AFL Round 13 Tips & Preview

Friday night football heats up, literally, as the Gold Coast Suns host Carlton in Darwin where the heat and humidity will be ramped up as these two fight to keep their season alive.

Firstly, if you’re a Carlton fan you can’t help but be up and about after Jack Newnes amazing snap after the siren to win the game against Freo last Saturday night.

JACK NEWNES WINS IT AFTER THE SIREN 🤯#AFLFreoBlues pic.twitter.com/Rs9qmX1fup

— AFL (@AFL) August 15, 2020

Bloody oath, that was good.

With five wins and six losses, The Blues find themselves currently sitting 12th on the ladder and if they are able to chalk up the W this Friday night they can still be in the hunt to play finals.

While last weekends win over Freo sure was memorable, I hate to be Buzz Killington here but the Blues have won two out of their past four games.

Both of those wins have been by narrow margins to lower-ranking teams – North Melbourne and Freo and they’ve lost convincingly to Hawthorn and West Coast in between.

The Gold Coast Suns are very much living up to the “everyone’s second favourite team” status and they very much lived up to those expectations with a highly competitive performance against Richmond on Monday night.

Gold Coast matched it with the reigning premiers for most of the game until the Tigers ran away with a 21 point win.

Having only won one out of their last eight, the W/L ratio is a familiar one for the Gold Coast Suns but they are far from the easy beat percentage booster they once were.

Backing it up from Monday night to Friday night is a bloody hard ask.

Carlton with a bit of extra rest and fresher legs should be able to get the job done in this one.

The bookies have set the line at -8.5 in favour of the Blues.

They should be able to beat it.

Another game that could make or break a season takes place with the Doggies “hosting” the Dees down at Metricon Stadium.

A 57 point win over Adelaide did the Western Bulldogs a world of good last week, as having the bye should do.

Six sausage rolls from Aaron Naughton, the Bont getting plenty of the footy with 33 disposals and slotting in two, Lachie Hunter was right amongst it and Bailey Smith (and his glorious mullet) had 37 disposals.

Melbourne had their best win of the season last weekend delivering a 56 point thumping to Collingwood at the Gabba.

The Dees looked back to their 2018 best with a seven-goal second quarter last weekend.

Clayton Oliver and Christian Petracca are proving to be quite the duo in the midfield.

Charlie Spargo had a day out with three goals.

After three wins on the trot, Melbourne now finds themselves in eighth position.

While they are a team with a reputation not to trust when they start to look like they’ve got their house in order, it’s worth noting the Western Bulldogs are 0-5 when playing top-eight teams.

Melbourne goes into the game narrow favourites, but this could be a bit of an arm-wrestle so there’s value in going the half time/full-time double with the Dees to get the job done at the final siren.

“We’ll never stop, stop, stop ‘till we’re top, top, top” they sing in the Port Adelaide theme song, and they did just that with a 60 point loss to Geelong last week.

One week they are beating Richmond in what many describe as the game of the season, next getting pummeled by the Cats with Tom Hawkins booting six dominating in the goal square.

They will most certainly welcome the prospect of playing a depleted Hawthorn who with some major outs due to injury cannot wait soon enough for this season to end.

James Sicily rupturing his ACL, potentially missing 12 months of Football is devastating news for the Hawks and the game in general.

Port has proven that they are a good enough team to bounce back and have been top of the ladder all year.

There is zero chance of some sort of Alistair Clarkson genius coaching game here.
It’s a matter of how Port Adelaide will win this.

Take them to beat the line for value.

For obvious reasons, there’s no “Dreamtime at the G” this year but Dreamtime in Darwin is set to be something special.

If you’re a trivia buff, this is the first time Essendon and Richmond haven’t played at the MCG since 1994 – and that game was at Princes Park of all places!

Richmond comes off a 21 point win – shrugging off a competitive Gold Coast Suns at the Gabba on Monday night and their ability to win good, bad and ugly shouldn’t be underestimated.

Trent Cotchin was dominant in the midfield, Dylan Grimes a rock in defence and social media’s favourite forward Tom Lynch is free to play.

Essendon is coming off a 35 point loss to the Saints, now having not won in their past four games including that draw to the Gold Coast.

With the mix of a heavy injury toll and struggling forward line, Essendon’s hopes of making and winning that elusive final are getting away from them this year.

