The Wolves have been absolutely atrocious this season and I think Atlanta is good value as a relatively small 4.5-point favourite. Minnesota just haven’t been competitive without KAT this season and the absences of Rubio and Hernangomez make things even more difficult.
Atlanta do have a few injuries of their own, but I think they’ve got the top-end talent to make up for it. Trae Young in particular should have a very good game here, going up against a porous Minnesota perimeter defense.
I also like the matchup for Atlanta’s bigs in Capela and Collins, who should dominate the Wolves backup frontcourt. If the Hawks play to their potential, this is a game I would expect them to win and cover relatively comfortably.
This is a high-profile ESPN game, one where I think Phoenix has the slight edge at home. They’ve been impressive in their limited home games this season, going 3-1 both straight up and ATS. They also enter this one fully healthy, with all of their key players expected to suit up.
It may just be a conference finals hangover, but the Nuggets haven’t been the same side this season. They’re only 7-7 straight up and a fairly poor 5-9 ATS. Michael Porter’s absence has loomed large and he’s officially listed as questionable here.
Overall, I would expect the elite guard play from Phoenix to ultimately prove the difference in this one. If they can continue shooting well from 3, they should have too much not to come away with the win and cover.