Another day, another four leg multi on offer. A bit of a bigger price range with our options today, going from Tsitsipas at $1.10 to Krajinovic at $1.13 and Khachanov and Coric at $1.20 each.
I’m again operating under the theory that favourites between $1.10 and $1.20 are actually undervalued on the current market. The extended quarantine could change things a little, but we’ve seen the favourites get up in heavy numbers over the opening 3 days.
These are four very accomplished players at ATP level, all with significant talent advantages over their respective opponents. When combined together, I think the $1.78 price point on offer represents good value.
Finding a conventional spread play was difficult today, but the model suggests that over 39.5 games in Ruud vs Paul is a strong play. The straight up odds for these two are quite even, with Ruud at $1.80 and Paul at $2.
This suggests we’re in for a relatively tight 4 or 5-setter, which I would agree with. Both of these players also have a propensity for tie-breaks, which naturally lends itself to more total games in a match
Additionally, the vig is in our favour here, with over 39.5 games currently priced at $2. I think this is somewhere around a 54-55% play, so definitely +EV at the current number.