I’m going to take Portland here, currently getting 1.5 points against the Spurs. The Blazers are dealing with a few key injuries here, but I believe the market has over-accounted for them with this line.
Damian Lillard has excelled without CJ McCollum in the past and I see no reason why he can’t continue that against a pedestrian Spurs defense. He was excellent against Atlanta last time out and should thrive as the lone playmaker here.
While the Spurs have had a strong road record this season, I believe now is the time to start fading them. The fact that I’m getting points with Portland at home here means the value is too good to pass up.
This matchup comes at a great time for Milwaukee and I’d back them to cover the 2.5-point line on the road here. The expectation is that Kyrie Irving will be out due to Covid protocols and I only recommend this bet if he’s absent.
This leaves Brooklyn relatively thin in the backcourt, relying heavily on fringe rotation players like TLC and Bruce Brown. Brooklyn are also very weak on the interior, which doesn’t bode well against Giannis’ driving style.
The Bucks have been under the radar this season, but they’ve quietly won 6 of their last 7 games and are looking very good. I expect them to put up a lot of points here against a weak Brooklyn defense, doing enough defensively to secure a win and cover.