AFL Round 3 Tips & Preview

AFL Round 3 Tips & Preview

Having the footy back gives us all the feels.

From knee-jerk reactions after one bad game, questionable decisions from the video review and MRO, upsets no one saw coming stuffing up our multis, teams being put under the blow-torch after a poor performance and superstars of the game doing what they do best. 

It was so wonderful to have it back in our lives and there’s no doubt Round 3 will deliver even more of that roller-coaster ride a season of AFL consists of.

We give our unique insight into AFL Round 3 with our tips and preview. 

Richmond vs Hawthorn
Richmond (-15.5) @ $2

Round 3 kicks off with the Tigers hosting the Hawks in a clash of MCG co-tenants and just about any outcome will be better than what was dished up at the same venue last Thursday night.

Richmond will be fine, but clearly they hadn’t got used to being back in the office after lockdown conceding four goals in the first quarter and not kicking one themselves.

The Tigers played catch up all night, the dewy and slippery conditions of the MCG were there for all to see and the overall performance was a bit rusty resulting in a draw and the lowest scoring AFL game since 1999.

On a positive note, Richmond can now lay claim to having been undefeated for an entire calendar year even if that includes a 81-day global pandemic enforced bye and a draw.

Being reigning premiers also helps that.

Despite believing in last week’s preview that the Hawks beating Geelong in Geelong would be another Clarkson masterstroke, it wasn’t to be.

Hawthorn was on the back foot all night and despite only being six-points down at half-time they went down by 10 goals against the rampaging Cats.

Shaun Burgoyne should consider himself lucky he’s playing this weekend after that sling tackle on Patrick Dangerfield only resulted in a fine from the match review officer.

You would think that a team like Richmond will be able to shake off the cobwebs of last week, get their heads into gear and get back to their dominant winning ways come Thursday night.

There are $2 lines on offer this week is an as good value bet you can get around.

best bet
WESTERN BULLDOGS VS GWS GIANTS
GWS Giants to win by 40+ @ $5.40

With both sides coming off bad Round 2 losses, it’ll be on for young and old this Friday night as another chapter is written in what is fast becoming a serious rivalry between the two clubs.

GWS will be filthy about their loss to North Melbourne last week.

Two goals up in the third quarter, GWS went into cruise control, faded away in the final term resulting in a 20 point loss to the Kangaroos at home.

The Western Bulldogs also went into their match last weekend against the Saints as the favourite but produced a rather ordinary performance going down by 39 points.

Kicking only seven goals for the match, the blow-torch is on Bevo and his men this week to prove they are worthy contenders in 2020.

There’s never a dull moment in a Dogs v Giants clash.

From that famous 2016 Preliminary Final, Toby Greene’s karate-chop on Luke Dalhaus in  2017 and tempers flared in last year’s Elimination Final in which GWS won by 58 points.

I have faith that the Giants can turn it around.

They looked the goods wayyyyy back in Round 1 when they convincingly beat the Cats and you could perhaps put last week as them being a bit rusty.

The Bulldogs, on the other hand, have some troubling signs.

Poor performances in both their games this season against Collingwood and the Saints should be cause for concern. 

With the shortened season, every game counts and a loss this weekend could have them writing off the year completely.

Not only do I think GWS will bounce back, but they’ll also bounce back in a big way and the 40+ margin is some of the best value you’ll find this weekend.

NORTH MELBOURNE VS SYDNEY
North Melbourne (-8.5) @ $2

There’s been a lot of changes in society of recent, but one thing remains the same – people writing off North Melbourne and North Melbourne winning as the underdog.

The Kangaroos were sensational last weekend with five unanswered goals in the second half being the key to a 20 point win over GWS.

Shaun Higgins played a blinder with 28 disposals and young-gun Cam Zurharr was amongst the Roos best with three sausage rolls to his name.

It might be Round 3 and in an unprecedented season, but North is currently second on the AFL ladder and undefeated.

Sydney was gallant in their six-point loss over the Bombers last weekend.

The Swans fighting out a close one against Essendon is nothing new and the likes of Jake Lloyd with 29 touches and Luke Parker kept Sydney in the game for most of the day.

They’ve now been involved in two heart-stoppers, although being spaced out over 82 days is best for the health and wellbeing of their supporters.

I’m expecting a highly competitive contest in this one, but North should be too good for the Swans.

The $2 line comes into play with the market setting it at -8.5 and I will be taking the Kangaroos to beat it.

COLLINGWOOD VS ST KILDA
Either team to win by less than 15.5 points @ $2.50

Had you only watched the first quarter of the Magpies clash against Richmond last week, you’d think they look the goods.

Kicking the first four goals of the match and keeping the Tigers to just one behind, Collingwood only kicked one goal for the rest of the night resulting in a frustrating low-scoring draw.

You would expect them to bounce back this weekend.

The Saints go into this game coming off an impressive 39-point win over the Western Bulldogs and displayed some of the most free-flowing and attacking football we’ve seen from them in years.

St.Kilda look like the kind of team that will be no easy beat and will cause plenty of headaches as well as land a big scalp or two.