How both teams will handle the humid conditions of a hot Darwin August night will be interesting to watch but the Tigers are the clear favourites going into this game.

They should be able to conjure up a win, “In any weather” as the song suggests and get the job done cementing their top eight spot in this clash.

Some advanced mathematics may put either of these teams in the finals mix, otherwise, they are just going through the motions.

For a team struggling down the bottom of the ladder, the Sydney Swans are having a crack and have been able to string some good wins – including last weeks demolition of the Giants.

Sydney will go into this game the underdog and Fremantle will want to make amends after that heartbreaking loss to the Blues.

I’m expecting a low scoring, keepings off type of game with both teams doing everything they can not to lose it.

When in doubt, go for Freo to win at home.

However, there’s some good value in either team to win under 15.5 points here, and I’m going to have a piece of that.

Right now, there’s an ambitious punter who looks at the 0-12 Adelaide Crows and thinks “Mate, they are due.”

The punter sees the odds of Adelaide being $8.70 H2H (at time of publish) compared to Geelong’s Winx-like $1.09 and has those “Well, it’s a two-horse race” thoughts.

Some Geelong fans might even be scared about playing the Crows as they don’t want to be that team that loses to them.

Even if they are playing some sensational football with big wins over the Saints and Power in the space of a week, there’s a Geelong fan fearing in the back of their head that they will blow a major percentage booster by not taking this game seriously.

You may laugh, but there are people who do think like this.

It’s Tex Walkers 200th game, they are 0-12, Geelong won’t take it seriously and the game is being played in Adelaide.

Basically, I’m trying to mount an argument as to why Geelong won’t win this by 60+ points (and you should probably check back for Tom Hawkins to kick 5+ goals when that market becomes available)

Because the Cats will win this and it will be ugly…for Adelaide supporters.

But then again, the Crows are due right?

The mighty Brisbane Lions (proudly sponsored by Neds) taking on the Saints at the Gabbatoir this Sunday arvo is set to be a beauty in a potential finals preview.

Brisbane won last week and the four premiership points is all they will take from it along with what appeared to be an epic spray from the usually calm, cool and collected coach Chris Fagan.

For the old school lovers of coaching 📚#AFLNorthLions pic.twitter.com/a0xAiKk4mS

— AFL (@AFL) August 15, 2020

Yet again, inaccuracy in front of goal is becoming an issue for the Lions who have kicked more behinds than goals in seven out of their last ten games.

St Kilda bounced back well against the Bombers last Sunday and young Max King up forward has been a delight – he booted three majors and along with the Jack’s – Steele and Billings played a vital role in their 35 point win.

It is worth factoring in, that this is pretty much a clash of Gaaba co-tenants right now.

The Saints have played three out of their last four at the ground but you would be a fool to go past the Lions at home.

West Coast will look to make it eight in a row as they face a depleted GWS Giants at their Optus Stadium fortress.

Of course, you’ll pencil the Eagles in for the win in this one.

However, GWS can still find themselves in the top eight because its 2020.

Had it not been for free kicks the Giants would have kicked 0-7 (7) last weekend in what was a pathetic performance against the Sydney Swans.

If this is a team that wants to be winning premierships, dishing up performances like last week makes it very hard to convince anyone the “premiership window” is open.

It’s very easy to mount the argument no Toby, no Giants.

The Eagles are just humming along nicely, making hay while the sunshines at their home ground and got the job done easily over the Hawks last Sunday.

Perhaps GWS will show some ticker, but West Coast will be simply too good for them and make it eight on the trot.

Collingwood are currently sitting 7th on the AFL ladder but they are easily the worst team in the top eight.

The Pies have lost three out of their last five and their two wins over Sydney and Adelaide have been hardly inspirational.

Some of Collingwood’s best players have suffered injuries and they’ve found it hard to actually score.

Melbourne spanked the Magpies last week and there are good reasons to be concerned about the state of Collingwood’s season.

North, on the other hand, are 17th on the ladder but were highly competitive against Brisbane last Saturday with the young kids having a crack and a vintage performance from Todd Godstein in the ruck.

Collingwood will probably win this, but in a really ugly way which has pretty much been there style all season.

However, despite the ladder position North Melbourne are far from easybeats.

The line has been set -15.5 in favour of the Magpies and I wouldn’t put it beyond the Kangas to beat it.