The Top 8 is just about set as we look back on a thrilling Round 17.
Newcastle are headed to the finals for the first time since 2013 after pummeling the Sharks on Friday, leaving the Tigers and the Warriors a very slim window of opportunity to sneak back inside the eight.
The book suffered only three losses across the entire round, with the biggest coming on Friday night following Melbourne’s come-from-behind victory over the Bunnies.
We also have a three-way tie in the Premiership market as well as a major move for the wooden spoon.
If you’re trying to catch up on a massive weekend of results, we’ve got you covered in another huge edition of The Offload below.
Performance of the Week
Our Wests Tigers kept their season alive by the barest of margins on Saturday night with a 34-32 win over Manly at Brookvale.
David Nofoaluma was the star of the show scoring a hat-trick of tries, which came through at big value for punters that took the $13.00 odds on offer.
Adam Doueihi also chipped in with a double paying $9.00 – the second of which sealed the deal in the 77th minute. The Tigers were outstanding value straight-up paying $2.50 early in the week, and it appears a few savvy Neds nuffies saw the upset coming with the price firming into $1.85 prior to kickoff.
The win was worth celebrating, but the Tigers to do have plenty of work to do with three rounds remaining.
Wests face the Rabbitohs, Storm and Eels to close out the home/away season and can be found at $21.00 to make the Top 8 in our market.
Don’t Argue…
With Kalyn Ponga.
There’s really only one way to respond to a sickening shoulder charge, and that’s by scoring your first career hat-trick.
The Newcastle fullback was at his very best on Friday night as the Knights throttled the Sharks 38-10 at McDonald Jones.
Ponga was paying a very cool $14.00 To Score a Hat-Trick, which he went about with ease against an ill-disciplined Sharks defence that seemed more intent on inflicting pain.
The 22-year-old was well overdue for a big performance and it couldn’t have come at a better time with the Knights on the verge of securing a finals spot.
Punters Pals
- Kotoni Staggs Anytime @ $3.60: we’ve beaten this drum all season, so if you haven’t cashed in on Staggs, you only have yourself to blame. The Broncos’ star center has now scored in eight of his last 11 games after finding the line nice and early against the Panthers last Thursday night.
- The Over on the Sharks: Newcastle and Cronulla combined for 48 points on Friday night in a high-scoring blowout. As a result, the Total has now gone Over in each of the Sharks’ last 10 away games, so keep this one in mind when Cronulla takes on the Roosters in a fortnight’s time.
- Ryan Papenhuyzen Anytime @ $2.75: we seem to have another Friday night superstar on our hands! Papz has now scored a try in seven of his last 10 games played on a Friday night after finding the line early against the Bunnies last week.
- Newcastle to Win the 1st Half: the Knights are tough to beat at home, so this one should come as no surprise. Newcastle has now won the first half in 12 of their last 15 games at home after scoring four tries against the Sharks on Friday.
- Campbell Graham Anytime @ $3.50: ICYMI, the 21-year-old has now scored a try in each of his last four games to sit tied for 15th on the season’s Top Try Scorer’s list. Graham was enormous against the Storm last week and looks to be a very profitable betting play for years to come.
- Gold Coast Titans @ $1.75: here’s one to jot down for next season – the away team has now won each of the last four games between the Bulldogs and Titans!
- Kieran Foran Anytime @ $4.50: the Bulldogs’ five-eighth found the line just after half-time on Saturday, and if you’ve paid attention to the trends, you would have seen it coming. Foran has now scored in four of his last six games against the Titans.
- New Zealand Warriors (+10.5): the Warriors have turned into such an exciting team over the last few weeks and they did not disappoint in Sunday’s six-point loss to the Eels. If you’ve been keeping count, the Kiwis have now covered in each of their last seven games.
- Kyle Feldt Anytime @ $2.05: Backing Feldt when the Cowboys play at home continues to bring in the money, as we saw on Sunday when he crossed the line in the 66th minute. For those keeping count, Feldt has now scored in 14 of the Cowboys’ last 18 games.
- Blake Ferguson Anytime @ $2.25: Fergo had scored a try in five of his eight games against the Warriors heading into Sunday, so he was great value at the above quote to finally get one on the board!
- Valentine Holmes Anytime @ $2.40: safe to say the Big V likes playing on Sunday – he’s now scored in each of his last 10 appearances after scoring a crucial try in the second half against the Dragons.
Don’t Forget About…
James Tedesco.
Teddy scored a double paying $7.50 against the Raiders on Saturday night in a repeat performance of last year’s Grand Final.
The Roosters still face a bit of a fight if they wish to remain inside the top four, especially with the Knights, Sharks and Rabbitohs ahead on the schedule.
A win over the fifth-place Raiders leaves them in firm control of their own destiny though, and they have to be happy with their star fullback’s return to form.
If You’re Not First, You’re Last
The book suffered three losses over the weekend on First Try Scorer results with the biggest coming nice and early when Kotoni Staggs scored against the Panthers paying $19.00.
Staggs also got our First Try Scorer 6-Pack’s off to a nice start as Ronaldo Mulitalo, Corey Thompson and Maika Sivo followed suit across the rest of the weekend!
Mr. Irrelevant
It was a fairly quiet night on the home front for the Raiders in their Grand Final rematch against the Roosters on Saturday.
Nick Cotric definitely made an impact on the game, but he still left a few punters with an ‘X’ in their multis after failing to deliver as a $2.50 Anytime Try Scorer.
Meanwhile, at shorter odds, Stephen Crichton left a few footy fans empty handed on Thursday night against the Broncos.
The Panthers’ center was the $1.65 favourite in our Anytime market, only to come up well short with just 73m next to his name.
Futures Forecast
The top three in our NRL Premiership market remains unchanged with the Storm, Panthers and Roosters all sharing favouritism at $3.75.
Down further, the Raiders have drifted slightly out to $12.00 following their loss to the Chooks, while the Sharks are now $34.00 out to $67.00 thanks to their blowout loss to the Knights.
Our ‘Top 8’ market has also seen some minor adjustments.
The Warriors are $21.00 into $15.00 despite losing to the Eels, while the Tigers have firmed from $26.00 into $21.00.
Lastly (and most importantly), the wooden spoon.
The Dogs are now odds-on $1.36 favourites after losing to the Titans with the Broncos back out to $3.10.
Bloody Good Bets
The big bets were far and few between last week, but we did see a few high-rollers cash-in at the line (just for a change).
- $15k @ $2.00 (Live Market): Brisbane Broncos (+18.5)
- $50k @ $1.50: Melbourne Storm to Win
- $25k @ $2.20: Wests Tigers to Win
- $25k @ $1.50: Sydney Roosters to Win
Don’t Tell the Misso
Imagine backing the Dragons with any kind of confidence.
Whoever you are, welcome to the long list of blokes that have lost a chunk of coin on the Saints this season.
- $17k @ $1.60: Dragons to Win
Equally as bad was this ambitious bet on the Raiders against the reigning premiers.
- $10k @ $3.00: Raiders to Win
And finally, the be-all and end-all of terrible line bets.
- $60k @ $1.90 (Live Market): Rabbitohs (-3.5)