Aus Open – Day 8

Rafael Nadal vs Fabio Fognini, 3 pm
Nadal 3-0 $2.05

Opting for a bit of a different play here, taking Nadal to win 3-0 at decent $2.05 odds. Rafa has been in exquisite form so far, winning all 9 sets and not even going to a tie-break.

Fognini did pull off an impressive win over De Minaur last time out, but the hard court definitely isn’t his favoured surface. Entering this tournament, he is actually below .500 for his career on hard court grand slams.

He prefers the clay court, like Rafa, and is essentially a poor man’s version of the same player archetype. Nadal has the better serve, speed, and shot-making ability, which is why I don’t expect too much trouble here.

As always, it depends on just how ‘on it’ these superstars are in matches like these. With Nadal yet to have a mental slip so far, I’m confident that continues here, at least at plus money odds.

ATP Multi

There seems to be scope for another multi here, with 3 favourites ranging from $1.11 out to $1.25. There are a few other potential options in the WTA, like Barty and Brady, but I’m sticking with the ATP here.

In the Nadal pick, I touched on why I’m expecting a relatively comfortable night at the office for Rafa. Even if he doesn’t win in straights, I think it’s unlikely that he loses straight up. There is a similar mismatch in the Rublev vs Ruud game, where Rublev should really overpower him.

Tsitsipas is our last option, providing the bulk of the value at his $1.25 price point. He has been inconsistent so far, dispatching of Simon and Ymer, but getting taken to 5 sets by ‘The Kokk’. I think he has enough quality to narrowly beat Berrettini here, providing enough surplus value to be included in the multi.