Despite all the interruptions, forks in the road, scandals, rescheduling, hubs, no crowds, some crowds and then some we’ve actually reached the final round of the 2020 AFL home and away season.
This is a phenomenal achievement within itself.
Top 4 and Top 8 spots are on the line and even in the dead rubbers, there’s plenty of pride at stake.
The last round of any home and away season always dishes up a few surprises and our never-ending quest to find winners and value continues in our tips and preview of Round 18.
We wouldn’t say this game kicks off Round 18, it’s more a curtain raiser before the proper games on the weekend starts.
It’s basically a win-win outcome for the West Coast Eagles.
Win – which they will, they will book a place in the top four, for the time being.
They’ll need to make sure the Crows beat the Tigers and the Swans beat the Cats in order to remain in the top four, however, they won’t play in Perth.
Every team wants the double chance when it comes to finals, but the only way they’ll grace the turf of non-Grand Final hosting Optus Stadium is to finish fifth so they can play within WA’s strict quarantine rules.
They go in at Winx-like odds in the head to head markets for this game against North whose 2020 season couldn’t end soon enough and are basically a case of writing your own ticket.
The Kangaroos have lost their last seven on the trot and went down to Freo by 10 goals.
West Coast will have significant outs but I’m not expecting some sort of “miracle to end the season on high note” performance from the Kangaroos.
If there’s one thing to factor in is that the Eagles don’t have the best record at Metricon Stadium having only won one out of their five matches at the venue this season but you’d expect them to make it two from six by the end of Thursday night.
Eagles by plenty and the 40+ margin is good value.
We are set for an absolute beauty this Friday night at the Gabba.
For the Saints and Giants, it’s a case of win it and you’re in… the final eight that is.
If it were up to me (and a fair few others), St Kilda is the team that deserves to play finals this year.
They have been far more competitive, shown they can play great footy and the club making their first finals series since 2011 would be a phenomenal achievement.
Having said that, the Saints have blown some golden opportunities in the past month or so to seal the deal for their place in the finals with close losses to West Coast, Melbourne and the Brisbane Lions (with a 14 point win over Hawthorn along the way)
St Kilda simply just win and they are in.
GWS couldn’t be any more disappointing this season.
For a team that allegedly has “the best list in the AFL” and has been dubbed the Ferrari, they sometimes have all the attitude of the salesmen of the used car that once belonged to the little old lady that only took it to the shops and church on a Sunday.
Should they get up on Friday night they’ll still need to rely on the Western Bulldogs and Melbourne to lose.
How anyone can trust the Giants to win is beyond me and even if they do make the finals, they’ll be a waste of space.
Having said that, I expect this game to be close and expecting it to go down to the wire.
I’ll take either by 15.5 or under in the tri bet market in this one.
After being postponed way back in Round 4, Essendon finally gets to play Melbourne at the radical time of 2:10 on a Saturday afternoon.
Melbourne fans have spent a fair chunk of time feverishly working on the AFL ladder predictor along with contemplating all the coulda, shoulda and woulda’s about this season, previous seasons and results beyond their hands that are in play this round.
Even if the Dees win, they could still find themselves finishing 9th on the ladder and missing finals.
Given the lockdown restrictions that a fair majority of their members are currently facing, you’d hope the club hasn’t sent out finals tickets information in the mail.
Essendon are a rabble.
Season 2020 couldn’t end soon enough and this once proud Football Club needs to do some serious soul-searching as has been the case for the past 16 or so years.
This will be John Worsfold’s last game as coach of the club before Ben Rutton takes over in 2021.
Woosha hasn’t been afraid to let people know what he thinks about the club and you can’t see the Dons sending him out on a high note.
Melbourne will win this, but when it comes to featuring in the finals everything still remains up in the air regardless of the result and they’ll only have themselves to blame.
The Crows are having a September to remember and face a rampaging Richmond in a final round showdown to decide things once and for all.
Sound familiar?
It shouldn’t.
This isn’t 2017.
Adelaide is playing to avoid “winning” the club’s first Wooden Spoon and Richmond are playing to secure a top-four spot for the fourth consecutive year while pursuing a third flag in four seasons.
It has been great to see the Adelaide Crows get some much-needed confidence and wins over the past few weeks.
They are very much a different team to what they have been for the majority of the season, playing great footy and will go into 2021 with plenty of confidence.
Beating the likes of Hawthorn, GWS and the Blues is one thing – playing Richmond is another.
