I was initially leaning towards over 21.5 games at $1.85, but felt that over 2.5 sets at $2.50 was ultimately better value. As the odds would suggest, this is a relatively even matchup on paper that projects as a close one.
I’m not sure it’ll play out that way, but I wouldn’t expect either of these women to lay a complete egg here. Both women have had relatively easy draws so far, but have been pushed to 3 sets in their tougher matches.
Their last match at the Aus Open was 2 years ago, which was ultimately a very close 3-setter. It’s fair to say Serena has lost a step since then, but that only serves to make these two closer.
I can definitely see some uncompetitive set scores, but at current $2.50 odds, over 2.5 sets seems like the sensible bet. We only need a 40% success rate to break even, when I think this is much closer to an even money bet.