Backing winners and staying in the black in the world of AFL tipping is an almost impossible task right now.
From upsets and unexpected results here, there and everywhere plus games being postponed, this season is incredibly on-brand for the year 2020.
Given the shocking state of my tipping right now, desperate times call for desperate measures – that’s why I’ve decided to cut out each individual market from each game and draw whatever comes out of a hat as my bet for each game.
With this method and the current state of the 2020 season, I’m sure to get nine out of nine in AFL Round 4.
Allow me to go on a pedantic tangent before I give my tip for the game, this is not a re-match of the 2016 Grand Final.
This is four years later, a fair few players from that day don’t play anymore and unlike boxing the Bulldogs still keep the cup in the trophy cabinet at Whitten Oval.
As for the game itself, this match is actually quite hard to get a read of which is very on-brand for the year 2020.
The Bulldogs will travel up to the SCG with plenty of confidence after their win over the Giants last week.
If you are a Doggies fan you’d be up and about after that game, but anyone who actually likes Australian Rules Football knows deep down it was awful – even if there was a bit of push and shove between the two sides.
The Bulldogs played some of that hard-nosed contested footy that got them a finals appearance last year, but they still struggle in attack.
Despite no Buddy, Sydney is actually doing alright this year and are third in the AFL for points scored.
They were impressive when they beat North Melbourne last weekend and in typical Swans fashion, they just keep getting the job done when everyone starts to write them off.
Expect this one to be close, as have our bookies setting the line at -1.5 in favour of the Swans.
I’ll back the Dogs to cover it and win, only just.
This meeting of last season’s preliminary finalists should be a beauty (the correct way to phrase games like this) but recent form lines suggest otherwise.
GWS have been rather ordinary since the season resumed and have a serious problem with scoring – kicking only four last Friday night against the Bulldogs and unable to have any impact at the stoppages.
The good news for the Giants is that Toby Greene, Lachie Whitfield and Brent Daniels are likely to be back in the side which will give them a much-needed boost.
As has been the case for GWS in recent years, if they aren’t at full strength – they just don’t get the job done. Much like beer.
Collingwood is looking just fine.
Of the premiership favourites – Richmond, West Coast, GWS and themselves, they remain the only unbeaten team (including a draw).
Going into the game after an impressive win over the Saints, they’ll go into this one with last year’s Preliminary Final fresh in their minds.
It’s worth pointing out that GWS did beat them by 47 points when they last met at Giants Stadium, but it’s unlikely we will see anything like that on Friday night.
GWS will come back strong, but Collingwood is simply too good at the moment.
Take the Pies in the 1-39 bracket, even money.
Both these teams remain in the hub as they meet this Saturday afternoon at Metricon Stadium.
Hub life seems to be going alright for the Power who remain unbeaten after three rounds, whereas the Eagles are looking very homesick and ready to head back to Perth.
Port Adelaide have impressed so far in 2020 season with big wins, but if they are able to get West Coast who are still considered a “big scalp”, Power fans will start talking premierships.
If current trends continue both on and off the field, Port can dream of holding up the 2020 Premiership Cup in front of a packed Adelaide Oval in the prison bar jumper.
The West Coast Eagles look grim right now and need to get back to a packed Optus Stadium to the sounds of 60,000 people booing for two and a half hours.
FOX Sports power rankings this week revealed that the Eagles are in the bottom five for points scored, points against, points differential from turnovers, points differential from stoppages, time in forward half differential and contested possession differential.
These stats are sort of important.
They can blame the hubs all they like, but at the end of the day, this is a professional AFL team who won a premiership not so long ago.
I’m not prepared to write the Eagles off right now but firmly believe that Port will win this and win this comfortably.
Putting it out there, I wouldn’t want to be the Saints facing Richmond right now.
Sure, some are relishing them being 9th on the ladder (a position that they have not finished since 2008 and won premierships (plural) since) and writing them off for clickbait value but it won’t last.
Granted, some of the criticism of the Tigers is warranted right now.
Their first quarters since the season resumed have been awful, but they actually have improved around the second half of both matches winning the contested possessions and inside 50s.
Richmond knows the area they most need to improve on – the scoreboard and a nine-day break along with welcoming back Dustin Martin will do just the trick.
There was a bit of hype around the Saints last week going into their match against Collingwood, which turned out to be a reality check as to where they were really at.