The Tigers couldn’t have been more impressive in their 26 point victory over the Cats last week.
There are some injuries, but this Tiger outfit bats very deep and with far more to play for than just pride – they’ll get the job done in this one.
For the second year in a row, the mighty Brisbane Lions (proudly sponsored by Neds) can secure a top two spot on the ladder and potentially finish on top with a big win over the Blues.
This is also the second year of Neds being a proud sponsor of the Lions.
Coincidence? We think not.
Goal kicking remains somewhat of a concern, but some late free flowing and direct kicking football in the last quarter of the Lions win over the Swans last week (bloody radical concept I know) got the job done as Brisbane cruised home to a 45 point win.
A real highlight from last week was Keidean “Kiddy” Coleman kicking his first goal of his career.
There’s something that just sounds right about Coleman kicking goals.
Locking in two home finals at the Gabba is going to be awesome and the prospect of the Lions winning the cup on their home deck is quite the delightful prospect.
They’ll want to get into some decent winning form over the Blues, who made sure they wouldn’t feature in this year’s finals with a loss over the Crows last weekend.
Brisbane is yet to lose at the Gabba this season and they ain’t dropping it against Carlton.
Perhaps this will be the game where the Lions kicking woes come to an end with an absolute demolition over the Bluebaggers along with a big statement that they mean business just in time for the finals.
Everyone’s second favourite team of 2020, the Gold Coast Suns travel to Adelaide to face the club most are delighted to have seen better days – Clarko’s Hawks.
For the Suns, they can finish a promising 2020 campaign on a high note.
They’ve hardly been easybeats and the likes of Matt Rowell who was sidelined from an injury in Round 5 and Isac Rankine have given footy fans and punters plenty of excitement.
After plenty of false dawns, the Suns have a bright future. They mean it this time.
Hawthorn is currently on a seven-game losing streak and is a sorry sight.
They’ll want to send off premiership players Paul Puopolo and Ben Stratton with a win.
The two have been fine servants to the brown and gold and Hawthorn is a proud club, you’d expect them to put up a fight in their final 2020 hit out.
Having said that, the Gold Coast Suns despite losing four out of their past five have been in far better form than Hawthorn.
This game will be close and picking the winner is a toss of a coin, however, I expect the Suns to finish 2020 with a win and plenty of confidence going into next year.
Unfortunately for the Sydney Swans, they face Geelong on the rebound after a 26 point loss to the Tigers last weekend.
Sydney has proven to be a nuisance against top-performing teams this year and has performed pretty well for a side that is 15th on the ladder.
Geelong will want to use this game to remind everyone they mean business and there’s no doubting the Tomahawk will want to get back to kicking bags after he was well held by Tiger Noah Balta last Friday night.
All the markets point to a convincing Geelong win this Sunday at Metricon.
While the Swans can be competitive, there’s too much on the line for the Cats and they should win and do it convincingly in this one.
All the Western Bulldogs need to do is win and they book their place in the finals.
It’s a pretty simple equation.
However, they are playing Fremantle who have turned out to be one of the more in form teams towards the end of the home and away season.
The Dockers won’t play finals but win or lose, they’ll finish season 2020 with plenty of confidence going into next year.
In the past three weeks, Freo has belted North, stunned Melbourne and gave Richmond a decent scare.
Freo is the kind of team that can beat anyone on their day.
That being said, there’s too much for the Western Bulldogs to play for.
They’ve developed a bit of a Jekyll and Hyde reputation this season but recent performances have them favourites in this contest.
The conditions of Cairns is also a factor in this contest.
I do think the Western Bulldogs will get the job done in this game.
I’ve searched for a bit of value in this contest and found some value in the margin markets, with the Dogs to win 1-19 points at $2.70.
The final match of the 2020 home and away season should be a beauty as the Magpies play the club that would ideally be called the Magpies at the Gabba this Monday night.
Port Adelaide can secure the Dr McClelland Trophy (the minor premiership for those of you playing at home) and the prospect of two home finals at Adelaide Oval with a win over Collingwood this Monday night.
In typical AFL fixturing fashion, Collingwood is playing their sixth consecutive game at the G…abba and have gotten to know the venue of this year’s Grand Final pretty well.
They managed to get the job done against the Gold Coast Suns last Monday night but it was far from a dominant performance.
This game will be a proper finals preview and hopefully it lives up to its reputation.
Having said that, with the line being set at -7.5 to Port Adelaide, I’d expect the Power to cover it.