Finals fever is well and truly in the air as punters continue to build a bank on the favourites.
Aside from the Warriors game, seven of the eight favourites saluted during Round 15, but that still wasn’t enough to stop the book from coming out on top.
The Eels upset over the Storm has once again altered the futures market, while the Panthers are the new favourites for the minor premiership after winning their 10th game in a row.
We’ve got you covered with all the facts and figures, so if you’re looking for a leg-up heading into Round 16, be sure to sink your teeth into another edition of The Offload!
Performance of the Week
The Rabbitohs put the entire league on notice with their half-century against the Sea Eagles on Saturday.
Even without Dane Gagai, Souths made short work of an injury depleted Manly side piling on a whopping nine tries in their 56-16 victory at ANZ.
Gagai’s replacement, Steven Marsters, lobbed at $13.00 odds on debut as the First Try Scorer, while he was also a handy collect @ $3.00 for those that backed him Anytime.
Alex Johnston had himself a double in the first paying $3.75 before leaving the ground with a concussion.
Campbell Graham also rubbed further salt in the Sea Eagles’ wound with his own double at $8.00 odds.
Four wins on the trot now leaves the Bunnies well in the hunt for a spot in the top four, although they do face a couple of big tests over the coming fortnight with games against the Eels and the Storm.
Even so, there’s a lot to like about Wayne Bennett’s squad as they return to full strength.
Souths are playing with a real edge as they continue to stretch their opponents out wide, while it appears Latrell Mitchell is growing more and more confident in the green and red with each game.
If you fancy the Bunnies as a dark horse, now might be the time to jump on.
Souths are $23 into $17 to win the Premiership and $21.00 to make the Top 4!
Don’t Argue…
With the birthday boys.
The Roosters were in desperate need for both Morris brothers to take the field on Saturday night after coming up well short to the Storm a week earlier.
After missing four straight games, BMoz wasted no time finding the line 14 minutes in against the Tigers, before scoring himself a double not long after @ $4.75.
JMoz also had himself a day out scoring his own double @ $8.50.
It goes without saying that the Roosters are a much different side with the Morris twins on the field, and they’ll need every bit of them over the coming month with games against the Raiders, Knights, Sharks and Rabbitohs before the finals.
Punters Pals
- Maika Sivo Anytime @ $1.85: it had been a while between drinks since Sivo had last found the line – four weeks to be exact. He played a crucial part in the Eels’ win over the Storm on Thursday night though, scoring a crucial try right before half time. The Parramatta winger has now scored in five of his last six matches at Bankwest, a trend to keep in mind ahead of Thursday’s blockbuster against the Bunnies.
- The Over on Sharks Games: The Total Points line on Friday between the Panthers and Sharks was 43.5, so if you backed the Over, you walked away happy. If you missed it, make sure you load up on the Over ahead of Cronulla’s game against the Cowboys on Saturday. The Total has now gone Over in 12 of their last 13 matches.
- Broncos at the Line (+10.5): the line drifted from +6 out to double-digits ahead of Brisbane’s Friday night encounter against St George, which funnily enough turned into a bit of a steal for punters. There’s been very little to celebrate about the Broncos this year, but they have been money against the Dragons over the years. Brisbane has now covered in eight of its last nine Friday night games against St George.
- Raiders at the Line (-12): the Green Machine proved too strong for our Titans on Saturday, which likely resulted in a win for those that backed the Raiders to cover the line. Canberra has now covered in six of their last seven games against the Gold Coast, just in case you lost count.
- Roger Tuivasa-Sheck Anytime @ $2.60: RTS has now found the line in seven of his last eight appearances against the Bulldogs after scoring the game-winner on Sunday. This has quietly been one of the top money plays over the last three years, so jot it down!
- Hymel Hunt Anytime @ $1.85: Hunt was the favourite in Sunday’s Anytime market against the Cowboys and he did not disappoint scoring 14 minutes in. It’s a bit of a quirky trend, but he’s now scored a try in each of the Knights’ last five matches as a home favourite.
The Over on Tiger Games: similar to the Sharks, the Over has turned into a pretty profitable bet in Tigers’ games. The Total has now gone Over in each of their last six after combining for 54-points against the Roosters on Saturday.
Don’t Forget About…
We’ve got a couple of players to highlight this week.
The first is Mikaele Ravalawa, who continues to stake his claim for the top spot on the try scorer’s list after claiming his third double of the season on Friday night against the Broncos (paying $4.75).
Ravalawa currently ranks fifth and just two off the current leader, Alex Johnston. He can be found at $12.00 in our Top Try Scorer market after firming in from $17.00.
The second is Nick Cotric, who worked his way into the Top 10 with a double against the Titans on Saturday paying $4.50.
The 21-year-old endured a slow start to the season, but has now scored two tries in back-to-back games. He’ll have another huge opportunity to add to his tally on Sunday against Canterbury and remains a $34.00 outside chance.
Mr. Irrelevant
This is probably a bit stiff, but we have to call out Josh Addo-Carr.
The ‘Foxx’ was a $2.60 bet in our Anytime market on Thursday night against the Eels, which is a little over the odds considering the price normally on offer.
Perhaps the bookies knew something, because Addo-Carr failed to find the line in the Storm’s 14-0 shutout loss.
The superstar winger finished with 128 metres next to his name, so unless you had him in SuperCoach, you likely walked away empty-handed.
Futures Forecast
Time for the good stuff.
The Panthers are now co-favourites with the Roosters in our NRL Premiership market following Friday’s win over the Sharks.
NRL Round 15 Moves
Penrith Panthers: $4.00 👉 $3.75
Melbourne Storm: $3.75 👉 $4.00
Manly Sea Eagles: $61.00 👉 $201
Cronulla Sharks: $26.00 👉 $34.00
South Sydney Rabbitohs (To Miss Top 8): $4.00 👉 $7.00
Alex Johnston (Top Try Scorer): $5.50 👉 $3.50
Bloody Good Bets
The book enjoyed a very positive result on the outcome of the Eels v Storm game, but there was one punter that walked away with a decent collect after placing $15k on Parramatta to cover the -3.5 line.
Speaking of the line, we mentioned earlier how solid the Raiders have been against the Titans, and it appears a few punters were clued in.
We took $13k and $15k on the Raiders to cover on what was one of only three negative match results for the book.
Don’t Tell the Misso
If you woke up to a couple of X’s in your 10-leg Same Game Multi, don’t sweat it, king. These blokes are way worse off than you’ll ever be (maybe).
- $20k @ $2.50: Melbourne Storm to Win
- $25k @ $3.50: Brisbane Broncos to Win
- $20k @ $2.00: St George-Illawarra Dragons to Cover the Line (-10.5)
- $10k @ $2.00: Wests Tigers to Cover the Line (+6.0)
- $25k @ $2.00: Canterbury Bulldogs to Cover the Line (+1)
And finally, what can only be described as one of the most ludicrous bets of the season.
- $90k @ $1.96: Canterbury Bulldogs to Win