Only six rounds remain before the finals as we try and catch our breath following another wild weekend of footy.
Melbourne’s epic win over the Roosters last Thursday night has made the ladder and the Premiership market mighty interesting moving forward, while the Eels loss to the Dragons has also left the door open for a few other teams to sneak into the top four.
With things really starting to get serious, the bookies have provided us with all the important data to give you a leg up in our Round 14 edition of The Offload below!
Performance of the Week
How could you possibly go past the understrength Storm?
With Cameron Munster and Cameron Smith both absent from the side, Melbourne still managed to pull out a stunning 24-6 victory over the Roosters to cost the book, well… let’s just say, a decent sum.
Melbourne were flat out disrespected in the market at early $3.30 odds last Monday, but it didn’t take long for punters to clue on as the head-to-head price firmed into $2.30 right before kickoff.
Jahrome Hughes was the first big collect crossing the line four minutes into the game. The big Kiwi was paying $26 in our First Try Scorer market, followed by a double from Justin Olam at $10.00 to seal the deal.
The Storm are now second on the ladder ahead of another big test against the Eels on Thursday.
If you fancy Melbourne to win the ‘chip though, now is the time to get on.
The Storm are $3.75 favourites in from $4.50 in our Premiership market with only six games remaining!
Don’t Argue…
Mikaele Ravalawa.
St George’s season still has a pulse thanks to a double from the star Fijian paying $7.50 against the Eels last Friday night.
The Dragons were paying $5.00 in our head-to-head market, a huge collect for those brave enough to take the Red V outright.
St George are now in control of their own destiny with three very winnable games against the Broncos, Titans and Cowboys in the coming weeks.
You can take $15.00 for the Dragons to sneak into the eight – not a bad bet with a six-point gap between themselves and the eighth-placed Rabbitohs.
Punter’s Pals
- Panthers 1-12 @ $3.20: the Panthers survived a bit of a scare against the Warriors on Friday night in their 18-12 win, a margin that has become a bit of a recurring theme for Penrith this season. Six of the Panthers’ last nine games have been decided by 1-12 points.
- Herbie Farnworth Anytime @ $4.50: the Broncos put up a decent effort during the first half against the Raiders thanks to some brilliant play from Herbie Farnworth. The youngster has now scored in each of his last three away games after finding the line right before half time on Saturday night.
- Sharks at the Line: line bettors continue to cash-in on the Sharks. Saturday’s line against the Titans firmed into -7.5 before kickoff as Cronulla went on to win 30-18. As a result, the Sharks have now covered in each of their last five games.
- Kurt Mann Anytime @ $5.25: keep an eye out for Kurt Mann next time the Knights play as a favourite. The big man has now scored in six of Newcastle’s last eight games as a favourite after bulldozing his way to the line in Sunday’s narrow win over Manly.
- Joey Leilua Anytime @ $2.75: it was a nervous old game for Tiger fans on Sunday after Joey Leilua’s game-tying try in the 72nd minute against the Bulldogs. For whatever reason, Leilua seems to save his best for Canterbury: he’s now scored in five of his last six appearances against the Dogs.
- Clinton Gutherson Anytime @ $2.40: the trends suggested Gutherson was a good chance to score on Friday night against the Dragons and he did not disappoint. The Eels’ fullback opened the scoring 13 minutes in and has now scored in each of Parra’s last four home games against St George.
Don’t Forget About…
Michael Morgan.
The Cowboys’ skipper was well and truly over the odds heading into Saturday’s game against the Rabbitohs when you consider he’d scored in three of his last four home games against the Bunnies.
Punters that backed Morgan to score a double @ $15.00 were also rewarded as the big man crossed the line again in the second half to really put the pressure on Souths.
It’s great to see him fit, healthy, and back on the scoresheet, but don’t be surprised if the odds are a little shorter when the Cowboys travel to Newcastle on Sunday.
Mr. Irrelevant
He wasn’t completely irrelevant on the stat sheet, but Stephen Crichton still came up short where it mattered most on Friday night against the Warriors.
After scoring in eight straight games leading in, Crichton went around as the $1.90 favourite in our Anytime Try Scorer market against a New Zealand side that ranks third in missed tackles.
The 19-year-old finished with four tackle breaks and 169 metres to his name, but ultimately failed to find the try line to extend his scoring record.
Futures Forecast
We’ve already touched on the Storm’s big firm from $4.50 into $3.75 in Premiership betting, but there were a couple of other key moves in the futures market at the conclusion of Round 14.
The Broncos are $3.50 into $2.50 co-favourites with the Bulldogs in our ‘Most Losses’ market following Saturday’s pounding at the hands of the Raiders.
Also on the drift are the Roosters, who find themselves back out to $4.00 behind the Storm and Panthers in the Premiership market.
Bloody Good Bets
A few high rollers absolutely cleaned up over the weekend thanks to our $2.00 line offer!
- $10k @ $2.00: Melbourne Storm to Cover the Line (+8.5)
- $25k @ $2.00: Melbourne Storm to Cover the Line (+4.5)
- $20k @ $2.00: New Zealand Warriors to Cover the Line (+15.5)
- $10k @ $2.00: North Queensland Cowboys to Cover the Line (+6.5)
- $20k @ $2.00: Manly Sea Eagles to Cover the Line (+8.5)
Don’t Tell the Misso
And finally, spare a thought for our brothers living on two minute noodles.
- $20k @ $2.00: Sydney Roosters to Cover the Line (-4.5)
- $20k @ $2.00: Penrith Panthers to Cover the Line (-15.5)
- $10k @ $3.50: Manly Sea Eagles to Win
Mad Multi’s
The margin market is always a little risky, but hats off to this punter that pulled off one of the lands of the season!
- $200 @ $95.99 (Boosted Odds): Canberra Raiders 13+, Wests Tigers 1-12, South Sydney Rabbitohs 1-12, Newcastle Knights 1-12, Cronulla Sharks 1-12