This is a pure line value play, where I’m taking Texas as $2.65 home underdogs.
I’m not sure the Angels should be $1.50 road favourites against anyone right now and would expect a close one here.
Both sides have an equal number of losses this season, with Texas 2 wins behind LA having played 2 less games.
Texas have started this series relatively well, winning both games by a combined score of 14-4.
They have a disadvantage with the pitching matchup today, with Kyle Gibson taking on Dylan Bundy from LA.
The rest of the team matches up relatively evenly with LA and I don’t think the pitching is worth such a significant line move.
I was against Miami yesterday and they got absolutely slaughtered by Atlanta 29-9.
I’m not expecting it to be by the same margin, but I like the look of Philly here as narrow $1.88 road favourites.
The Phillies have been in the midst of a solid recent run, sitting 5th in the NL overall at 21-18.
They are currently 2.5 games ahead of Miami in the standings and have an advantage of 16 runs in run differential.
I’d mark them as clearly the better team here, especially with Miami not having a strong home field advantage.
Sandy Alcantara has had a decent season for Miami, but I think the Phillies strong lineup has an advantage there.
If Jake Arrieta can break out of his recent slump, the Phillies look strong value to take this win.