I’m opting for a total play in this one, going under the current total of 223 points.
I think both sides have fairly good defensive matchups here, something that isn’t reflected in the current line.
Miami don’t exactly have the best offense and they’re coming up against a buzz saw in the form of Milwaukee here.
Jimmy Butler just isn’t the same offensive player he used to be, shooting an atrocious 24% from 3.
I expect the Bucks to give a ton of open looks to the likes of Butler, Crowder, and Iguodala, but I don’t see them making these at a reliable clip.
On the flipside, the Heat are an excellent defensive side and I think they can contain the Bucks offense here.
Milwaukee are heavily reliant on Giannis to generate essentially everything and Miami have several capable bodies to put on him.
This puts pressure on some of Milwaukee’s secondary offensive players, who haven’t delivered throughout the bubble.
223 points is an above average total even in the modern NBA and I don’t see what the two sides have done to warrant such a high total.
I’m expecting a rock fight here and for most games in this series, with a strong lean towards under 223 points.