The Offload: NRL Round 16 Recap

Several teams managed to buck the trend last week in the NRL, much to the chagrin of punters who love a favourite.

The underdogs came through early on Thursday night as the Rabbitohs made short work of the Eels, followed by the Titans and Warriors, who each picked up a win to make things very interesting with four rounds remaining.   

As a result, the book enjoyed one of its most profitable weeks to date with wins across six of the eight games, while the futures market has also received a bit of a tidy up.

If you’re eager to learn more about Round 16’s biggest winners and losers, be sure to read the latest instalment of The Offload below!

Performance of the Week

The Bunnies get the nod for the second week in a row.

Just about everyone, including the bookies, had written Souths off on Thursday night against the Eels with top tryscorer Alex Johnston absent, but that still didn’t stop Wayne Bennett’s squad from piling on 38 unanswered points.

South Sydney were paying $8.00 to win by 13+ in what was obviously a great upset result for the book.

Corey Allan was also a good collect for punters that backed him at $13 in our First Try Scorer market, while Campbell Graham scored a double for the second week in a row paying $11.00.

The win leaves the Bunnies firmly on the heels of the Roosters and the Raiders for a spot in the top four, while they’ve also firmed from $21 into $17 to win the Premiership despite Latrell Mitchell’s season-ending injury.

Don’t Argue…

With the Neds Gold Coast Titans.

The first half was a forgettable one, but our boys really lifted to spoil the Dragons’ finals hopes with a narrow 14-10 victory at Jubilee.

Phillip Sami got the comeback started in the second half paying $2.40, right before the Titans shifted up a gear with 10 minutes remaining.

Tyrone Peachey picked a great time to score his first try of the season at juicy $4.50 odds, followed by Jamal Fogarty, who crossed the line at a similar price to seal the deal with only four minutes remaining.

Our bookies have now removed the Titans from our ‘Most Losses’ market with games against the Dogs and the Broncos over the next fortnight, so it’s safe to say the wooden spoon has been put back in the draw.

If you fancy the Titans to win next week against Canterbury, be sure to get on nice and early – Gold Coast are currently paying $1.95!

Punters Pals

  • Kotoni Staggs Anytime ($3.30): Staggs has scored in back-to-back games now, which is about the only positive you can draw from Brisbane’s performance against the Roosters last week.
  • Phillip Sami Anytime ($4.50): the boy from Ipswich has been absolute money over the last month scoring a try in each of his last four games. Sami scored a try against the Bulldogs back in 2018, so be sure to include him in your multi on Saturday.
  • Kyle Feldt to Score 2 or More Tries ($7.00): it was great to see Feldt back on the score sheet after a couple of quiet games against the Rabbitohs and Knights. Feldt was paying $2.30 to score Anytime, but the real money was on Feldt to score his fourth double of the season.
  • Cody Walker Anytime ($3.60): we’re not sure why, but Walker seems to save his best footy for Thursday night. The South Sydney five-eighth has now scored in six of his last eight games played on a Thursday night.
  • Josh Addo-Carr to Score 2 or More Tries ($3.40): Addo-Carr to score a try in Queensland? Money for jam. The Foxx has now scored two tries in four of his last five games played in the Sunshine State after demolishing the Sea Eagles on Sunday.
  • Justin Olam to Score a Hat-Trick ($17.00): the big man from PNG was absolutely enormous against Manly on Sunday scoring his first career hat-trick. Olam’s huge performance couldn’t have come at a better time with Marion Seve and Nelson Asofa-Solomona both suffering injuries.
  • South Sydney at the Line (+6.5): the Rabbitohs have also turned into a pretty handy bet at Bankwest Stadium. Souths have now covered in five of their last six games following Thursday’s shutout win.

Don’t Forget About…

The Warriors.

New Zealand have really made life interesting below the line as they find themselves sitting ninth on the ladder following Saturday’s huge win over the Knights.

The Warriors completely destroyed Newcastle out wide in their comprehensive 36-6 victory, which also turned into a huge win for punters that had the foresight to back them as the $3.05 underdogs.

Roger Tuivasa-Sheck made life unbearable for Mitchell Pearce as he sold him some candy not once, but twice.

RTS was paying $2.30 Anytime and $6.50 to score a double, some nice added value for those that included him in their multi.

The Kiwis are now just four points behind the Sharks and can be had at $21.00 to make the Top 8.

They do, however, face a tough run home with games against the Eels, Sharks, Raiders and Sea Eagles over the coming month.

If You’re Not First, You’re Last

Backing our First Try Scorer 6-Pack is quickly turning into a guaranteed way to wind up on top.

Five of our ‘Favourites’ packs saluted over the weekend, the first coming nice and early as Corey Allen got the Rabbitohs on the board first against the Eels.

Adam Pompey followed suit for the Warriors on Saturday, followed shortly after by Kyle Feldt and our main man, David Nofoaluma.

Sunday was short and sweet, much like this ball from Lachlan Lewis to find Dallin Watene-Zelezniak in the corner to get the Dogs rolling against the Raiders in Canberra.

Mr. Irrelevant

Time to call out a couple of Saints.

Matt Dufty was paying $1.80 to score Anytime against the Titans, but he never came close with only 87 metres next to his name.

Zac Lomax was also a no-show for the third week in a row after going around at $2.05 in the market.

Dufty and Lomax are two of the most exciting youngsters in the league right now and the Dragons need both of their playmakers to step up with time quickly running out.

St George now find themselves six points off the eighth-placed Sharks with games against the Cowboys, Raiders, Knights and Storm to come.  

Futures Forecast

After being blown out by South Sydney on Thursday night, Parramatta are now $8.50 out from $6.00 to win the Grand Final, while the Bunnies are $17.00 in from $21.00.

The ‘Most Losses’ market has also seen some action with the Bulldogs and Broncos fighting it out.

Brisbane are $2.40, while the Dogs are into $1.85 despite a very gallant effort in the first half against the Raiders last week.

It’s safe to say this should be a very interesting battle over the next month when you consider each team’s remaining schedule:

Brisbane BroncosCanterbury Bulldogs
Round 17: vs Panthers (Suncorp)Round 17: vs Titans (ANZ)
Round 18: @ Titans (CBUS)Round 18: vs Sea Eagles (ANZ)
Round 19: @ Eels (TBD)Round 19: @ Rabbitohs (TBD)
Round 20: vs Cowboys (TBD)Round 20: vs Panthers (TBD)

Bloody Good Bets

Savvy punters continue to take advantage of our $2.00 line offer, especially when it comes to the heavy favourites.

  • $30k @ $2.00: Cronulla Sharks to Cover the Line (-8.5)
  • $25k @ $2.00: Penrith Panthers to Cover the Line (-12.5)
  • $50k @ $2.00: Melbourne Storm to Cover the Line (-6.5)

Don’t Tell the Misso

Lastly, we’ve seen some outrageously poor decisions from punters when it comes to live betting this season, and while we admire the enthusiasm towards our Tigers, this one easily takes the cake.

  • $50k @ $2.35: Wests Tigers to Win (Live Betting)