Super Bowl LV will be an event like no other, to end a season like no other.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers, led by 43-year-old, six time Super Bowl champion and offseason signing of the millennium, Tom Brady, will be the first team to host the big game and play in it at the same time.
It will be a tough task for them to become the first team to win a Super Bowl title in their home stadium however, with the defending champion Kansas City Chiefs the final hurdle for them to clear.
Kansas City heads into this game favoured by around a field goal, having defeated Tampa Bay 27-24 at this same venue in late November.
Their offence is borderline unstoppable and with reigning Super Bowl MVP and half a billion dollar man Patrick Mahomes at the helm, the Chiefs will be aiming to be the first team to win back to back titles since Brady’s Patriots did it in the 2003 and 2004 seasons.
As if that is not strange enough, this will be the first home playoff game for the Buccaneers since January 2008 after playing three straight away matches to reach the decider.
Neds has plenty of Super Bowl markets available and we have found our best bets for Super Bowl LV right here.
Total Points Market
As you would expect in any game featuring the greatest quarterback of all time and the best quarterback in the NFL right now, the points line for Super Bowl LV is quite high.
When the market was opened on Monday after the Conference Championship Games the number was at 57.5 but has come down to 56 at the time of publish.
A 56 point total would be the third highest number in Super Bowl history behind the 57 for Super Bowl XLIV between New Orleans and Indianapolis (which went under), and 57.5 for Super Bowl LI between New England and Atlanta (which went over).
Generally, Super Bowls tend to be quite cagey affairs with both sides opting for highly conservative approaches in the first half to ensure they do not fall too far behind.
Both coaches, Andy Reid and Bruce Arians fall on the aggressive side of the scale and won’t hesitate to go for it early on.
I’m expecting this game to be quite close to the game from three years ago between Philadelphia and New England where both offences marched up and down the field.
56 is a massive number but it is not scaring me off with the offensive talent on both sides.
I’ll also have a play on the Chiefs team total since it seems highly unlikely Tampa Bay will be able to keep them under 30 points, even in a victory.
Over 56 Points @ $1.90
Chiefs Over 29.5 Points @ $1.90
Buccaneers Player Props
One of the toughest parts of backing the Buccaneers offence is that they have so many options, it’s hard to forecast which direction they will go.
To have any chance of success they will need to move the ball and score on just about every possession they get, which means there will be plenty of chances for Tom Brady to spread the ball around.
It does not seem likely that Brady will drop back and throw the ball on every play and Tampa will try to control the clock by balancing things out with the running game.
That makes Leonard Fournette a valuable option as he has emerged as Tampa’s lead back throughout the postseason.
In the air, Brady has any number of targets to aim for but in a game like this, when he has to have a play made, you just know he is going to go to his old security blanket, Rob Gronkowski.
I’ll back both of those players to score touchdowns for the Buccaneers as they try to match the Chiefs offence score for score.
Leonard Fournette Anytime Touchdown Scorer @ $2.65
Rob Gronkowski Anytime Touchdown Scorer @ $2.80
Chiefs Player Props
There have been two plays that are near certainties in the Chiefs run to Super Bowl LV and that is backing the over for receiving yards for Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce.
After seeing Hill go for over 200 yards and two touchdowns in the first quarter of their November you have to expect Tampa to dedicate all of their resources to ensuring that he does not burn them again.
In that game the Buccaneers thought it was a bright idea to leave Hill in single coverage and Carlton Davis had a very rough afternoon running 10 yards behind Hill, chances are they will not make that mistake in this game.
On top of that, despite his production goal line to goal line, Hill is yet to find the end zone this postseason, so because of those two factors I’m calling him a stay away at his current price.
Rookie running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire was held in check in the AFC Championship Game and could be in for a tough day with a beaten up offensive line.
However on the goal line he is going to get his opportunities to break through from close range and at $2.85, is well worth a punt.
With the Buccaneers likely selling out on Hill, that should give even more opportunities for Kelce to take over.
In two games these playoffs, the Chiefs tight end has caught 21 passes for 227 yards and three touchdowns.
With Tampa’s safeties both battling injuries, Kelce is primed for a big day and should easily surpass his six catches for 43 yards and a touchdown from last year’s Super Bowl.
Clyde-Edwards Helaire Anytime Touchdown Scorer @ $2.85
SGM: Travis Kelce Over 97.5 Receiving Yards & Anytime TD Scorer @ $2.40
Result Market
Now for the play you’ve probably scrolled through this whole preview to find, who is going to win the Super Bowl.
Kansas City’s offensive line is beaten up and Tampa has the pass rush to get after Mahomes however we have seen time and time again that Mahomes can make a play from anywhere on the field, even if he has to run around to give his receivers time.
On top of that, both of the Buccaneers’ top safeties are under an injury cloud and that does not bode well for trying to cap the big plays.
It’s a dangerous, and some might say stupid idea to back against Tom Brady in the Super Bowl however in this instance, my head says Chiefs to outscore Tampa in a shootout.
However in the interests of an insurance bet, if Tampa is going to win, Tom Brady will almost certainly claim his fifth Super Bowl MVP award so that’s the insurance play in the event of a Buccaneers upset.
Chiefs to Win by 1-13 Points @ $2.50
Tom Brady Super Bowl MVP @ $3.00