I’m going heavy on the exotics in this one, taking Eric Gordon to make more 3’s than Danny Green at $1.80.
Green has been on a marked decline over the past two seasons, largely due to his reduced ability to make the 3-point shot.
He’s shooting just 34% from 3 in these playoffs, slightly up from an even worse mark during the seeding games.
He also isn’t getting that many minutes, only averaging 27 per game for the post-season.
Eric Gordon is not only attempting more 3’s than Green, he’s also making them at a better rate and playing more minutes.
He’s averaged 35 minutes per game during this series, a number which could increase given Houston’s thin rotation.
He is taking 8.7 3’s per game this series, making an average of 3.7 for 40% from deep.
I think he plays more minutes than Green here and gets at least a few more attempts, making him odds on to hit more 3’s.
I’m opting for another head to head bet here, taking James Harden to have more assists than Rondo at $2.
Rondo has his first good game over the last two years and all of a sudden people think he’s Steph Curry.
He’s still working his way back into shape after injury and is yet to eclipse 30 minutes in this series.
Compare that to Harden, who should play around 40 minutes here in what is a critical must-win game for Houston.
He has the ball in his hands on almost every possession and is averaging over 7.5 assists for both the regular and postseason.
I think he’s on course for around 7-9 assists here, which would be tough for Rondo to beat in ~25 minutes.