Tuesday, August 11

OKC Thunder vs Phoenix Suns, 4:40 am
Thunder +5

Given the amount of injuries and uncertainty going through the bubble right now, it’s very tough to find decent plays.

From a purely line value perspective, I’m going to take OKC +5 points.

The early majority of the action has been on Phoenix so far and I can see this line going up further before tip-off.

While the Suns have played well since the bubble commenced, market perception has drastically shifted in the last week.

They were 9 point underdogs against the Clippers a week ago and now they’re 5 point favourites against OKC here.

The Thunder are objectively the better team and I think the Suns have been playing over their heads of late.

OKC are admittedly on a back-to-back and do have some injury concerns, although I’d expect Steven Adams to play here.

As good as they’ve been, Phoenix are still fairly likely to miss the playoffs and motivation could wane down the stretch. They’re also on the front end of a B2B, which could impact how they approach this one.

Overall, I’m taking the better team through the key number of 5.

Indiana Pacers vs Miami Heat, 10:10 am
Pacers +2.5

This looms as the most important game of the day, one which I’d imagine both sides really want to win.

Indiana have been very impressive since the start of the seeding games and finally have their starting backcourt healthy.

Miami have had a few injury concerns of their own and will be working their way back to fitness here.

Jimmy Butler and Goran Dragic are both slated to play, but are unlikely to be at full capacity after missing multiple games.

I’d also expect Kendrick Nunn to miss this one for the Heat, having only returned to the bubble on Sunday.

This leaves Miami rather short of offensive playmakers, meaning they could struggle against an improved Indiana defense.

While TJ Warren is questionable for Indiana, I don’t see any way he sits out here considering his form and history against Miami.

The Pacers should also be fairly motivated here to win and climb into the top 4, all but ensuring they avoid Philly in round 1.

I’d expect them to win this outright if Warren plays, but 2.5 points is solid insurance at this price.