I think the line is relatively well set here, so I’ll instead opt for a total play, going over 7.5 runs.
This is largely because of projected Dodgers starter Tony Gonsolin, who doesn’t inspire a huge amount of confidence.
He hasn’t started a game since September, where he looked shaky against a fairly anaemic Angels side.
Tampa had one of the best offenses in the majors this season and could definitely give him trouble here.
On the flipside, we’ve got Blake Snell going up against the Dodgers all-star lineup.
Snell is certainly a competent pitcher, but the Dodgers lineup tends to get their share against anybody.
I think Gonsolin will go for a few runs early here, meaning they’ll be more likely to be aggressive and go for the higher-variance play.
They showed yesterday that they can attack this Tampa bullpen and I’d expect more of the same here.
Set relatively low at 7.5 runs, I’ll take the value on the over.