It’s Round 3 reevaluation time as we run through all the numbers, trends and key moments from another huge weekend in footy.
If you’re a fan of backing the favourite, you’re probably feeling a little worse for wear after four of the eight underdogs got up.
We’ve also seen some big moves in our Futures markets and a major change in our weekly power rankings, so be sure to read on below for the Round 3 edition of The Snapshot!
Performance of the Week
Important life lesson from Round 3: you’re never too old to do anything.
After Hawthorn – the oldest team in the competition – pulled Richmond’s pants down on Thursday night, it was only fitting for the 33-year-old Eddie Betts to come out on Saturday and rewind the clock against Geelong.
You kind of got the feeling we were in for a special night when Eddie slotted the first goal, paying a very cool $13.00, to get the Blues off to a fast start.
From there, Eddie had his fingers on everything, and while the stat sheet reads only two goals and 16 disposals, it was the little one-percenters, like his game-saving tackle (which we’ll discuss later) and his great entry inside 50 to find Cripps in the fourth quarter, that really stood out.
Footy is so much better, or should we say Betts-er, when Eddie is up and about. Three votes from us.
Punter’s Pals
- Michael Gibbons: you might not know it, but the Carlton youngster has been sneaky consistent over the last 12 months. He’s now kicked at least one goal in each of his last 11 appearances for the club, including what turned out to be a crucial goal late in the fourth quarter on Saturday night against the Cats. He was $1.85 to score Anytime, so clearly the bookies haven’t cottoned on.
- Carlton on Saturday: Sticking with the Blues, you might want to back them next time they go around as the underdogs, especially on a Saturday. They have now covered the line in eight of their last nine.
- Marvellous Marvel: Don’t be afraid to back the next underdog at Marvel Stadium, either. The outsider has now won eight of the last nine following the Doggies’ big win over GWS.
- GWS in Victoria: write this one down for later, but the Giants have now lost the first quarter in nine of their last 10 games played in Victoria.
- Swans on the Road: Sydney can be tough to trust, but not on the road. They’ve now covered the line in eight of their last nine away games after handing the Roos a reality check.
- Sidebottom at the ‘G: two years ago Steele Sidebottom finished second in Brownlow voting, but he might be winning the Charlie this year if things keep up. He’s now racked up 25+ disposals in eight of his last nine appearances at the MCG.
- Collingwood Unders: definitely one to take note of here. The Total has now gone Under in each of Collingwood’s last six games – even after Saturday’s demolition job against the Saints.
- Lachie Neale at the Gabba: we might be biased, but this bloke deserves to be the Brownlow favourite. He’s also been kind to punters, especially at the Gabba – where he’s kicked a goal in each of his last seven appearances.
- Ben King at Metricon: we’ll touch on King’s massive day shortly, but he’s quietly become a hot commodity when the Suns are at home. Following Saturday’s three-goal bag, the youngster has now kicked 2 or more goals in five of Gold Coast’s last nine home games.
- Port Adelaide at Metricon: we’ve saved the best for last. After dismantling Fremantle, Port Adelaide has now covered the line in each of their last five night games played at Metricon.
If You’re Not First, You’re Last
Pat on the back for those that not only backed Josh Dunkley as the First Goal Kicker on Friday night ($26) but also Anytime ($2.75).
After some serious pushing, shoving, and even hair-pulling before the bounce, Dunkley lined up right in front to put the Dogs ahead – a lead they never surrendered.
Dunkley was our highest paying First Goal Kicker of the round (even though hardly anybody backed him), and if you had him in your multi Anytime, you’d surely be stoked about the value. Here’s hoping his ankle recovers quickly.
The biggest (and only) blow to the book was Ben Brown on Saturday, who was paying $8.50 to score first between the Roos and Swans.
Other notables include Darcy Macpherson, who not only scored first for the Suns at juicy $23 odds but also added this absolute gem from the boundary.
The Baggage Area
Imagine if you had the cojones to back Chad Wingard @ $34.00 in our ‘Most Goals’ market on Thursday night.
