Aus Open – Day 6

Multi: De Minaur/Ruud/Medvedev/Brady
Odds of $1.92

Depending on what comes up in round 4, this could be the last of the multi’s for the tournament. We’ve changed the criteria a tad, with prices ranging from $1.07 all the way out to $1.29.

We’ve got 3 ATP players in here, with Medvedev at $1.07, Bahamas resident De Minaur at $1.18 and Casper Ruud at $1.29. Given the success of WTA players in yesterday’s multi, I’m also including Jennifer Brady at $1.18.

These four combine for a payout of $1.92, which is essentially the same as your average sports handicap price. The potential success of this bet likely hinges on Ruud, who has been in strong form of late. We need this bet to hit 53% of the time to be profitable and I think this is +EV.

Andrey Rublev vs Feliciano Lopez, TBD
Lopez +8.5

I don’t think Lopez has much chance at an upset here, but he does represent decent value at +8.5 games. Now 39 years of age, he remains one of the better servers on tour.

Rublev has looked great so far, but he hasn’t covered -8.5 in either of his matches. I’d argue that Lopez is his best opponent so far, especially on the serving side.

Lopez did come off a gruelling 5-setter last time out, so the case could be made that he’s fatigued here. There is probably an element of that, but I’m not expecting a long match here. I think his serve is enough to keep him competitive and cash with a scoreline like 7-5, 6-4, 6-3.