The Snapshot: AFL Round 1 Recap

Punters were left licking their wounds over the weekend following another wild opening round of footy.

Adelaide’s upset over Geelong spoiled plenty of multis nice and early on Saturday while there were also a few surprising standouts on the stat sheet with several young names going large.  

From a betting perspective, Patrick Dangerfield’s case with the tribunal and Matt Rowell’s knee injury both have the potential to throw the Brownlow and the Rising Star markets into complete chaos.

Premiership betting, on the other hand, got a lot more interesting following Brisbane’s loss to Sydney.  

After the book largely came out on top, we’ve got you covered with all the numbers you need to know in our Round 1 edition of The Snapshot below.

Power Rankings

Performance of the Week

How about those Crows?

Round 1 delivered three upsets, the most surprising of which was Adelaide’s all-the-way victory over the premiership hopeful Cats.

The Crows got out to $4.20 head-to-head before kickoff, a reasonable price for a team that just finished with the wooden spoon a year earlier.

Matthew Nicks’ side was well-supported to achieve a similar result before the season began, but after forcing Geelong into a handful of mistakes in the first half, it wouldn’t be surprising if this young and feisty Crows team pulls off a few more upsets before it’s all said and done.

Adelaide’s tackling and pressure was immense, and while things got a little hairy with ten minutes to go, the result was a fill-up for anyone brave enough to actually back them.

We’ll touch on Tex Walker a little later, but if you got on the Crows straight-up, or better yet, Adelaide Half-Time/Full-Time @ $5.75, you did very well!

Punters Pals

  • Collingwood losing in Round 1: you might not know it, but the Pies have now lost each of their last six Round 1 games at the MCG.
  • The Under on Pies Games at the ‘G: its quirky, but take note: each of Collingwood’s last eight games at the ‘G have gone under the total match points line.
  • The Under on Melbourne Games at the ‘G: 11 of Melbourne’s last 13 games at the MCG have now gone Under. The Dees were awful in front of the sticks on Saturday, so this one probably doesn’t surprise.
  • Adelaide (+27.5): the home team has covered in 16 of the last 18 games between the Crows and Cats. Bet you wish you knew this one before the bounce.
  • Hawthorn to Win 1st Quarter: after leading by three on Saturday, the Hawks have now won the first quarter in each of their last five games at Marvel.
  • The Over on Lions Games: bit of a trend emerging here. The total has now gone Over in each of Brisbane’s last six games.
  • Port Adelaide in Round 1: Port opened -33.5 favourites against North on Sunday, and for good reason. The Power have now won each of their last six Round 1 games by 25 points or more!
  • Josh Kelly 25+ Disposals: GWS’ star midfielder has been money in the 25+ Disposals market. He’s now accounted for 25 or more in 16 of his last 18 games.
  • Harry Himmelberg 2+ Goals @ $2.70: the beautiful man himself has now kicked 2+ in each of GWS’ last 10 games at GIANTS Stadium. Worth bookmarking this one for Round 8.

If You’re Not First You’re Last

The book felt the pinch on Thursday night when Levi Casboult kicked the first in the traditional opener between Tigers/Blues, but it didn’t take long for the tide to turn.

Laitham Vandermeer played a huge part in the Dogs’ win on Friday night, kicking the first of the game against Collingwood @ $18 before adding another in the second term.

We’ll talk more about Taylor Walker shortly, but the big Texan was also a handy collect for anyone that had him @ $8.50 on Saturday against the Cats.

From there, things got pretty rough.

It took over 10 minutes for the Demons to finally find the scoreboard against the Dockers, but the wait was worth it once second year forward Kysaiah Pickett kicked his first goal at AFL level.

The 19-year-old was paying a very generous $29.00 in our First Goal Kicker market and a cool $2.20 Anytime.

From there, Jonathan Ceglar took the reins. It took all of 51 seconds for Hawthorn’s tall timber to line up right in front, booting the Hawks home first at a whopping $41 tag.

Our very own Zac Bailey was also a monster collect on Saturday against the Swans paying $23, followed of course, by promising Port Adelaide mid Karl Amon, who kicked his first of the year at 41-1.

The Baggage Area

Okay, Tex time.

The fan favourite was simply sensational against the Cats on Saturday kicking a five-goal bag for the 12th time in his career.

In a performance reminiscent of days long gone, Tex got things started nice and early by kicking the first goal of the game before adding four more in Adelaide’s shock 12-point win.  

The big man was $5.20 for Most Goals and $6.20 to Kick 4+ in our market. Some call it a fluke, some say he’s back, but either way, Tex was by far one of the top performers from Round 1.

Outside of Walker, three players helped themselves to a four-goal bag.

Jack Riewoldt opened his bid for another Coleman nice and early with four against the Blues, while you couldn’t have asked for a more impressive debut from Orazio Fantasia in his Port Adelaide debut.

With a one-point loss to Hawthorn and both Joe Daniher and Fantasia performing extremely well in their new homes, it was a difficult weekend for Essendon fans, but hopefully a few of you took the $12.00 about the latter for Most Goals.

Last but not least, Oscar Allen.

