It was a huge round for the favourites in more ways than one.
Aside from the Bulldogs, seven of the eight head-to-head favourites managed to get up, while we also saw the likes of Maika Sivo, Josh Addo-Carr and Sione Katoa salute at decent value in our Anytime Try Scorer market.
The book suffered a decent loss on four of the eight results over the weekend, proving that those who pay attention to the trends tend to come out on top.
Fortunately, we’re back with another dose of numbers, big bets, and feel-good losses in the Round 11 edition of ‘The Offload’ below.
Performance of the Week
The Sharks might be the most dangerous team in the competition if they keep this up.
Saturday’s derby from Jubilee was an absolute treat to watch as Cronulla turned in a gritty 28-24 performance over the Dragons to slide themselves back inside the eight.
The line swung back and forth leading up to the game, but the punters clearly got it right with the Sharks firming into -1.5 favourites before kickoff.
Cronulla winning was a massive blow to the book, especially with the Sharks paying $3.00 to win by 1-12.
If you also fancy the Sharks as a bit of a dark horse in Premiership betting, be sure to get in quick. Cronulla has firmed from $67 into $34 following Saturday’s win!
Don’t Argue…
With Josh Addo-Carr.
The writing was on the wall nice and early for the Broncos on Friday night when the ‘Foxx’ pounced on Anthony Milford’s goal-line blunder to score a minute into the game.
Addo-Carr was paying $7.00 in our First Try Scorer market – great value when you consider he’d scored in each of his previous four games.
Punters that backed Addo-Carr to Score 2 or More Tries @ $3.75 had a bit of a nervous wait on the hands during the second half, but the Broncos eventually coughed up another to the Foxx in the 69th minute.
Punter’s Pals
- The Favourites in Wests Tigers’ Games: a real quirky trend has emerged over the last month when it comes to betting on the line in Tiger games. The line favourite has now saluted in each of Wests last six games after the Eels covered the early -7.5 spread on Thursday night.
- The Warriors on the Central Coast: the Warriors gave the Roosters all they could handle on Saturday in another spirited performance at their favourite home away from home. After losing by only eight, the Kiwis have now covered the line in five of their last six games played on the Central Coast.
- Ken Maumalo Anytime ($4.00): Maumalo stepped up in a big way against the Roosters with a handful of his teammates heading home. The 26-year-old found the line four minutes in, a huge result for those that backed him as the First Try Scorer @ $23.00. Maumalo has now scored in each of his last four games, so be sure to give him a look on Friday against the Tigers.
- Jarrod Croker Anytime ($3.00): the Canberra captain continues to put the team on his back after another big performance on Saturday against Souths. Croker was great value Anytime considering he had scored in four of his previous five appearances against the Bunnies.
- Anthony Don Anytime ($2.75): Don found the line right before half-time in Sunday’s loss to the Panthers to keep his dazzling run of form against Penrith alive. The big man has now scored in five of his last six appearances against Penrith.
- Bulldogs at the Line (+14.5): Canterbury pulled off the biggest upset of Round 11 with their six-point win over the Knights in Newcastle on Sunday. If you’re keeping count, the away team has now covered in each of the last seven matches between the Knights and Dogs.
- Stephen Crichton Anytime ($2.05): speaking of form, how about Crichton? Penrith’s explosive centre has now scored a try in his last six games.
Don’t Forget About…
Zac Lomax.
The Dragons center is easily one of the top emerging stars in the competition, as we saw on Saturday night in his two-try performance in the loss to the Sharks.
Lomax scored one of the tries of the season on his own kick-chase along the sidelines in the first half, followed by another in the second half to salute @ $9.00 in our ‘To Score 2 Tries or More’ market.
Mr. Irrelevant
We gave Kurt Mann a bit of a wrap last week, but he let us down on Sunday in the loss to the Bulldogs.
The Knights fullback had scored a try in each of Newcastle’s previous five games as a favourite, and at $3.40 odds to score Anytime, he appeared great value.
Unfortunately, Mann never looked likely as he finished with only 76m to his name in the wet conditions.
Future’s Forecast
The Knights losing to the Bulldogs on Sunday has not only cost them a couple of spots on the ladder, its also hurt them in the Premiership market.
Newcastle hasdrifted from $17 out to $34 and now find themselves on the same line of betting as the up and coming Sharks.
The Bulldogs have also drifted a little in the ‘Most Losses’ market from $2.00 out to $3.00 thanks to the state of all three Queensland teams, while the Raiders are back into single-digits from $15.00 into $9 to win the ‘Chip.
Bad Beats
- Parramatta Eels (-10.5): the line for Thursday’s game between the Eels and the Tigers ballooned out right before kickoff, and it turned into a pretty bad beat for those that jumped on. Parramatta won by only 10-points in the end, largely due to Mitchell Moses’ inaccuracy on conversions.
- The Dragons: plenty of punters were fuming at the video ref when the Sharks were awarded a controversial try in the first half against St George. A second look showed Matt Dufty clearly had his hand on the ball first, a decision that ultimately cost the Dragons the game.
Bloody Good Bets
The line appears to be the safest option in this whacky season and punter’s are starting to cotton on in a big way.
- $10k @ $2.00 (Live Betting): New Zealand Warriors to Cover the Line (+24.5)
- $10k @ $2.00: Cronulla Sharks to Cover the Line (-1)
- $5k @ $6.00: Canterbury Bulldogs to Win
- $25k @ $2.10: Parramatta Eels 13+
Don’t Tell the Misso
Never go the early crow.
It’s one of the golden rules when it comes to punting, but it appears some people can’t help themselves when it comes to the live market!
- $20k @ $6.00 (Live Betting): New Zealand Warriors to Cover the Line (-2.5)
- $30k @ $2.00 (Live Betting): St George Illawarra Dragons to Cover the Line (-2.5)
- $20k @ $2.00 (Live Betting): South Sydney Rabbitohs to Win
- $2k @ $17 (Live Betting): Gold Coast Titans to Win