With Giannis’ status up in the air, this line has opened up as Milwaukee -5.5. I think Giannis is unlikely to play here, making Phoenix great value at this number.
Phoenix haven’t been a great home side at all this season, but their win over Portland last time out should prove to be rejuvenating. Milwaukee’s defence takes a real hit without Giannis and the Booker/Baynes duo could prove deadly again here.
From a fatigue standpoint, the Bucks are also in the middle of a cross-country West Coast trip. They just played a marquee game against the Lakers on Saturday, before flying to Phoenix for an early start. This is a prime letdown spot, especially considering all the injuries.
There’s no reason Phoenix shouldn’t be well-rested here, playing their 6th consecutive home game. Only Oubre and Ayton are expected to miss here, meaning most of their original rotation is intact.
Through the key number of 5, I see some great value on Phoenix here. I wouldn’t be against the moneyline either, currently around $3.
The Rockets open as 9-point favourites here and I think they’re good value to win and cover. They had a disastrous loss in Charlotte last night, but this is a prime bounce back spot.
Russell Westbrook sat out last night due to rest and his return should really bolster the offence here. Houston have impressively won 70% of their home games this season, while Orlando are a poor 12-20 on the road.
Orlando are also really banged up here, likely entering this game without Fournier, Isaac, and Aminu. This really weakens them on both ends of the floor in a game where they’re already at a disadvantage. Coach Steve Clifford has also been battling some health concerns and may not be 100% here.
The Magic defence has been shaky lately and I don’t see how they cope with Houston’s small ball 5. This has the makings of a high-scoring affair, so I’m not too worried about laying 9 points here.