West Coast were a little unconvincing at times against the Suns, but they still managed to scrape home thanks to a career-high four-goal bag from the Perth native.

The 22-year-old was $11.00 to kick the first goal and $7.25 in our Most Goals market.

Disposal Demons

One very familiar face dominated the disposal department.

You mightn’t have even noticed, but Tom Mitchell racked up 39 against the Bombers on Saturday night in another three-vote worthy performance.

Mitchell was paying $2.70 to Have 35+ Disposals and was one of only two players in Round 1 to surpass the mark.

The other, Bailey Smith, also earned himself three Brownlow votes in a career-best performance against the Pies on Friday night.

The AFL’s most beautiful mullet was paying $11.50 to Have 35+, while teammate Jackson Macrae picked up right where he left off with 35 of his own.

Further down, Essendon’s Andrew McGrath also made his presence felt with 33 against the Hawks. He and teammate Zach Merrett both came through in the 30+ market @ $2.70 and $1.58 respectively.

Last but not least, another familiar face in a new place, Jaidyn Stephenson.

The former Magpie went large with 33 disposals in North’s loss to Port.

Mr Irrelevant

Patrick Dangerfield might have a few weeks to dwell on a pretty forgettable outing against his former club on Saturday.

As far as the scoresheet was concerned, the star midfielder was a complete no-show after getting into as short as $1.16 in our Anytime Goal Kicker market.

Another Brownlow Medalist has also made the list this week following a goalless performance against the Dees.

Nat Fyfe was huge in the disposal department, but he still let punters down in a big way on the scoresheet as a $1.19 Anytime Goal Kicker chance.  

One For the Blackbookers

Where do we even start?

So many young players made a name for themselves in Round 1, a strong indication that the game is in for a very bright and exciting future.

From both a fan and a punting perspective, nobody was more fun to watch than Adelaide’s young Rising Star candidate Lachlan Sholl.

The fourth-round pick flashed plenty of potential late last season before returning with a huge 23 disposal performance against the Cats – a nice collect for those that backed him @ $2.30 to Have 20+ Disposals.

While it pained us to see, we also have to give 18-year-old Errol Gulden plenty of props for a three-goal debut against our Lions.

Speaking of goals, Hawthorn looks to have a serious playmaker on their hands in the form of Tyler Brockman.

The former third-round pick booted two on debut against the Bombers in what was a very comfortable performance in front of goal. He’s likely to remain short in our Anytime market, but don’t be surprised if he kicks a bag sometime this season.  

Like a Librarian

With fans back in the stands, the pressure was red hot over the weekend as we reveled in non-stop “balllllllll!” chants from Thursday through to Sunday.

A handful of well-timed tackles standout, but the best had to be Lachlan Murphy’s run down on Sean Menegola on Saturday.

Not to be outdone, Blues fans were also treated to this ripping chase from Jack Silvagni.

Speccy Magee

No shortage of speccy’s in Round 1, either.

This Mark of the Year contender from Shane McAdams deserves no further explanation.

Not to be outdone, Jack Darling also put it ALL on the line with this big grab to give West Coast the lead heading into the half-time break.

Bad Beats

We had a handful of bad beats over the weekend, most of which came in the disposals market.

We spoke about Macrae’s huge effort against the Pies earlier, but unfortunately, he fell one shy of covering 35+ Disposals @ $3.50.

Likewise, Clayton Oliver finished all even at 35 – another tough watch for those that backed him 35+ @ $2.75.

Bloody Good Bets

Round 1 is always good for a few upsets, and plenty of Neds punters managed to cash-in on their multis as a result.

Here’s a look at the best from Round 1:

Richmond v Carlton:

  • $20 into $1,522: Dustin Martin Anytime Goal Kicker, Jason Castagna Anytime Goal Kicker, Tom Lynch Anytime Goal Kicker, Richmond to Lead at Every Quarter, Levi Casboult Anytime Goal Kicker, Jack Riewoldt Anytime Goal Kicker, Jayden Short to Have 20+ Disposals, Patrick Cripps to Have 25+ Disposals, Dustin Martin to Have 20+ Disposals, Shai Bolton Anytime Goal Kicker, Shane Edwards to have 20+ Disposals, Richmond to Win

Collingwood v Western Bulldogs

  • $1500 into $36,810: Bailey Williams to Have 20+ Disposals, Scott Pendlebury to Have 20+ Disposals, Marcus Bontempelli to Have 20+ Disposals, Brayden Maynard to Have 20+ Disposals, Tom Liberatore to Have 20+ Disposals, Josh Dunkley to Have 20+ Disposals, Jack Macrae to Have 30+ Disposals, Caleb Daniel to Have 25+ Disposals

Brisbane Lions v Sydney Swans:

  • $200 into $11,332: Luke Parker Anytime Goal Kicker, Sydney Swans to win 1st Half, James Rowbotteon to Have 20+ Disposals, Jordan Dawson to Have 20+ Disposals, Over 160.5 Total Points, Sydney Swans to Win

Don’t Tell the Misso

If you lost your multi on the Cats or the Swans, don’t fear, this bloke has us all covered after falling one leg SHORT.