St Kilda has a lot to like about them, but I’m expecting Richmond to come out breathing fire and get back to their winning ways this Saturday.
Everybody loves the Gold Coast Suns!
How can anybody not love them?
They play with such flair and attack.
After 10 years in the wilderness, this team might be onto something great.
Number 1 draft pick Matt Rowell is going to win the Rising Star, Brownlow, Norm Smith and Coleman in his debut season.
No pressure on the kid after three games, but we know this to be true.
Along with all the accolades and awards, he’s earned high praise from Collingwood coach Nathan Buckley for making tucking in your footy jumper fashionable once again.
Good to see Matt Rowell bringing jumper tucking back into vogue….and non preferred 50m goals #trendsetter
— Nathan Buckley (@ncb_cfc) June 21, 2020
Many Gold Coast Suns fans will be allowed back into Metricon Stadium this Saturday night to see their team live once again.
They can go in expecting a win over Freo, who have been ok but are heavily reliant on the likes of Nat Fyfe and Micheal Walters to get plenty of the football.
This is the Suns time to shine and they’ll make it three in a row this Saturday night.
Despite the crazy circumstances revolving Essendon this week, they go in favourites against Carlton.
The best bet I can give you is that the Bombers will probably win this one.
A club that’s had yet another week full of controversy, confusion over Connor McKenna’s COVID19 positive/negative test and having to postpone a game – you just know that the Bombers are going to win this one because it’s 2020.
Full credit to Carlton who had an awesome win over the Cats at GMHBA Stadium last week, but this weeks 2020 against-the-odds underdog winning from nowhere victory will go to the Bombers.
Thank goodness they won’t have to call on these blokes to play for them on Saturday.
Bomber fans can breathe a sigh of relief they didn't need to call on these blokes to play on the weekend! #AFL
— Neds (@NedsAus) June 23, 2020
The mighty Brisbane Lions (proudly sponsored by Neds) have the bye this week, or in 2020 speak that’s called playing the Adelaide Crows.
To put it bluntly, Adelaide is awful.
Their midfield – woeful.
Champion Data has seen the Crows lose the contested possession count by 17 or more and this includes their pre-season matches.
These are grim times for the once-pride of South Australia.
Akin to then-Treasurer Paul Keating in 1990, “This is the list re-build they had to have”
Perhaps Crows fans can look to the mighty Brisbane Lions (proudly sponsored by Neds) for inspiration.
Fages has built the team from the bottom up and the glory days are back at the Gabba, as 10,000 mad Lions fans will attest to this Sunday.
Expect Lachie Neale to suffer a case of leather poisoning, Charlie Cameron to kick a bag against his old side and the Brisbane Lions (proudly sponsored by Neds) to get a nice little percentage booster at this early stage of the season.
The Demons will go into this game fresh from playing against themselves last Sunday at the MCG and Geelong will be hurting after going down to Carlton at the Cattery.
Chris Scott and his beard will be filthy about it as well.
The Cats only played a quarter last week and perhaps he may need to remind Esva Ratugola about the code of football he is contracted to play given his audition to be a goalkeeper.
Esava Ratugolea spoiled a certain Tom Hawkins goal in the third quarter 😬 pic.twitter.com/hhq0DYZrO7
— 7AFL (@7AFL) June 20, 2020
Geelong may have gotten close to snatching a win last weekend, but they very much deserved to lose that one.
A recent trend has seen the Cats not win consecutive games since June of last year.
If that trend persists – they are due for a win this week.
They should be ok and that loss to Carlton should be a blip on the radar.
Geelong to get the job done.
It was after the 1987 Preliminary Final (Hawthorn v Melbourne, Gary Buckenara after the siren, 15-meter penalty, Jim Stynes) that Peter McKenna uttered the words “Never, ever write off Hawthorn.”
McKenna’s words still ring true in 2020 after the Hawks did an absolute number on reigning premiers Richmond last Thursday night.
Perhaps the Hawks just had an off-night when they went down to the Cattery a couple of weeks ago.
Their wins over Brisbane and Richmond this season have been quite impressive.
Hawthorn is developing a reputation of being giant killers having beaten every team that finished in the top six last year in their past 11 games.
North will be filthy about their loss to the Swans last Saturday.
They will be evenly matched with the Hawks and this game will be a good test in a clash between potential contenders.
With this being played at Marvel, it might actually work in North’s favour.
The Kangaroos in a close one.