Week 1 of the NRL Finals went off without a hitch as the favourites went four-from-four in a fairly uneventful start to the postseason.
The futures market has received some love with the Panthers firming and the Roosters drifting, while the Rabbitohs have entered calculations in a big way after pulling off their second straight blowout.
The book received a firm loss with all four favourites saluting, but it did manage to make up a stack of ground on First Try Scorer results.
If you’re frothing some figures ahead of Finals Week 2, you’ll find all you need to know in another edition of The Offload below!
Performance of the Week
Punters had every right to feel apprehensive about the Rabbitohs’ chances on Sunday following a final month of the season that featured a gut-wrenching loss to the Bulldogs and a big win over the Roosters.
Fans probably felt the early onset of PTSD against the Knights after allowing two tries out wide in the opening 10-minutes, but that seemed to only motivate Souths as the Bunnies went on to score not five, not six, but seven unanswered tries in another massive 46-20 win.
Alex Johnston, who was paying $1.60 Anytime, gave punters their first green tick in the 23rd following a beautiful set-up pass from Damien Cook.
The competition’s leading try scorer doubled his value quite literally in the second half when finding the line for another paying $3.50.
Souths were paying only $2.25 to win by 13+ in our market, so it’s obvious the bookies were expecting something of a blowout.
Not surprisingly, the Rabbitohs at are similar odds against Parramatta on Saturday night, the same team they defeated 38-0 back in August.
Don’t Argue…
With Nathan Cleary.
The 22-year-old scored his first career hat-trick last weekend, a result that caught absolute everyone, including the book, off guard.
Cleary was paying a cheeky $26.00 to Score a Hat-Trick, which he went about with ease by beating the likes of James Tedesco down the left-hand side of the line.
Of course, the added cherry on top was Cleary’s game-winning field goal in the 77th minute, a result that saw the Panthers get up as the $1.77 favourite!
Punters Pals
- Josh Mansour Anytime @ $2.20: the Panthers’ winger continues to prove that age is just a number after scoring a try in his seventh consecutive game on Friday night.
- Ronaldo Mulitalo Anytime @ $2.50: Mulitalo ensured Sharks fans didn’t walk away empty-handed on Saturday against the Raiders by scoring in his fifth consecutive game to cap off a brilliant breakthrough season.
- The Storm in Queensland: we’ve harped on about this all year, but the Storm continue to dominate in Queensland after winning their 19th consecutive game in the Sunshine State.
- Blake Ferguson Anytime @ $2.70: after playing the waiting game for most of the season, Fergo has suddenly found some form after scoring against the Storm last week. If you’ve been keeping count, that’s four from his last five games!
- Ryan Papenhuyzen at Suncorp: turns out Paps also loves playing at Suncorp. He’s now scored in each of his last four appearances at the home of the Broncos after scoring a double last week against the Eels.
- Alex Johnston to Score 2 Tries or More @ $3.50: this has quickly become one of the most underrated trends in recent history. After finding the line twice against the Knights on Sunday, Johno has now scored a double in four of Souths last five home games against the Knights.
Don’t Forget About…
Tevita Tatola.
We hate to put our Rabbitohs hat on for the second time, but we do have to give some props to the 23-year-old for scoring his first career double against the Knights on Sunday.
Tatola has played limited minutes in 19 of Souths 21 games so far this season, which meant he went around at juicy $17.00 odds in our market To Score 2 Tries or More.
After showing some real poise to clean up a Kalyn Ponga error last week, you can expect to see a lot more of him this week against Parramatta.
If You’re Not First, You’re Last
The book enjoyed a nice little top up on First Try Scorer results across all four games last week.
Nathan Brown was by far the best result paying an almost comical $67 to score first against the Storm, with some added help from the goal post, of course.
Canberra’s Joseph Tapine wasn’t far off the mark at $34 in was arguably one of the greatest feats of strength we’ve seen this season.
Futures Forecast
There’s been plenty going on in the world of movers and firmers, particularly if you’re a fan of the Panthers or Rabbitohs.
Grand Final Winner
Penrith Panthers: $3.90 👉 $2.80
Melbourne Storm: $3.50 👉 $3.10
Sydney Roosters: $3.50 👉 $6.00
South Sydney Rabbitohs: $21.00 👉 $12.00
Don’t Tell the Misso
Parramatta and the Live Market – name a better combo.
- $10k @ $2.00 (Live Betting): Eels to Win
If you thought that was bad, check out this late contender for bad beat of the year.
- $20k @ $2:00: Penrith Panthers to Cover the Line (-2)
Mad Multis
We’ve been a little short on mad multis recently, so it was nice to see one lone punter land two absolute beauties across all four games.
- $5 (Boosted) @ $338.52: Penrith Panthers 1-12, Stephen Crichton Anytime, Josh Addo-Carr Anytime, Melbourne Storm to Win, Jack Wighton Anytime, Canberra Raiders 1-12, South Sydney Rabbitohs 1-12, Alex Johnston Anytime Try Scorer. Win = $1692.60
- $5 @ $2295.35: South Sydney Rabbitohs 13+, Alex Johnston Anytime, Ryan Papenhuyzen Anytime, Stephen Crichton Anytime, Canberra Raiders to Win, Melbourne Storm 1-12, Penrith Panthers to Win, Josh Addo-Carr Anytime, Jack Wighton Anytime, Sione Katoa Anytime, Bradman Best Anytime. Win = $11,476.75