We’re into the middle third of the NFL season and the divides between the good, average, below average and dreadful teams are starting to widen.
With 14 games on the schedule we’ve got plenty of drama set to unfold this weekend.
Hands down the best game this weekend is the rescheduled Week 4 game between the Titans and Steelers as they battle for AFC supremacy.
There’s plenty more to look forward to with some excellent divisional battles (and the NFC East games) plus Jimmy Garoppolo’s return to Gillette Stadium with the 49ers.
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For some reason the NFL’s broadcast contract must apparently include a handful of dodgy all NFC East games in primetime.
This one is as dodgy as it gets with a lot of the star power taken out of this contest through injury.
Despite a clear lack of talent, both of these sides at least earn bonus points for still battling away.
With Miles Sanders and Zach Ertz the latest Eagles to join the injury list, I can’t back them with any confidence.
At some point the Giants will win a game and this might be one of their best opportunities.
In all honesty, this is possibly the toughest game to call this week despite the fact there are two struggling teams involved.
What swings this game for me is the fact that Dallas’ offence can’t be anywhere near as bad as it was against Arizona last week.
If they get on the right page, avoid the stupid turnovers and find the end zone, Washington won’t be able to keep up with them on the scoreboard.
It’s amazing what happens when a burnt out coach gets fired, all of a sudden Julio Jones’ injured hamstring looks like it’s healed up and the entire Falcons offence kicked into gear with Raheem Morris at the helm.
Their defence also came to the party with three turnovers while allowing just 19 first downs and a meagre 32 yards on the ground.
After this clash with Detroit we will know if that was a fluke or a sign that things are looking up.
Detroit is coming off a season high 34 points against Jacksonville but it needs to come with the reminder that it was against Jacksonville.
I’m not quite ready to back Atlanta outright yet (though I’ll probably take them in a tipping competition) and the points total looks pretty much spot on too.
I’ll pair up both running backs to score touchdowns in a SGM with both offensive lines happy to clear the way for the players.
Outside of their awful showing against the Ravens, the Bengals have moved the ball quite well so far, in spite of the fact Joe Burrow has spent most of the season running for his life.
In Week 2 the Browns managed to get home 35-30 and will be eager to atone for a horror performance against Pittsburgh.
We should see plenty of points put up in this contest and in all honesty, it is just as likely the Browns go off as it is Baker Mayfield has a major meltdown dropping back to pass.
Instead of taking a side, I’ll look for value in a same game multi backing points and both starting running backs to find the end zone.
If you are basing your tip just on last week’s performances, the Texans looked a lot better in their defeat than the Packers did in theirs.
Houston’s new coach bounce took them to the verge of victory against Tennessee while the Packers couldn’t recover from a second quarter collapse against Tampa.
Truth be told, the Packers should win this game, they have looked a lot better over the course of this season and Houston just hasn’t recovered from a brutal offseason that preceded the firing of coach Bill O’Brien.
We should see plenty of points in this contest as the Packers have the firepower to get themselves home here.
We’ve had to wait three weeks for this game after the Titans COVID scare but it will be worth the wait as the AFC’s last two undefeated teams face off.
They have reached 5-0 in very different fashion with the Titans scoring whatever they need to and the Steelers relying on both sides of the ball.
Nobody has been able to slow down Derrick Henry and I’m happy to back him to continue his hot form as well as Chase Claypool from the Steelers who has scored five touchdowns in his last two games.
Considering the teams have combined for 160 points between them in their last two games this one should see plenty of points as well so there’s a strong SGM play on offer.
After their bye last week the Saints are ready to get back to action when they host division rivals Carolina on Monday (AEDT).
Historically they have had their way with the Panthers in the last few years winning six of the last seven, usually in some high scoring encounters.
In each of their last seven games the winner has scored at least 30 points and even with Michael Thomas missing another game as well as Emmanuel Sanders going on the COVID list.
Without Thomas, the Saints have looked clunky and out of rhythm on offence, yet have still scored 30 in each of their last three games so I’ll back them to win and put up some points on the Panthers.
There are only so many ways that I can preview games involving the New York Jets (who play out of New Jersey).
Buffalo might have lost two in a row but they were against the Titans and Chiefs and the Jets are not the Titans or the Chiefs… or even something that resembles a stable, competent NFL team.
Adam Gase is still the Jets coach so back the Bills by a lot.
We were all set up for this one to be the feature match Monday morning (AEDT) but it’s been moved a few hours earlier after the Raiders COVID scare.
Vegas has had a full fortnight to prepare for this game but their preparation has been upended after their offensive line was sent home after a member tested positive earlier in the week.
Jon Gruden will do everything he can to have his team ready to go but there’s only so much work a team can get in over Zoom and working out in their home gyms.
Much like last season, whatever September buzz there was about Gardner Minshew possibly being able to salvage the Jaguars has evaporated by October.
This team is no good and just what the Chargers need to break a disappointing run of results.
Currently on a four game losing streak, the Bolts went down in overtime twice and the other two games were by a touchdown or less.
I’ll even buy a couple of extra points to get a bit of extra value, the Jaguars just are not that good.
I’ll back the Chiefs at the line for one simple reason, outside of a game against the dreadful Jets, Denver cannot score.
Sure they came away with a good win (on the surface) over the Patriots last week but they didn’t score a touchdown against a team that had not practiced all week.
This is a pretty clear mismatch and there’s no need to overcomplicate what is a fairly straightforward play.
Let’s be blunt New England was not good last weekend against Denver and some of that can be put down to a lack of practice time, but it’s also a reminder that this is a different team than we are used to.
Of course there is also the voice in the back of my head saying that this is the week we see a Bill Belichick Special and they come back with a vengeance.
Injuries really took their toll on the 49ers in the last few weeks but they got back on track with a win over the Rams last week.
With a good case to be made for and against both teams, this is the game where you back whoever is the underdog, which in this case is San Francisco.
Considering this was a late swap into the feature match time slot we’ve lucked out from a punting perspective because this one should be a great game.
Arizona laid down a market not only beating Dallas but dismantling them in their own stadium.
When their offence clicks it is a thing of beauty and you could say the same for Seattle who is coming off a good second half comeback against the Vikings.
This is a very strange rivalry in that the visitors have won 11 of the last 14 games (with a 6-6 tie in 2016 as well) and head to head I have to give the edge to Seattle in this one, they are the better side and looking very good (on offence at least).
The Bears are a much better team than many people give them credit for and at 5-1 you have to start taking them seriously.
Their defence has given up 20 or fewer points in four of their games so far this season and the Rams can get bogged down from time to time.
It’s tempting to back the Bears and the under but that number looks about right for a Bears win and with the head to head market offering plenty of value I’ll take the underdog to grind out another victory.