UFC 253: Adesanya vs Costa – Tips & Preview

Israel Adesanya vs Paulo Costa, Middleweight, Main Event
Over 2.5 Rounds $1.70

Israel Adesanya opens as the comfortable $1.55 favourite here, with Paulo Costa out at $2.45.

Adesanya enters this bout with a very impressive 19-0 record, 8 of which have come in the UFC.

He has beaten a strong list of competitors, with his last 5 wins coming against Brunson, Silva, Gastelum, Whittaker, and Romero.

Known primarily for his excellent power and striking ability, 14 of his wins have come by way of knockout.

Paulo Costa has also had an impressive start to his MMA career, entering this bout undefeated at 13-0.

He doesn’t have the same level of UFC experience as Adesanya, but has managed wins over Hendricks, Hall, and Romero.

Another excellent striker, 11 of his 13 wins have been by knockout.

These two fighters match up very well and I’m expecting a close bout here.

For that reason, I’ll steer clear of the handicap and go ‘Yes- Fight will start Round 3’ at $1.70.

There is incredibly high stakes involved and I’d expect both fighters to be somewhat conservative to start – no one wants a Jose Aldo moment.

Neither fighter is likely to take this to the ground, meaning we’d need to see an early knockout punch for this bet not to cash, which I think is unlikely.

Dominick Reyes vs Jan Blachowicz, Light Heavyweight, Co-Main
Reyes by KO/Submission $2.02

Dominick Reyes opens as the $1.36 favourite here, with Blachowicz out as the $3.20 underdog.

Reyes has emerged as a strong contender in the Light Heavyweight division, entering this bout with a 12-1 career record.

His only loss is nothing to sneeze at either, coming against arguably the GOAT in Jon Jones earlier this year.

His 7 knockouts would suggest that he is primarily a striker, but he does have decent ability on the ground for a big guy.

Blachowicz has also had an impressive career to date, entering this fight with a 26-8 career record.

He has won 7 of his last 8 fights, including a recent trio of wins over Rockhold, Souza, and Corey Anderson.

He’s the type of fighter that can win by any method, recording 7 knockouts, 9 submissions, and 10 decision wins thus far.

Considering this is a 5-round fight, I’ll go for Reyes to get the win by KO or Submission at $2.02.

Given his pedigree, I think it’s more likely than not that he gets a finish as the clear favourite.

He has a number of clear advantages here and I think he’ll be itching to avenge his loss last time out.

A knockout is probably more likely as he has a major advantage on the feet and will probably keep this one off the ground.

Kai Kara-France vs Brandon Royval, Flyweight
Kara-France by Points $1.95

Kai Kara France opens as the $1.42 favourite here, with Brandon Royval the current $2.85 outsider.

The Kiwi Kara France enters this fight with a 21-8-1 record, going 4-1 since joining the UFC.

He is a kickboxer first and foremost, registering 9 knockouts and 9 decision wins so far.

His opponent, Brandon Royval, is 10-4 for his career and has fought just once in the UFC.

That 1 UFC fight was a pretty impressive result, submitting Tim Elliott in the second round of a fight in May.

I see some value in Kara France by points here, currently on offer at $1.95.

He looks to be the better of these two fighters and should be able to outpoint Royval on the feet here.

His 9 decision wins suggest he isn’t exactly a finishing machine, and Royval has never been knocked out or submitted in his career.

This looks to be the most likely method on the board and is better value than the $1.42 outright win.