From Brisbane’s mugging to Buddy’s big return, we wrap-up another drama-filled weekend of AFL with all the numbers, best bets, movers, and firmers in our Round 2 edition of The Snapshot below.
Performance of the Week
Looks like the Dogs have really come out snarlin’ this year.
Luke Beveridge’s side staved off a very brave West Coast outfit by seven points at Marvel on Sunday in what was easily the most exciting game of Round 2, if not the entire season so far.
The Dogs trailed by a couple of goals at three-quarter time before both sides went on to trade blows in a thrilling final term.
West Coast’s Jamaine Jones put the visitors on top with under four minutes remaining, but like we’ve seen time and time again, the Dogs managed to find Aaron Naughton in front from the centre clearance before the Bont eventually iced it with his third goal of the game.
They were as short as $1.50 at the opening bounce, but plenty had the Dogs in their multi over the weekend to either win, or lead half-time/full-time @ $1.75.
- Scott Pendlebury 25+ Disposals @ $1.64: safe as houses this one. Pendles has now recorded 26+ disposals in eight of Collingwood’s last nine games against Carlton at the MCG.
- Collingwood (-0.5): there wasn’t much separating the Blues and the Pies on Thursday night, which comes as a surprise considering Collingwood has now covered in six of their last seven games against Carlton.
- Geelong @ $1.60: we’re still not completely over it, but the Cats have now won 12 straight over Brisbane at ‘The Cattery’ dating back to 2003.
- The Over at the SCG: worth jotting this one down for future reference. Each of the Swans’ last six-day games at the SCG have gone Over the Total.
- Melbourne @ $2.25: lots to like if you’re a Dees fan right now, but even more so if you’re a punter. After defeating the Saints in Saturday, the underdog has now won each of the last five games between St Kilda and Melbourne.
- Gold Coast Suns (-20.5): it was only North Melbourne, but the Suns winning by a massive 59-points on Saturday night was still pretty extraordinary. As a result, Gold Coast has now covered in 11 of its last 13 games against the Kangaroos.
- Hawthorn (+30.5): we’ll chat a little more about this one later, but after a late goal from Tyler Brockman, the Hawks have now covered the line in five straight games at the ‘G.
- West Coast (+12.5): if you backed the Eagles outright, you should’ve listened to the trends. After losing by seven on Sunday, West Coast has now covered in each of his last six games against the Dogs.
- Fremantle (-1.5): write this down, record a voice memo, we don’t care – just memorise it. Fremantle has now covered the line in five of its last six games following a previous loss.
If You’re Not First, You’re Last
Jack of All Trades
Tough to name a player that looks more improved than Jack Lukosius right now. While you were likely watching the St Kilda/Melbourne game on Saturday night, Lukosius got the Suns on the board first @ $41 in our First Goal Kicker market. The 20-year-old has looked deadly since moving from half-back to the wing – evident in the fact he finished with 12 score involvements against the Roos. Something tells us we’ll be seeing a lot more from him moving forward.
Crazy to think Caleb Daniel’s best footy is still to come. It feels like he’s been a the league for a decade, but at just 24, he remains one of the most exciting players to watch in the Dogs’ lineup. Anyway, he also kicked the first goal of the game on Sunday against West Coast paying $29.00. Not bad for a bloke that kicked only three last season.
There wasn’t a lot to like about GWS on Sunday, but at least Jacob Hopper managed to line punters’ pockets as a $41 First Goal Kicker. Leon Cameron’s side will need plenty more of that with tough games against Melbourne and Collingwood coming up.
Unless you’re a hardcore Geelong fan, you’d be forgiven for not knowing the name Francis Evans. The youngster was drafted with the Cats’ 41st pick back in 2019 despite having played only two games in the NAB League that year. Long story short, the wiery 19-year-old kicked Geelong’s first goal on debut, a good collect for anyone brave enough to back him @ $17.00.
The Baggage Area
The first two weeks of the season have been exciting for a variety of reasons, and one of those is the big Texan’s return to form.
After kicking a five-goal bag in Round 1 against the Cats, Taylor Walker went one better last week snagging six for the fourth time in his career.
