The Premiership market paints a telling picture this week following the Roosters big win and the Storm’s loss to the Panthers.
It was also a fair round of footy for punters with only two upsets occurring, while the battle for the wooden spoon continues to heat up with the Queensland sides struggling.
Like we do every week, we’re laying out all the market moves, top trends and worst bets in the Round 6 edition of The Offload!
Performance of the Week
The Roosters appear to be in a league of their own after fighting off the Eels for a 24-10 victory on Saturday night.
The momentum swung back and forth, but like they always say, great teams find a way to win, even if it isn’t always pretty.
After Maika Sivo ran through James Tedesco to put the Eels ahead, it seemed as though Parramatta might actually get the job done.
What the Eels failed to account for though was the class of Boyd Cordner – who was on the receiving end of a brilliant Luke Keary run to put the champs back in front.
The fact the Roosters were so cool and calm in the face of pressure came as no surprise. Their 0-2 start to the season feels like a lifetime ago now, and with what should be another win this week over the Dragons, it’s safe to declare the reigning premiers as the team to beat.
After Saturday’s win, the Chooks have firmed even further in our NRL Premiership market from $3.75 into $3.25, so if you want a piece of the action, now’s the time to get on board.
Don’t Argue…
With Sione Katoa.
The Sharks winger was basically an ATM on Sunday with a stunning three try performance against Canterbury.
Paying $8.50 in our First Try Scorer market, Katoa’s aerial finish 11-minutes in was one of several bad results for the book, but the speedster wasn’t done finding pay dirt.
In what turned out to be a thriller, Katoa added another two tries just after half-time, a big result for those who backed him @ $13.00 to score his first hat-trick.
As for his next act, hopefully it comes in an Origin jersey.
Punter’s Pals
- Souths vs Warriors: if you take trends seriously, you likely cashed in big time on the Rabbitohs v Warriors game last Friday night. First off, the Bunnies have now won 10 of their last 11 against the Kiwis, and second, Alex Johnston has now scored a try in five of Souths last six games as the favourite.
- Viliame Kikau: the big fella scored the decisive try in Penrith’s huge win over the Storm, and if you paid attention to the trends, you probably knew it was coming. Kikau has now scored a try in seven of his last nine appearances with the Panthers as the home underdog.
- Wests Tigers: an almost flawless performance our very own Wests Tigers saw them over the line in a big way on Saturday night against the Cowboys, and not for the first time might we add. Michael Maguire’s men have now won six of their last seven against North Queensland.
- Kyle Feldt: there’s no two ways about it – if you don’t include Feldt as any Anytime Try Scorer in your next multi, you’re a fool. The Cowboys’ star winger has now found the line in eight of North Queensland’s last nine games after scoring a double in the loss to the Tigers (paying $5.25, by the way).
- Daniel Tupou: if the Roosters and Eels do meet in the finals, be sure to take whatever odds you can get on Daniel Tupou to score Anytime. He’s now scored in seven of his last 10 appearances against Parramatta after saluting at $1.87 on Saturday.
- Manly at the Line: lots to love about the Sea Eagles’ big win over the Raiders on Sunday, particularly if you were on them at the line. Manly has now covered in each of their last seven games against Canberra.
- Raiders and the Under: oh, and fyi, the Total has now gone Under in each of the Raiders’ last 13 games following their 14-6 defeat.
- Will Hopoate: keep an eye out for Hopoate the next time the Dogs play the Sharks. He’s now scored in three straight games against Cronulla.
Don’t Forget About
Zane Musgrove.
The 24-year-old scored his first NRL try on Saturday night in the Tigers’ big win over the Cowboys.
After struggling for game time at South Sydney, he seems to slotted in nicely with Wests and is a serious name to watch going forward.
Also special shoutout to the one punter who had $20 on Musgrove @ $46.00 in First Try Scorer market. That’s one to brag about!
Mr Irrelevant
Roger Tuivasa-Sheck – what’s going on?
RTS had scored in two of his last three away games against South Sydney, so the $2.80 about him Anytime appeared great value last week against the Bunnies.
Unfortunately, punters again came away empty-handed as the big man still searches for his first try of the season.
It’s Getting Hot in Here
For Paul Green.
The Cowboys coach delivered the spray of a lifetime during the break on Saturday, and while his side (or should we say Kyle Feldt) did respond in the second half, you do have to wonder how much longer he’ll be at the helm.
Plenty of people backed North Queensland to make the eight this year once Valentine Holmes signed, but injuries and slow starts have the cost Cowboys.
In terms of betting, North Queensland have firmed from $1.75 into $1.42 to Miss the Eight, while they’ve also received a trim in our ‘Most Losses’ market from $21 into $11.
Bloody Good Bets
We normally run with a ‘Bad Beats’ segment each week, but we actually saw more good bets than bad ones out of Round 6. Here’s a look at some of the best.
- $100 Kurt Mann First Try Scorer @ $31.00
- $10k Knights to Cover the Line (-7.5) @ $2.00
- $5k Rabbitohs to Cover the Line (-8.5) @ $2.00
- $10k Panthers to Cover the Line (+4.5) @ $2.00
- $250 Brett Morris First Try Scorer @ $12
Don’t Tell The Misso
And of course, for every good bet, there are just as many bad ones.
- $16k Raiders to Win @ $1.57
- $7k Sharks to Cover the Line (-5.5) @ $2.00
Mad Multis
It was another tight week when it came to multi’s, but we still saw a few decent ones come through that are worth sharing!
- $500 South Sydney Rabbitohs to Win, Cody Walker Anytime Try Scorer, Damien Cook Anytime Try Scorer @ $16.79
- $1,000 Mitchell Pearce Anytime Try Scorer, Daniel Saifiti Anytime Try Scorer @ $22