I’m jumping on the Grizzlies yet again here, this time catching 3 points against Milwaukee.
This is a crucial game for Memphis, with a win guaranteeing them a spot in the play-in tournament.
Milwaukee have had the #1 seed locked up for a while now and again have nothing to play for here.
I don’t expect an especially strong lineup from the Bucks, with Giannis and Wes Matthews already ruled out.
Grizzlies coach Taylor Jenkins used to be an assistant for Budenholzer and I can see the Bucks coach doing his good friend a solid here.
Even if the rest of Milwaukee’s starters play, I’d expect a cap of 15-20 minutes with this being their last game before the play-offs.
Despite their poor recent form, tenacity and effort haven’t been a problem for Memphis.
Their problem has been inferior talent against much stronger teams, but they should be on a level playing field with Milwaukee’s lack of motivation.
I think they win this one outright to cap off a solid season, but will gladly take the 3 points currently on offer.
The Suns have been very impressive in the seeding games thus far and I’d expect them to continue that here.
Dallas is locked into the #7 seed and has no upside to gain from winning here.
Several of their key players are already likely to miss this one and I don’t envisage big minutes for the starters that do play.
If Memphis lose and the Suns win, Phoenix will clinch a spot in the play-in tournament.
Since they play at the same time as Memphis, I don’t see a potential lack of motivation (if Memphis win) being an issue here.
They enter this clash fairly healthy and have found a cohesive starting five that plays well together.
5.5 points is a substantial amount to lay here, but they’ve got very high stakes and should be playing hard.
Especially if Dallas rest more key players, this line could climb before tip-off.
Just a note that I only like this play if both the Suns and Grizzlies lose.
According to current odds, that only has roughly a 20% chance of coming to fruition.
If it does though, a win here would grant San Antonio a spot in the play-in tournament.
Utah are another side with nothing to play for, locked into the #6 seed and a first-round series with Denver.
Gobert and Conley have already been ruled out and I don’t anticipate big minutes for any of the starters that do play.
The Spurs have been very impressive throughout the bubble and have played a fast-paced and engaging style.
They enter this clash healthy and motivated (should Phx and Memphis lose) and should be able to win this comfortably.