In a day short of value spread plays, I’m looking to make a play on the total here. The current total is set at 222.5 here, having already come down from the 223 opener, and I still see some value on the under.
Dame Lillard has already been ruled out for this one and Portland games have trended under in his absence. Portland just haven’t been a good road team all season, with their 10-22 record largely due to poor offence.
While Orlando are nothing special, they look set for a second consecutive playoff berth this season. They hang their hat on the defensive end, where they can contain limited offences like the Portland one without Dame.
222.5 is a relatively average total in today’s NBA, which I think is too high here due to the injuries and anticipated slow pace.
It takes a brave man to bet against Milwaukee at the minute, but the value is there in this matchup. Miami are getting 2 points as a home underdog here and I think they’ve got every chance to win it outright.
This is a side that has been dynamite at home all season, going 25-4 straight up and 19-9-1 ATS. Fatigue shouldn’t be an issue either, with this being their of a 4-game home stand.
Injuries and fatigue should both be against Milwaukee in this matchup. This is their third game in 4 nights, playing yesterday against the Hornets. Kyle Korver and Khris Middleton both missed that clash and both could very easily miss this one too.
Giannis has also been dealing with some back soreness of late, which isn’t ideal against Miami’s wing depth. This has all the makings of a very competitive game and getting the 2 points with Miami could make all the difference.