Looking back at some recent Aus Open data, favourites between $1.11 and $1.2 have been plus EV for bettors. At an average start price of $1.15, they’ve won just over 90% of matches over the past 8 years.
I’m opting for four such favourites here, all between $1.13 and $1.17, giving us a payout of $1.70. I wouldn’t classify any of these as ‘sure things’, but most will win this type of match about 90% of the time.
A 5-set tennis match weights itself heavily towards the favourite, which is why we tend to see much fewer upsets on the ATP side. The lengthy quarantine throws a potential spanner in the works, but these are professional athletes that I trust to remain in top shape.
This looks like one of the premier matchups on day 1, between two men that have previously made Aus Open Finals. I’m opting for a total play here, going over 39.5 sets for the match.
Both of these men are elite level servers and have consistently held above 85% of the time on hard court. They are also both prone to tie-breaks, which further helps our chance at the over.
The odds aren’t too far apart either, with Dimitrov at $1.65 and Cilic out at $2.20. This implies that the most likely outcomes are Dimitrov in either 4 or 5 sets. If we get 4 sets with at least 1 tie-break, it’s hard to imagine we don’t get 50 games.