I expect this game to be closer than most expect and happy to take either team by under 15.5 as a good value bet.

Geelong v Carlton
Geelong to win by 40+ @ $2.50

Don’t be a fool like yours truly and write off Geelong, especially when they are playing at home.

The Cats go into this game coming off a 61-point demolition of Hawthorn at GMHBA Stadium last Friday night and will go in firm favourites against Carlton at the Cattery this Saturday night.

It is easy to forget they did actually finish on top of the ladder after Round 23 last season and looked on the way to beat the Tigers at half-time of last year’s preliminary final.   

Geelong had no problem scoring last weekend and perhaps the shorter quarters mean they can get more out of Gazza in his old age.

Carlton and the Teague Train must be operated by a private company, given they tend to turn up late.

The Blues came back from seven goals down to eventually lose to the Dees by a point last weekend.

It would have been an amazing comeback, but they know they need to play four solid quarters of football and not just rely on the Dom Sheed method.

They have no chance of an upset over Geelong at the Cattery.

This will result in a 0-3 start to a season for the eighth consecutive year.

Carlton needs to get a winning-culture for the green-shoots to spring up, there’s plenty of signs to be hopeful – but it just won’t begin in this game.

Cats by plenty.

BRISBANE LIONS VS WEST COAST
Brisbane Lions to win by 1-39 @ $2.10

It was great to see the mighty Brisbane Lions (proudly sponsored by Neds) get the job done in the first of four consecutive games at the Gabbitor.

Charlie Cameron’s first-half was brilliant and Dayne Zorko saved the day to ensure a solid 12-point win over Freo.

The next few weeks will be telling to see just how much our boys have improved after an outstanding 2019 season.

No one expected West Coast to go down to the Gold Coast Suns, let alone by 44 points.

But this is 2020 so, it’s on-brand for the times we are in.

The Eagles will be hurting and given they are currently based in a hub, they won’t have the usual 5.5-hour flight from Perth to get to the game, rather the hour bus trip up the M1.

Perhaps it was a poor day at the office and relocating the entire football club to the other side of the country caught up with them?

I wouldn’t write them off yet, but you simply can’t go past the Lions at the Gabba.

Expect the pressure to be on WA Premier Mark McGowan to open up the border when the Lions do a number on the Eagles leaving them 0-2 in their Queensland hub.

GOLD COAST SUNS VS ADELAIDE
Gold Coast Suns to win by 1-24 @ $2.95

For the first time since Round 4, 2019 – the Gold Coast Suns go into a game the hot favourite against the hapless Adelaide Crows at Metricon Stadium this Sunday.

It was undoubtedly one of the best performances in the club’s history with a sensational 44 point win over the West Coast Eagles.

Much talk has surrounded young-gun Matt Rowell’s performance and the good news is – he won’t be leaving for Richmond in two years’ time.

As for Adelaide, they produced one of the clubs worst performances in years going down to Port by 75 points in the Showdown.

Many have the Crows pencilled in for a rebuild, but not in the category of producing performances as they dished-out last week as an excuse.

It’s too early to put the Crows down as wooden spooners but they don’t improve from last weekend, they’ll be at Winx-like odds to win it. 

It’s also too early to think the Suns have turned the corner.

They are a very young team still and can still be hit and miss. 

But, as is the trend in the early part of the footy season (based purely on the rounds not the dates) expect the Suns to get on roll and make it two-in-a-row this Sunday.

ESSENDON vs MELBOURNE
Either team to win by less than 15.5 points @ $2.25

The Bombers are hot!

Well, two wins by a goal over Sydney and Freo with an 80+ day break between matches-hot but alas, they have started season 2020 two-zip and in this reduced, crazy season we’re in it’s as good as it gets right now.

As for Melbourne, being ahead by seven goals and end up beating Carlton by one-point leaves a lot to be questioned.

This match is hard to get a feel for.

The Dees have only one game by more than 15 points since the start of last season and if they are to replicate the form that saw them reach the preliminary final back in 2018, they’ll need to start scoring, not to mention the stress long-suffering Melbourne fans are suffering.

I expect that under 15 points trend to continue, I just don’t know which team it will be in favour of in this game.

FREMANTLE VS PORT ADELAIDE
Port Adelaide (-19.5) @ $2

The clash of Carrara co-tenants finishes off Round 3 with Freo playing host to Port Adelaide.

Port are the in-form team of the competition!

Having been on top of the ladder for over 11 weeks you would normally think that, but this is only Round 3.

You can’t fault them though.

They demolished Adelaide in the Showdown and easily accounted for the Gold Coast Suns way back in Round 1.

You should expect them to make it 3-0 over Fremantle.

The Dockers almost pipped Brisbane and were involved in a close finish against Essendon at the start of the season.

The likes of Nat Fyfe and Michael Walters in the midfield keep them in the hunt and Matt Taberner has also impressed.

It’s in the backline that is Freo’s biggest weakness and facing Port Adelaide will be proof of that.

The market has the Power the firm favourite and the line set at -19.5 is another $2 special worth taking.