Hawthorn’s small forward is always a danger man, but nobody, especially the bookies, expected Wingard to kick three on the reigning premiers.
We touched on Ben Brown earlier, who came through for punters in our First Goal Kicker market.
The big man had a quiet one last week in the win over GWS, and although his side failed to claim the chocolates against the Swans, it was nice to see him bounce back with a three-goal bag.
How about our man Jarrod Berry though, who kicked three goals for only the second time in his career against West Coast on Saturday night.
Liam Ryan did a nice job matching Berry’s tally mind you, finishing with three himself.
Staying up in Queensland, mad love to Ben King, who was absolutely enormous with three goals in the Suns’ blowout win over the Crows.
The 19-year-old was the $4.00 favourite in our ‘Most Goals’ market and looks a name to watch alongside Rising Star favourite, Matt Rowell.
Disposal Demons
Really great to see Jack Macrae back to his usual self following Round 2’s dismal performance against St Kilda.
The Bulldogs midfielder is a serious Brownlow contender when he plays at his best, so punters had to be happy with his 25 disposals paying $1.72.
Speaking of the Brownlow, let’s get back to Steele Sidebottom. Not only did he crack 30+ disposals for the 56th time in his career, but he did so paying $7.50 in our ’30 Disposals Or More’ market.
Also in the green was Lachie Neale. We touched on just how brilliant he is at the Gabba earlier, but 30 Disposals at $2.50? Pretty handy collect.
Last but not least, take a bow if you backed the Gold Coast’s Touk Miller to have 25 Disposals @ $3.00.
The 24-year-old has clocked big numbers in this category before, so that price was probably always over the odds.
Mr Irrelevant
Happy to pin the tag on Josh Kennedy this week.
He was on our radar following his lousy one-goal outing in the loss to the Suns, a performance he managed to replicate on Saturday against in West Coast’s blowout defeat to the Lions.
At 32-years of age, one has to wonder if the two-time Coleman Medalist is over the hill.
Kennedy was paying $1.15 in our Anytime Goal Kicker market, and while he did manage to at least get one on the board, the trends suggest he really should have finished with more.
Coming into the game, Kennedy had scored 3+ goals in each of his last five appearances against the Lions, so if you took him @ $5.00 in our ‘Most Goals’ market, you’re probably still feeling a little short-changed.
One for the Blackbook
Absolutely love everything Tyler Brown is about.
The 20-year-old played a big part in Collingwood’s win over St Kilda, kicking his first AFL goal with his brother Callum there to celebrate.
Footy is in his blood, and with more game time, he’s going to be a machine in the Magpie midfield, especially if he continues to sell candy like this…
Like a Librarian
Eddie Betts takes the cake this week for his game-saving tackle against the Cats.
The one thing you’re taught from a young age is to hustle, so to watch the old boy not only boot the ball forward but then go on and chase down Jack Henry from behind was quite extraordinary.
Also hard to go past our man Cam Rayner, who’s admittedly had a quiet couple of weeks since the restart.
Fingers crossed this outstanding chase down of Shannon Hurn helps light the fire.
Specky Magee
Slippery pill + Nat Fyfe. Magic, plain and simple.
Bad Beats
– Carlton 40+: Easily the cruellest beat you’ll see all season. Carlton was paying $41 to defeat Geelong by 40+ points on Saturday, and mid-way through the third quarter up 42, it looked like it just might happen.
– Tom Lynch 2+ Goals: Quiet day at the office for Lynch made even worse by this horrific set shot. Tough times if you backed him to have 2+ Goals @ $1.25.
From Outside Fitty, and Beyond
Talk about ending the first quarter in style.
Our man Brandon Starcevich drained this long-range effort from wayyyyy downtown against West Coast to ensure the Lions didn’t end the first term goal-less on Saturday night.
Just what you want to see from your former first-round pick!
Don’t Tell The Misso (Bad Bets)
And finally, if your multi fell short by a leg last weekend, never fear, someone is always much worse off than you are.
- $100k North Melbourne to Win @ $1.58
- $44k St Kilda to Win @ $2.55