a famous 1 point upset win (which, BTW, I tipped them at the line in that game – #humblebrag.)

Both West Coast and Collingwood go into this game coming off insipid performances last week.

West Coast blew a 33-point lead late in the third quarter to allow the Saints to run over them and lost by 20 points, kicking a horrid 0-1 to St Kilda’s 8-6 in that comeback period.

The Eagles have lost two games in spectacular fashion, both at Marvel Stadium this season and their reputation as flat-track bullies is alive and well.

On the other hand, Collingwood, produced an absolute Barry Crocker of a performance against the Giants last Saturday night, copping a 30-point loss and never really standing a chance.

Footy tipping has been a nightmare and results so far in 2021 have been here, there everywhere.

Games between the West Coast Eagles and Collingwood have a long history of producing insane results, especially when teams have backs against the wall.

With the line giving the Eagles a three-goal head start, I don’t mind backing Collingwood to cover it.

The tip has been good to me before, and I’m prepared to go with it again.

Take note that this is a tip based on gut feel not form and I’m well aware it can backfire.

AFLW GRAND FINAL - ADELAIDE v BRISBANE
Brisbane Lions @ $2.40

A special shout-out to the mighty Brisbane Lions (proudly sponsored by Neds) women who make the trip to Adelaide Oval this Saturday arvo to take on the highly-fancied Adelaide Crows in the 2021 AFLW Grand Final.

This will be the Brisbane Lions third shot at the AFLW premiership after defeating Collingwood in a thrilling Preliminary Final at the Gabba last week.

The Lions girls have had an impeccable season and while Adelaide will be the red hot $1.55 favourites going into this match, one lesson from AFLW tipping and in general is to never, ever write off Brisbane.

Unfortunately for the Crows, their skipper Chelsea Randall will be missing due to the AFL’s 12-day concussion rule, after a collision in their preliminary final against the Dees.

If the Lions defence can keep Erin Phillips at bay, along with all the grit and determination this team has displayed throughout AFLW 202 these women can go from perennial bridesmaids to saying “I do” on the big day.

Get on the Lions AFLW team at $2.40 and bring the cup home to Queensland!

WESTERN BULLDOGS v GOLD COAST SUNS
Western Bulldogs to win by 40+ @ $2.10

Currently sitting on top of the AFL ladder 4-0 and the Bulldogs fans are starting to believe they could be partying like it’s October 2016 all over again.

The Bulldogs took care of Brisbane in the wet, windy conditions at Ballarat last week with a comfortable 19-point win.

Everyone seems to be ticking along nicely at the Whitten Oval, be it Tim English, new recruits Stef Martin and Adam Trealor, not to mention the Bont, Jack McRae and Josh Bruce.

While they love a visit to their Ballarat Holiday home, they’ll be delighted to be under the roof of Marvel Stadium this Saturday against the Gold Coast Suns.

Injury has the better of the Gold Coast Suns, but they put up a decent fight against Carlton last week only to fall short in the last quarter.

The Western Bulldogs will go into this game rightful favourites, and you really cannot make a case for the injury-depleted Suns to even put up a fight in this contest, as much as you’d want them to.

It’s a matter of how the Western Bulldogs will win this game, and they’ll do it very comfortably making it a 5-0 start to 2021.

The 40+ margin at $2.10 is pretty damn good value in this one.

SYDNEY v GWS GIANTS
GWS Giants (+17.5) @ $1.90

Sydney will look to start season 2021 5-0 with a win over their cross-town (or bridge) rivals the GWS Giants at the SCG this Saturday.

All puns intended, are the Swans making it to 5-0 a battle of the bridge too far?

Our market suggests otherwise – Sydney are the clear $1.36 favourites.

The Swans young guns have been a delight to watch this season so far and are a big reason why they have won four-straight.

It’s not only the cygnets that are impressive – the likes of Josh Kennedy, Luke Parker, Isaac Heeney and a man by the name of Lance “Buddy” Franklin are all still playing their parts, Sydney has the title of “bolters of 2021” written all over them.

Can their cross-town rivals the Giants deliver their first loss for the season to them?

They’ll take plenty of confidence into this game having finally broken through for a 30 point win over Collingwood – their first for the season last week.

Fill-in skipper Toby Greene booted five, Jeremy Finlayson four with the Giants playing the best football we know they can deliver.

GWS is the kind of team that can deliver an upset when least expected, some may think the young Swans bubble is due to burst.

I’m not saying the Giants will burst it completely, but I am happy to take them at the line -17.5 in a close one.

BRISBANE LIONS v ESSENDON
Brisbane Lions to win by 1-24 @ $3.15

After a longer than expected road trip down South, the mighty Brisbane Lions (proudly sponsored by Neds) return to the Gabba to take on the Bombers this Saturday.

It’s set to be a massive night at the Gabba with the prospect of Lion Joe Daniher playing against his old side, the 20-year anniversary of the first premiership of the three-peat and the one you’ve all been waiting for: The Neds Mark for Money at half-time.

Both sides are coming off a loss last week and will be eager to get the win.

Brisbane will be glad to be back in the Sunshine State after experiencing the finest weather that Ballarat has to offer.

The Bulldogs were simply too good for them in their 19 point victory, but there was still some solid performances from Lachie Neale, Hugh McCluggage and Daniel Rich.