The game got away from Adelaide after the first quarter, but Tex didn’t die wondering as he pinned not one, not two, but three Swans players holding the ball to line up and add to his growing tally.
Jordan de Goey, Josh Kennedy and Eric Hipwood all kicked four themselves, but after some early dominance, it would be rude not to dedicate this entire section to Tex.
Seemingly under the impression that last the previous week was a fluke, the bookies listed Tex @ $15.00 to Kick 5+ Goals, an absolute fill-up for anyone brave enough to trust him!
Tom Mitchell holds the current AFL record for most disposals in a game (54), but it wouldn’t be surprising if we see that record broken the way things are trending this year.
The 2018 Brownlow Medalist tallied 37 in the loss to the Tigers, but Round 2 was all about Jack Macrae.
The Doggies midfielder always racks up the numbers in the disposal count, but he went and outdid himself on Sunday tallying 41 in the win over West Coast.
If you’ve lost count, Macrae has now finished with 40 or more disposals 10 times in his career, which is only six off Mitchell’s individual tally.
If you took Macrae to Have 35+ @ $2.65, you’ve done extremely well.
The Coleman Count
We just spoke about Taylor Walker and is league-leading 11 goals, so it’s no surprise to find him $8.00 in from $23.00 in our Coleman Medal market.
Defending Coleman winner Tom Hawkins currently sits atop the market at $5.00 after kicking three against Brisbane, while Tom Lynch (Richmond), Charlie Dixon and Josh Kennedy are all tied at $7.00 apiece.
Like a Librarian
It was sensational to see Buddy back on the paddock this week kicking goals, but this run-down from Paul Seedsman is hands down our pick for the tackle of the week.
Forgive & Forget
It’s been a rough start to the season for the reigning minor premiers, but we’re very confident our boys can bounce-back ahead of this week’s rescheduled fixture at Marvel against Collingwood.
There’s no denying the umpires cost Brisbane last week, but there was also a lot to like about the way the Lions answered after trailing by 20-points at half-time.
As far as betting goes, this is definitely the time to jump on board the Brisbane bandwagon with enormous value on offer.
As of Monday, the bookies are seemingly off Brisbane with their price to win the Premiership drifting from $8.00 out to $11.00. Better yet, the Lions are also $2.10 out to $2.50 to Make the Top 4.
It’s a two-horse, or should we say two-swan, race in the Rising Star market.
There’s been a massive move for Errol Gulden with the young-gun firming from $7.00 into the $3.50 favourite after finishing with a goal and 22 disposals against the Crows last week.
Not far behind Gulden is his fellow teammate and cohort Braeden Campbell. The 19-year-old entered calculations in Round 1 with a tidy display against the Lions before outdoing himself last week with 25 touches against Adelaide.
Like Gulden, Campbell has firmed from $11.00 into $5.00 with our bookies.
For The Blackbookers
One of the names that really stood out on Sunday was Hawthorn defender Changkuoth Jiath.
The 21-year-old still looks a little green at times with the ball in hand, but he consistently takes the game, and some of the league’s best players on, as you can see below.
Not that they need it, but Port Adelaide also looks to have a bright young forward on its hands in the form of 19-year-old Mitch Georgiades.
The youngster was a late inclusion against the Bombers on Saturday, but he quickly made his presence known kicking four goals in the Power’s 54-point romp.
Lastly, we have to give another shoutout to a man we mentioned last week – Kysaiah Pickett.
The 19-year-old has really injected Melbourne’s forward line with some excitement and flash, while he’s also capable of making something pretty special happen out of nothing.
- Richmond (-30.5): if you lost your multi by a leg on the Tigers -30.5, you have Hawthorn forward Tyler Brockman to blame. As spoken about earlier, the youngster lined up in garbage time to kick the final goal of the game to bring the margin back to 29.
- Scott Pendlebury 30+ Disposals @ $3.05: great game from Pendles last Thursday, but watching him finish all square with 30 disposals was a punch in the nuts to anyone that backed him 30+.
- Christian Petracca 30+ @ $2.20: Petracca continues to flirt with big numbers, but like Pendlebury, watching him finish one shy of 30+ was agonising.
- Marcus Bontempelli 30+ @ $3.75: see above.