Saturday, September 19

Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago White Sox, 9:10 am
White Sox $1.92

A lot of teams are playing twice today, making the handicaps that little bit more difficult.

I see some value in Chicago here, at essentially even money on the road against Cincy.

The White Sox have been the best side in the American League this season, sitting atop the Conference with a 33-17 record.

They’ve got a very impressive run differential of +80, which is significantly better than anyone else in the conference.

It’s not that Cincinnati are a bad team, but I view them as more of a middle-of-the-road side.

They’re just 25-26 in the middle of the National League, with a -15 run difference.

This is after they were able to beat up on a lowly Pittsburgh side, which looks to have inflated their numbers.

Overall, I think Chicago has the much better batting lineup and this is a relatively even pitching matchup.

They should be around $1.75 here, so I’ll take the extra line value on offer.

Houston Astros vs Arizona Diamondbacks, 10:10 am
Astros $1.60

Arizona have had a very disappointing 2020 season and appear to be all but eliminated from the playoffs.

Houston have underwhelmed this season, but they’re still right in the mix and should get the job done here.

Their record is 6.5 games better than the Diamondbacks and they also have a better run difference by 57 runs, which is indicative of the gulf in quality.

I think the pitching matchup is also favourable for them here, with ace Zack Greinke taking on his former side.

Zac Gallen has underwhelmed for Arizona this season and the strong Houston batting lineup should prove too much for him.

A sweep in this series would give the Astros a great chance to make the playoffs in this expanded post-season and I think they start on the right note here.