Aside from a Thursday night upset between the Rabbitohs and Bulldogs, just about everything went according to plan during Round 19.
The Panthers won their 14th consecutive game to secure the minor premiership, while the Storm, Roosters and Raiders all recorded double digit victories with only a week to play before finals.
Canterbury’s win has added some real spice to the wooden spoon race with the Dogs and Broncos now tied on points, setting up a very interesting final round of the season.
If you’re looking for a winning edge before the pointy end of the season, we’ve got you covered with all the numbers, trends and figures in the Round 19 edition of The Offload below.
Performance of the Week
No brainer… the Neds Gold Coast Titans.
Punters that took the $2.65 about our boys in blue enjoyed an absolute fill-up as the Titans cruised to their eighth win of the season in a 42-24 win over Manly at Brookvale.
Alex Brimson, who has seemingly gone to another level since his return from injury, was the star of the show scoring his second double of the season at $7.00.
Not to be outdone, Young Tonumaipea added a double of his own for good measure scoring back-to-back tries in the first half paying $11.00.
The Titans now have a chance to finish the season in ninth if they beat the Knights on Friday, or if the Tigers lose to the Eels.
It may not be finals, but this is still a huge step in the right direction for the club as they gear towards a big free agency period during the offseason.
Don’t Argue…
With Josh Addo-Carr.
The Storm hammered the Tigers 50-22 on Saturday thanks to a double from the ‘Foxx’ paying $7.00.
Addo-Carr has been money in Try Scorer markets since the dawn of time, but he continues to play his best footy up in Queensland – a worrying sign for the Maroons if he’s named to the NSW Origin side.
Saturday’s two try performance marked Addo-Carr’s fifth double of the season, but also his fifth in the Storm’s last seven games played in the Sunshine State.
He now finds himself only two off David Nofoaluma on the top try scorer’s list, setting up a nail-biting finish with the Storm facing the Dragons on Sunday.
Punters Pals
- Bulldogs at the Line (+17.5) @ $2.00: each of the last nine teams that have played Manly have covered the line in their next match, so good work if you backed the Bulldogs to cover Thursday’s monster line against the Bunnies.
- Campbell Graham Anytime @ $1.80: plenty of multis on the Dogs/Souths game fell over on Thursday, but Graham still gave punters a big check mark scoring in his sixth consecutive game.
- Kyle Feldt Anytime @ $2.75: Feldt has been an almost guaranteed certainty in Cowboys home games this year. He’s now scored in 15 of North Queensland’s last 18 home games after finding the line in the second half last week against Penrith.
- Josh Mansour Anytime @ $1.80: the odds weren’t great, but what else do you expect from a guy that has now scored in each of Penrith’s last five games?
- AJ Brimson Anytime @ $2.30: we touched on AJ earlier, but his form against Manly is also worth a mention. Brimson has now scored in each of his last three appearances against the Sea Eagles at Brookvale.
- Jack Gosiewski First Try Scorer @ $19.00: this was a huge collect for punters that had the foresight to back the Manly second-rower after scoring in four of his previous five games.
- Roosters to Cover the Line (-16) @ $2.00: bit of a nervous one on Saturday, but the Roosters have now covered in each of their last five games against the Sharks.
- Jahrome Hughes Anytime @ $3.00: Hughes’ record in Queensland isn’t quite as impressive as Addo-Carr’s, but he has scored in six of his last 11 games up north after finding the line on Saturday against the Tigers.
- Peta Hiku Anytime @ $3.00: there was plenty to like about the Warriors during the first half on Sunday, particularly if you backed Peta Hiku Anytime, or to score a double @ $10.00. If you’ve been keeping count, you’ll know the big man has now scored in five of his last six games against Canberra.
Don’t Forget About…
Enari Tuala.
The Knights moved one step closer to securing home field advantage in the elimination final with a 41-18 beatdown over the Dragons on Sunday.
Twenty-one-year-old centre Enari Tuala contributed massively on the scoreboard scoring his third double of the season at a very cool $6.50 quote.
Tuala has now scored 11 tries on the season and looks to be a real threat through the middle as the Knights return to full strength ahead of the postseason.
If You’re Not First, You’re Last
The book saw a profit on seven of the eight first try scorer’s last week, with the only loss coming on Kalyn Ponga paying $8.50 against the Dragons.
It was also another handy week for punters that backed our First Try Scorer 6-Pack’s.
Four of our eight ‘Favourites Packs’ got up thanks to Brian To’o, Blake Ferguson, Suliasi Vunivalu and Peta Hiku!
Futures Forecast
We haven’t seen a great deal of fluctuation in the futures market, but there are a few notable to address heading into the final round of the home/away season.
The Roosters are now the outright favourites to three-peat, firming from $3.00 into $2.90.
The Panthers, meanwhile, have drifted from $3.50 out to $4.10 despite securing the minor premiership last week.
Lastly, Parramatta continues to fade all the way from $13.00 last week out to $26.00.
Don’t Tell the Misso
We’ve got a new contender for one of the worst live bets in the history of mankind.
One bloke decided to have the mortgage on the Bunnies on Thursday night, only to come away with a big fat zero.
- $80k @ $1.28 (Live Betting): Rabbitohs to Win
One punter tried to match the above bet on Saturday with the following train wreck.
- $80k @ $1.53: Manly to Win
And finally, the trifecta.
- $100k @ $2:00: Raiders to Cover the Line (-15.5)
Bloody Good Bets
With the bad comes the good, so hats off to these few that managed to score in a big way!
- $50k @ $1.30: Panthers to Cover the Line (-5.5)
- $50k @ $1.16: Eels to Cover the Line (-4.5)
- $50k @ $1.20 (Live Betting): Titans to Win