I’m opting for a 4-leg multi here, paying out fairly healthy $2.23 odds.
We start off with Felix Auger Aliassime, who is a $1.25 favourite against Nishioka.
FAA is comfortably the better of these two players and should have the edge on clay court, where he made two SATP Finals last year.
The 2nd leg is Dominic Thiem, paying out $1.11 against Cilic.
This is a very tricky first round matchup for Thiem, but he’s probably the 2nd best clay courter on tour right now.
I expect him to make some inroads on the Cilic serve given the conditions and he helps add some decent value to our finish price.
Fresh off of a very strong performance in the US Open, Carreno-Busta looks like good value to get past Aussie John Millman at $1.29.
We round out with Medvedev at $1.25, who definitely had his chances to win the US Open last time out.
Clay isn’t his preferred surface, but his talent should win out against Fucsovics at that price.
I’m going to opt for a handicap play here, taking Fognini -1.5 sets against Mikhail Kukushkin.
Fognini has established himself as a very competent clay court player, winning 66% of his career matches at the French Open.
He has also done very well at clay court Masters 1000 events, particularly compared to his hard-court results.
His opponent, Mikhail Kukushkin, is a bit of a journeyman that has proven to be more comfortable on faster courts throughout his career.
He is .500 in single’s matches for his career at Wimbledon and the US Open, but has gone just 4-8 at Roland Garros.
Kukushkin hasn’t been particularly great of late either, losing to Aussie Jordan Thompson at the US Open and falling in qualifiers in the lead-up event.
Fognini is the better player here with a strong edge on hard court and the lack of fans means he can just focus on his tennis.
Considering his straight-up win price, I think $1.67 for -1.5 sets is strong value.