The home and away season came to a close last week and it wasn’t without its fair share of drama.
Upset losses to the Roosters and Storm cost punters right across the board, while the book also suffered a major loss on four of the eight match results.
With the 16-team competition reduced down to eight, now is the perfect time to catch up on all the trends, numbers and statistics before things get serious on Friday.
If you’re looking for an advantage, be sure to check out all you need to know in another edition of The Offload below!
Performance of the Week
Talk about a clinic.
With a 36-6 win over Newcastle, our Titans managed to finish in ninth place to close out the home-and-away season as we now look ahead to a massive 2021!
Ash Taylor got things started nice and early when he found the line just two minutes into the game – a huge collect for punters that took the juicy $26 odds in our First Try Scorer market.
Taylor went one better in the second half to score himself a double paying $15.00, only to be outdone by teammate AJ Brimson, who scored one of the tries of the season on a 95m sprint through the heart of the Newcastle defence.
Brimson scored a double for the second game in a row, a nice end to the season after the star halfback missed the first half of the year through injury.
With a big offseason of signings ahead, the Titans are without a doubt the biggest improvers to emerge from a weird and wacky season.
Don’t Argue…
Alex Johnston, obviously.
There were absolute scenes at ANZ on Friday night as the Rabbitohs winger scored not three, not four, but five tries to surpass David Nofoaluma and Kyle Feldt for the top spot on the try scorer’s list.
Johnston, who also scored the 100th try of his career, was paying $13.00 To Score a Hat-Trick, a milestone he achieved with relative ease against a drowsy Roosters defence that went to sleep late in the second half.
The South Sydney winger was paying $21.00 heading into the round to finish the season as the Top Try Scorer, which turned into a great bet for some, and a bad beat for others.
Feldt appeared home and hosed after scoring a hat-trick against the Broncos, while Nofoaluma, on the other hand, finished the season as the beaten $1.40 favourite.
Johnston’s performance was also crucial as the Rabbitohs snagged the sixth spot on the ladder.
As a result, the Bunnies are now odds-on favourites to beat the Knights in Sunday’s elimination final with home field advantage.
Punters Pals
- Kyle Feldt Anytime @ $1.80: you’re probably feeling a little crook if you took Feldt to finish the season on top of the try scorer’s list, but at least he came up with the goods in the Anytime market. Feldt had scored a try in eight of the Cowboys last nine games as a favourite, a record he added to nice and easily with a hat-trick paying $11.00.
- Gold Coast Titans @ $2.65: the home team has now won each of the last seven games between the Titans and Knights, so if you took the Gold Coast outright last week, you likely came out on top.
- Campbell Graham Anytime @ $3.30: the South Sydney winger was one of the top value plays of the round last week where he scored in his seventh consecutive game against the Roosters. PSA: don’t ever expect this kind of price again!
- Josh Mansour Anytime @ $1.70: Mansour is in prime form as he heads into the finals having now scored in each of his last six games.
- Raiders to Win @ $2.75: the market ahead of Saturday’s Sharks/Raiders game shifted significantly with Canberra choosing to rest several of its stars. That didn’t stop punters from loading up on the Green Machine however as the Raiders extended their impressive record on the road to 8-2.
- Ronaldo Mulitalo Anytime @ $1.75: Mulitalo has virtually been an ATM this season as he once again found the line against the Raiders. If you’ve been keeping count, the Sharks star winger has now scored in each of his last four games.
- The Over on Sharks Games: this has quietly been one of the best plays of the season. Saturday’s Points Total against the Raiders was set at 44.5, something the two sides met with ease as they combined for 66 points. The Total has now gone Over in 15 of Cronulla’s 18 games.
- Wests Tigers +5.5: the Tigers put up a brave fight on Saturday night in their four point loss to the Eels. Parramatta has failed to cover the line eight of their last nine matches, so keep this one in your back pocket heading into the finals.
Don’t Forget About…
Adam Keighran.
It’s been a rough year for the Warriors, but they managed to end things on a high note with a 40-28 win over Manly on Sunday.
Five-eighth Adam Keighran, who was playing just his third game of the season, was the star of the show scoring his first career hat-trick paying $19.00.
The 23-year-old scored on debut for the Warriors last year but has spent most of 2020 on the sidelines with a knee injury.
After winning five of their last 10 games, Keighran figures to play a major part in New Zealand’s 2021 campaign.
If You’re Not First, You’re Last
The book suffered only one loss on First Try Scorer results last week thanks to Josh crossing the line nice and early for the Roosters paying $11.00.
Payne Haas, meanwhile, was the top result for not only the book, but also punters paying a whopping $34 against the Cowboys, right before Dunamis Lui took things up a level at $41 against the Sharks.
Futures Forecast
You can’t lose 60-8 to the Rabbitohs and not expect a few repercussions.
The Roosters have drifted from $3.00 out to $3.70 in our NRL Premiership market following Friday’s meltdown, while the Storm remain the favourites at $3.50 despite losing to the Dragons.
Penrith are sandwiched in the middle at $3.65 and appear enormous value after shutting out the Bulldogs 42-0 last week.
South Sydney, on the other hand, have moved significantly in from $51 to $19 after a statement win over the reigning premiers.
Don’t Tell the Misso
A couple of short-priced favourites cost a couple of punters the mortgage last week.
- $100k @ $2.00: Roosters to Cover the Line (-9.5)
- $20k @ $2.00: Eels to Cover the Line (-8.5)
Bloody Good Bets
But of course, it wasn’t all bad.
The Panthers have been the best team to bet on at the line all season, as one punter found out the easy way in Saturday’s win over the Dogs.
- $34k @ $2.00: Panthers to Cover the Line (-18.5)
It’s been tough to find confidence in those other two teams in Queensland, but one that didn’t stop one bloke from loading up on the Cowboys against the hapless Broncos.
- $100k @ $2.00: Cowboys to Cover the Line (-4.5)