AFL Round 4 Tips & Preview

What a season of football we are witnessing.

High scoring games with big forwards kicking bags, what’s not to like?

The Sydney Swans, Western Bulldogs and the Melbourne Demons remain undefeated in season 2021.

A very good return for all three clubs, especially the Swans who finished last year with just five wins in total.

We again have a fascinating round of football in store and you can find our AFL Round 4 Tips & Preview below.

SGM - Total Points Overs INTO Swans to win by 25+

We are set for an exciting start to round 4 on Thursday night with both these teams playing a free flowing and fast paced brand of football so far this season.

The Bombers were the surprise packet of Round 3 when they came out and belted the St Kilda Football Club on Saturday afternoon to the tune of 75 points.

They managed just three more inside 50s than their opponents but they went at 59% once in there and they kicked extremely accurately (22.11).

John Longmire has his Sydney Swans firing on all cylinders to start the season and they not only defeated the defending premier at the weekend, they gave them a hiding.

The changing state of the game seems to be perfect for their run and play on at all costs type of play and for now, it is working.

The Bombers and Swans make up four of the top six highest scores so far through three rounds this season and I can see this one being another shoot out.

Port Adelaide to win by 1-24 @ $3.20

In an alternate reality Port Adelaide cling on to narrow victory in last year’s Preliminary Final and make their way to Brisbane for Grand Final week.

Of course in this version of things, they go on to lose to the mighty Brisbane Lions.

The Power suffered their first loss for season 2021 when they were convincingly beaten by West Coast away from home but they continue to thrive at the Adelaide Oval, as they did last year.

They have managed two of the six highest scores of any team through three rounds of football and their style of football will again trouble the Richmond Football club.

The Swans were too much for the Tigers to handle last week and they will have to learn to adapt if they are to remain at the top.

Richmond are a very good football team and they will be competitive week in, week out.

Port in a close one.

Under Total Points

Zac Bailey won the game for the Brisbane Lions for the second week in a row when he kicked a goal after the siren against the Pies last Thursday night.

That’s what we should be saying if the Lions (proudly sponsored by Neds) were not absolutely robbed against the Cats two weeks ago.

Joe Daniher found some form, booting three goals and collecting 18 disposals in the win against the Pies as did Dayne Zorko who had 24 touches (21 kicks).

The Doggies find themselves on top of the AFL ladder after their percentage booster against the Kangaroos.

Josh Bruce kicked 10 goals in their massive 128 point win.

Like they did against the Pies, the Lions will not allow the Dogs to score as freely as they have been doing.


West Coast 1-39 @ $2.15

St Kilda are a far better football side than they showed in a truly horrible performance against Essendon in round 3.

They were dominated from the outset and were playing catch up football for the entire afternoon.

They will be keen to atone for that performance but unfortunately they run into a pretty hot West Coast.

The Eagles were at their best when they beat Port Adelaide by 37 points last Saturday, a margin that flattered the Power who finished the game well.

A Luke Shuey hamstring injury put a dampener on the win in some regard but they will head to Melbourne full of confidence for this clash.

Gold Coast Suns v Carlton Blues
Carlton +3.5 @ $2.00

The Suns slumped to 1-2 record through three rounds when they were beaten by the Adelaide Crows on the weekend.

The game was there for the taking late in the piece but the Crows were simply too strong in the last five minutes of the game.

They return home to the Gold Coast where they are a much stronger outfit and they will take plenty of confidence from their first few rounds of football.

Carlton bring the same record into round four (2.1), but they come into this match off the back of a very impressive 45 point win over Fremantle on the weekend.

The Blues were far from disgraced against both Richmond and Collingwood, and that form line seems stronger than the Suns.

One can not tip Carlton with any confidence but they should be favourite in this contest and therefor there is some value to be found.


Collingwood 1-39 @ $2.05

The game has changed. A fast paced and free flowing style of football is seemingly being rewarded through three rounds and Nathan Buckley and his team have adapted really well.

The Pies were denied by an after the siren goal against the Lions last week but, in the first half at least, scoring did not seem an issue.

As soon as they shut up shop and decided to hang onto the football and play keepings off, they let the Lions back into the game.

The Giants are in trouble of falling right off the pace and they sit in 17th position on the AFL ladder without a win in season 2021.

Losses to St Kilda, Fremantle and Melbourne do not look good on the resume and it doesn’t get any easier for them in the coming weeks.


North Melbourne Kangaroos v Adelaide Crows
Rory Laird Most Disposals

North Melbourne conceding 20 of the last 22 goals when they went down to the ladder leading Western Bulldogs on Good Friday to the tune of 128 points.

There were not a lot of positives to come out of the win losing the inside 50 count by 31 and having 97 less disposals (47 contested).

The Crows find themselves inside the top eight through three rounds accounting for the Gold Coast Suns at home on the weekend.

Tex Walker has been a stand out for the Crows with 17 goals so far, a mammoth effort considering he kicked just 15 in season 2020.

I think the market has this one about right but I’ve found some value regardless.

Geelong Cats v Melbourne Demons
Geelong 25+ Points @ $3.05

The Cats find themselves 2-1 through three rounds of football in 2021 but the Grand Finalist from last season have been far from convincing.

They fell in against a fast finishing Hawthorn on Easter Monday, as they did against the Brisbane Lions a week before but they return home to Geelong for this clash against the unbeaten Melbourne Demons.

The Dees are coming off a 34 point victory over GWS having accounted for Fremantle and St Kilda the two weeks previous.

This is their toughest test so far this season and they will need to improve to be a threat against the Cats who regain some key personal from injury.

Fremantle Dockers v Hawthorn Hawks
Fremantle 1-24 @ $3.10

Hawthorn find themselves 1-2 through the opening three rounds of the 2021 season but they have been far from disgraced in their two losses to date.

A 29 point loss to Richmond was followed by a narrow defeat to Geelong on Easter Monday and there is plenty to like about the Hawks so far this season.

Fremantle were disappointing against Carlton when losing by 45 points in round three but their youngsters continue to develop well.

2020 Rising Star Caleb Sarong collected 22 disposals in that game against the Blues and Stefan Giro had 20 touches (16 kicks).

This is a tough way to end the round but the home ground factor may be the point of difference in this contest.