The WTA can be unpredictable at the best of times, but Naomi Osaka has been a real pace-setter throughout this tournament.
She has dropped just 2 sets en route to the semis and I’m banking on her making the final here.
I’d like something with a bigger payout than the $1.44 moneyline, so I’m opting for Osaka -3.5 games at the handicap.
While her opponent Jennifer Brady has also looked great, I’m not sure it’s sustainable against an opponent of Osaka’s quality.
Brady narrowly got in as the #28 seed in a weakened field, meaning she wouldn’t be seeded in most years.
She does have wins over bottom-half seeds in Garcia, Kerber, and Puntintseva, but Osaka is clearly the best player remaining in the tournament.
I don’t see her getting much joy on the Osaka serve, which should put a ton of pressure on her own service games.
This one could still go the distance, but I’m fairly confident Osaka covers this line.
It’s rare that you get Serena Williams as an underdog at the US Open, yet here we are.
Serena is a fortnight away from turning 39, yet she has still advanced to a grand slam semi with relative ease.
She has faced a relatively tough road to get there, beating the likes of Stephens, Sakkari, and Pironkova last time out.
Her form has dropped off a little of late, being taken to 3 sets in each of her last 3 matches.
This could mean that fatigue is a bit of an issue after her match yesterday, but I wouldn’t say a 3-set WTA match is all that gruelling.
I think she’ll be relatively well-rested and hungry to claim what could be her last US Open crown.
Azarenka is mercurial at the best of times, and I think the consistency of Serena’s serve gets her the win here.