UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs Sakai – Tips & Preview

Alistair Overeem vs Augusto Sakai, Heavyweight, Main Event
Sakai to Win $2.55

Overeem opens as the relatively comfortable $1.52 favourite here, with Sakai currently out at $2.55.

The Dutchman has had a storied MMA career, entering this fight with a 46-18 career record.

He has fought professionally since before the turn of the millennium, going 12-7 since joining the UFC in 2011.

Known predominantly for his elite finishing ability, he has 24 knockouts and 17 submissions to his name thus far.

Sakai is less heralded than his opponent, but he enters this bout with an impressive 15-1-1 career record.

He has won each of his last 6 pro fights, 5 of which were in the UFC and 4 of which were by KO.

Known for being an excellent striker, 11 of his career wins have come by knockout.

Overall, I don’t mind Sakai here at reasonable $2.55 odds.

Overeem has proven to have a relatively weak chin and I can see Sakai’s power dropping him early.

He has the edge if this fight goes to the ground, but Sakai’s speed and takedown defense have looked good so far.

This is essentially a pure value play on the underdog, with the KO method of victory likely to offer even better value.

Ricky Simon vs Brian Kelleher, Featherweight
Simon by Decision

This isn’t the official co-main, but I view this fight as comfortably the most interesting fight outside of the main event.

Ricky Simon opens as a strong $1.45 favourite here, with Brian Kelleher out at $2.75.

Simon has had an excellent career to date, entering this contest with a 16-3 career record.

He did suffer a slight dip in form in 2019, but rebounded in May with a split decision win over Ray Borg in his most recent bout.

Kelleher is a true veteran of the sport, entering this fight with a 21-11 career record.

His form has also dipped of late, losing 3 of his last 5 UFC fights.

An excellent finisher at the Featherweight level, he has 8 knockouts and 9 submissions to his name thus far.

I think Simon is the better of these two fighters and he enjoys some big matchup advantages here.

He is the better of these two strikers and I think he has every chance of out-pointing Kelleher.

A decision is his most likely method of victory, which should provide a bit better value than the outright win at $1.45.