A rare goal from Harris Andrews was also in the mix – a nice result if anyone backed him as an anytime goal kicker!

Essendon had a spirited performance against the Swans last week, only to have their hearts broken by Lance Franklin – yet again. The Bombers have played some excellent football so far this season, but have let go of some significant leads which could cost them as the year progresses.

The Lions are the clear $1.24 favourites, but I wouldn’t write off Essendon completely in this one given their ability to remain competitive in just about every game they’ve played.

With a 1-3 start to the season, the Brisbane Lions (proudly sponsored by Neds) need to get their skates on.

Like the Lions of 2001, perhaps they should take some inspiration from Leigh Matthews/Arnold Schwarzenegger when playing Essendon with the mantra “If it bleeds, we can kill it.”

Getting back to the Gabba and getting back on the winners’ list – Fages and the boys need to make the most of it.

CARLTON v PORT ADELAIDE
Port Adelaide to win by 1-39 @ $2.25

A rare trip for Port Adelaide to the MCG to face Carlton this Saturday night.

Port will want to make the most of this trip if they want to feature at the business end of the season – Kochie can whinge about VIC BIAS all he wants but if the Power want to win a premiership, having a good hitout at the home of football would do them a world of good.

Their two-point win over Richmond last week also did the Power a world of good, managing to hold on from a rampant Tiger outfit making a comeback.

Carlton will be happy to take the 11-point win over the Gold Coast Suns at Metricon Stadium last week. It is better to win ugly than an honourable loss, of which the Blues have been maters of in recent times.

It was Robbie Gray after the siren who broke Carlton hearts when these two sides met at the Gabba in Round 7 of last year.

Will we be in for another thrilling finish this Saturday night?

You’d love to see it, but I’ll take the Power 1-39 points for good measure and more importantly, value.

ADELADIE v FREMANTLE
Taylor Walker To Kick 5+ Goals @ $4

For the time being, any preview involving Adelaide will focus on how many goals Tex Walker is going to kick.

Right now, there is some hope that the big forward kicking the tonne could return and Tex is the man to do it.

Perhaps those pesky coaches with their defensive mindset will make sure he won’t get there, but it’s fun even contemplating it.

We’re not back to the glory days of the key forwards just yet, but we’ve found some space to allow them to do their thing.

The Crows are 3-1, playing at home and have been a far better team since the back end of last season.

So far in season 2021, Fremantle have proven to be absolutely hopeless outside of Perth.

The only thing that keeps me interested in this game, in fact, just about any game involving the Crows is Tex kicking another big bag of goals.

He missed a golden opportunity to really add to the tally last week against North with just the three, but there’s still time for Tex.

Anyone with a true appreciation of what Australian Rules Football is all about will take a big forward kicking big bags over some midfielder touching the ball 35+ times in a game every day of the week.

Tex’s resurgence has been a great thing and everyone who’s written him off (including yours truly) is loving every little bite of the humble pie.

Another chance for a big bag – 5+ from Tex in front of an adoring Adelaide Oval home crowd at $4 is something I can get around.

MELBOURNE v HAWTHORN
Melbourne -23.5 / Under 157.5 @ $4

Is Melbourne the real deal?

Can we actually trust them?

Will Dees fans start to believe once more?

Currently second on the ladder, 4-0 for the first time since 1994 – does the heart beat true for the red and blue in 2021?

The Dees ($1.30) are the clear favourites going into this clash against the Hawks and deservedly so.

There’s no reason why they should be 5-0 come Sunday night.

The likes of Max Gawn, Christian Petracca, Jack Viney and Clayton Oliver starred in their 25 point win over the Cats on Sunday.

Melbourne led all day and despite some poor kicking in front of goal and a bit of a charge from Geelong in the third quarter the game was never in doubt, there’s plenty to like about it.

Hawthorn is coming off a loss to Freo last week and allowed the Dockers to kick five unanswered first-quarter goals before fighting their way back into the game.

One thing we’ve learned from Clarko’s men this season is that they are always up for the fight.

In a similar fashion to the Dees win last Sunday, expect this game to be a bit of a slog before Melbourne runs away with it.

The line/total points unders double combo the way of Melbourne makes for a juicy value play.

GEELONG v NORTH MELBOURNE
Tom Hawkins to kick 4+ Goals @ $2.20

Fair to say the Cats are not looking like the best version of themselves right now, so they’ll welcome a much-needed rest.

By a much-needed rest, we mean they get to play North Melbourne in the Sunday twilight slot at GMHBA Stadium.

It doesn’t matter who’s in or who’s out, Geelong can bank the four premiership points now.

This game is just a matter of how much they will win it by.

I’ve looked at the margin markets and 60+ is $1.73, not bad, the line is a whopping -56.5 and North Melbourne is an outright $13 to cause a major upset which is simply not going to happen.

Goalkicker markets are where you will find value in this game, and I’ve taken a conservative estimate that Tom Hawkins will easily get 4+ in this match, most likely more.

At the $2.20 price, it’s a pretty good investment to finish off the round.

When the Kangaroos last made the trip down the highway in Round 21 2019, they kicked a measly 1-8 (14) for the entire game, if North can kick more than two goals for the game – consider it a win.

A special shout out to any North Melbourne supporter who’s making the trip to GMHBA Stadium this Sunday.

It’ll be worth it one day.