Saturday, March 7

New Orleans Pelicans vs Miami Heat, 12 pm
Pels -1.5

I like the spot for New Orleans here, opening as 1.5-point home favourites over Miami. This is a bet against Miami’s poor road form, with the Heat going 13-18 straight up and 12-19 ATS on the road thus far.

The Pels have looked much better since the return of Zion Williamson and still aren’t completely out of the playoff race. They’re doing relatively well from an injury standpoint, with only JJ Redick expected to miss this one.

The Heat have been in good form of late, but a lot of this is due to their home-heavy schedule. They have a huge home/road disparity this season, making it quite difficult to win against an upstart New Orleans side.

The line suggests this game will be quite close, which I agree with. I think New Orleans just edge it here, likely due to a big game from Zion.

Dallas Mavericks vs Memphis Grizzlies, 12:30 pm
Mavs -8

The Mavericks are sizeable 8-point favourites here, a number that I think they can and should cover. Memphis have slipped a little bit of late and I don’t think they’re well-equipped to handle the Dallas offence.

Dallas haven’t been great as a home side this season, going just 17-14 straight up and 12-18-1 ATS. That said, I think they’re starting to become quite undervalued at home as a result.

Their injury report is rather extensive for this one, however most of their key players are likely to suit up here. The Grizzlies are still decimated at the forward spots, which doesn’t bode well against the duo of Doncic and Porzingis.

Dallas is all but assured of a playoff spot, although they’re still battling hard with OKC for the #6 seed. I expect a motivated and professional performance here, one that likely results in a win and cover.