I don’t see a huge amount of value on this match, but Osaka 2-0 at $1.62 does stick out. She is unquestionably the best player on the WTA right now and has had a very strong tournament.
She looked especially good in her Semi Final, handling Serena Williams with relative ease. Having already previously won an Australian Open, I also don’t see her getting overwhelmed by the moment either.
Her opponent, Jennifer Brady, actually had a .500 record in grand slam matches before this tournament. This was propped up as well by an improbable run to the semis at the US Open last year. She has had a very favourable run to this point, not facing anyone higher than the #25 seed.
Overall, I think this is a pretty big mismatch and that Osaka has her covered in all major categories. The obvious caveat to that is the unpredictability of the WTA, where we regularly see crazy results. I don’t see Osaka losing this one straight up, but the 2-0 does add considerably more value.