I’m going to take Medvedev -1.5 sets here, currently listed at a generous $1.80. I thought the $1.40 starting price for Medvedev was about fair, but this implies that he wins in 5 sets at least half the time.
Despite getting a walkover in round 4, there’s every chance Tsitsipas enters this one fatigued. He’s had two very long 5-setters, including one that finished past midnight against Nadal. Medvedev, on the other hand, has won 15 out of 17 sets he’s played this tournament.
I also think Tsitsipas was fairly lucky to beat Nadal and is probably a bit overrated here as a result. After winning the first two sets, Nadal really should’ve won the 3rd set tie-break, before getting broken late in the 4th and 5th sets.
Medvedev has looked in excellent form recently, making the US Open semis last year and looking unphased so far here in Australia. He was especially dominant over #7 seed Rublev in the quarters, looking untroubled in a straight sets win.
Ultimately, the straight up odds are right here and Medvedev should win this around 70-75% of the time. I think there’s a disconnect between the match price and the set handicap price, as it is much more likely he wins in 3 or 4 sets against a fatigued opponent. At $1.80, this looks like the best value play on the board here.